On December 1, 2011, just after three months in power, the King Cobra led-PF government proudly announced The Technical Committee on drafting the people driven national Constitution. The Technical Committee’s was a result of the PF and UNDP victory on blocking the MMD-led draft Constitution in Parliament in 2011. Three years later, Zambians are wondering why King Cobra, the man of action, has refused to release the draft constitution, and has become so arrogant about it.
In my book, Raised Hopes, Shattered dreams, I make the case that African democracy will not develop without a stable constitution. I argue that despite the many attempts to draft stable constitutions, in most African countries, new constitutions are meant to enhance the powers of the president and his ruling party. Zambia, for instance, has under gone a number of constitutional reviews since independence: the Mainza Chona in 1973, the Patrick Mvunga in 1991, the John Mwanakatwe in 1996, and the Willa Mung’omba in 2005 and now the P.F.
President Kaunda was responsible for the first two, while the successive reigns of Frederick Chiluba and Levy Mwanawasa led to the 1996 and 2005 constitutional review processes respectively. Mwanawasa began this process, and Rupiya Banda inherited the process until its rejection in 2011. Since these constitutions serve the interests of the president and his party, they have short lifespan despite costing us billions of Kwachas, which would save many lives at U.T.H.
Since the president’s party determines what constitutes the new constitution and the constitution-making process, Zambian constitutions are usually biased to the party in power. As the rejection of the 2011 draft constitution revealed, the national constitution should be above party interests. Sadly this is the very reason why President Sata hates the new constitution. It does not work to his advantage.
A new Constitution will not benefit Sata
King Cobra knows too well that he has lost popularity on many fronts as well as created many enemies in the opposition. He also knows that his second term hangs on the new constitution—how can he give Zambians a new constitution while securing his chance of winning the 2016 elections? Should he allow the constitution debates too early, it will be passed before 2016—making it the basis of the 2016 elections. This is Sata’s biggest fear since the new constitution states: “Elections to the office of President shall be conducted directly on the basis of a majoritarian system, where the winning candidate must receive not less than fifty percent plus one vote of the valid votes cast.” It is this article that is giving King Cobra sleepless nights.
King Cobra knows that since the return to multi-party democracy, no President has been elected with 50% of the total vote cast-let alone 50+1 aside from Chiluba’s 1991, and the controversial 1996 elections. At the time of his highest popularity, King Cobra only managed to get 42.24%. So he is aware that should we have a re-run, the opposition is likely to join hands to remove him from power—thereby sending him and his cadres to jail in old age.
How Sata may play the cards to his favor
Here, his strategy is to delay the constitution as much as possible. In this scenario, the president would love to have the referendum during the 2016 elections. This argument will be highly convincing since it will be defended on the altar of economics—it’s cheaper to hold two elections at once. The sad thing is that the 2016 elections will then be held under the current constitution—making it possible for him to win with a very small margin.
The second scenario is where he would let it go to parliament and be voted on. To do this, President Sata has to ensure that he has the majority votes to reject or to remove the 50 + 1 article from the new constitution—which is possible since he has more MPs.
The final scenario is where President Sata dissolves the parliament, and then calls for early elections, just as Kaunda did in 1968. This scenario is likely—especially as demands for the new constitution increase in the nation. Whereas it is tempting to celebrate this move, the new elections will be held under the old constitution. This situation will give Sata his second term—making it possible for him to remain in power for at least 8 years, which is not bad for the old man.
The way forward
No party will win the 2016 presidency if we demand 50+1; and here is Sata’s salvation or curse. Hold the joint referendum and general election in 2016—King COBRA gets his second term with less than 30 percent –knowing too well that the opposition will share the remaining 70 percent. Allow it—he falls since the opposition is likely to unite against its common enemy—the Patriotic Front. So rather than demanding the new constitution, we should defend the 50+1 at all costs; we should insist that even if the president dissolves the parliament—the 50+1 clause will be the basis for the 2016 elections. Failure to do so, King cobra will be biting us until 2021–the scandal mother Zambia cannot afford!
By Rev. Canon Dr. Kapya John Kaoma
Useless article! we want a constitution in full not just 50+1 nonsense.. PF should do like wise and give us a constitution we start focusing on other things… this time they are spending arguing with the opposition can be used for other productive things
I will not be shocked if I hear the author of the above article committed suicide too
Some Articles are very good and they equip the person being thought to be discredited with a lot of information for them to make an informed decision. You cant see that this article is giving alternative ways of handling the process. There is no condemnation at all but giving ideas and suggestions on how our President should manage the constitution process. This is a very good article and I am sure the author can not commit suicide. He is a very clever person. Thanks for the insight.
Timely warning. I hope our MPs are hearing and will take this seriously.
Very insightful and true, we need to defend 50+1 at all costs, it is the only way to get out of this mess we created, without 50+1, we will be ruled ignorant PF for a long time.
We reject Pf in the mighty name of Jesus. Awe twanaka ibwelenimo fye abantu tabale mifwaya. Give us the constitution now !
Jesus ali cete! haha
He is no longer the king cobra now he is the queen cobra who has been tamed by Mmembe
No sir, do not mislead the nation. This is no time to change the direction on this matter. We need a constitution which is beyond a person’s interest or a tool of removing someone from power. We need a progressive document in which we shall be happy to be ruled by in line with changing times and trends.
The King Cobra’s Curse / blessing!
TV PROGRAMMES ARE RATED BY THE NUMBER OF VIEWERS.
SO WHO IS MORE POPULAR?
FACEBOOK RESULTS.
THE CURSE-MICHAEL CHILUFYA SATA, THE REPUBLICAN PRESIDENT
= 95,000 FOLLOWERS (4 MONTHS)
HH, PRESIDENT, BANTUSTAN PARTY = 45,000 FOLLOWERS (4 YEARS)
MILES SAMPLE PF MP = 45,000 FOLLOWERS (4 MONTHS)
GBM, PF MP = 30,000 FOLLOWERS (1 YEAR)
I BET COME 2016,
YES, YOU CAN WIN THE SOCIAL MEDIA AND PRESS CONFERENCE VOTE.
BUT THE PARTY WILL BE OVER EVEN BEFORE THE VOTE COUNT IS COMPLETED.
What is the line of thinking are you putting across. Sata is everyone’s concern, so his page is followed. Look at what he is posting or is it Chella’s postings. The quality and depth of the content on that page leave much to be desired. Talking about 360, 000 new jobs when we have around 470, 000 people contributing to the govt account as PAYE. Meaning all the jobs he is taking about are at casual level, what a shame.
@LUAPULA PREMIER
You forgot ZWD facebook likes which are currently at 137,037
Totally agree with U Zed@crossroad. The issues on FB page should be addressing fundamental issues as regards changes in policy on mangement of public institutions, vis a vis the various boards and commissions and encouraging independence in the running of three organs.
Sata should not be misled by the number of likes on his FB page. Sometimes we like pages so as to monitor somebody’s reasoning and actions, even the opposition have liked the same in order to have access to his postings and oppose them.
Therefore, the number of likes on FB are not a good indicator of peoples preference and one’s influence.
I always ask myself this question: Who knows the definition of a “Job” in the Zambian contest?
indeed useless article by a useless Rev. Dr., just wait for the technical committee to hand over the report to the president then thats when you will start questioning the political will of King Cobra. You can’t bulldose the constitution based on one article of 50 + 1 leaving out the rest. Democracy is not about elections alone.
Democracy is about .
Elections are simply a way to choose who I want to represent my voice in the deliberations since I am busy working.
So, I pay taxes to sustain the individual I chose to reproduce my voice.
The old man lied to Zambians and to me it’s total disrespect for 13million people, u must be out of your damn mind to think that he deserves any respect and any second term
Definitely, He, in old age, will be sent to jail with his friends, the Mmembes, kabimbas, Chikwandas etc for corruption.
The PF is the only party which has shown kin interest in changing poverty levels of this country.
These petty issues of new constitution are just A political strategy of a few selfish Zambians such as HH who doesn’t understand the constitution himself. Most of HH’s MPs are already in two terms of which it is disadvantaging them.
That fellow HH who is sponsoring people like ‘By Rev. Canon Dr. Kapya John Kaoma’, whoever they are, wants to use poor Zambians gain political mileage and hence his businesses. He is the same one, without heart, who fueled the sale of Zambians companies.
How can we trust the Bantustan HH?
But thanks to Comrade Sata for reversing some of the evil decision made by these MMD minions and HH. Who ever thought of Zambian Railways to be back on Track, NCZ,…
Arrogant Hon
Uwe Siamunene,
Ndaa mibuzyo yo tatwe:
Kansyo me ndali kuyeeya kuti Ba-Zambezi bonse mbasongo alimwi mba mpaka. Uwe Siamunene mwati uli Mu-Zambezi nchonzyo? Uli Mu-Zambezi wa kuli uwe nunyina maano? Ani ubanzi kutazwa biyo mu UPND akunjila mu PF kutegwa tubone nainga waibweza Sinazongwe?
Silly article. How can one base an argument over the constitution on 50+1? It shows the ulterior motives behind. Demand for the entire constitution covering all articles!
Shall the 50+1 make Zambia a paradise. You people are jokers.
No constitution has ever made a country paradise. WTF are you talking about, munthu?
So what are you huffing and puffing for, when there is a constitution in place already? Better to wait until the new one is brought to the Zambians, not this juvenile ranting by the opposition MPs.
There are so many pressing issues that need to be addressed. Let the president come out and address the nation. There is no unity in the nation the division is getting wide and wider, where on earth can the armed police surround the National Assembly and you expect the opposition mps under the threat by a ruling party carder to participate on national issues and development freely on a gun point.. Things are not okey the National Assembly need to be addressed and put things in order. The speaker is on his own the vice and pf ministers on their own the opposition mps in there mute world of intimidation. Patrick Matibini nkani ya mukulila he needs help. Those holding the const. should help the speaker make a rulling. We want to know in which direction this country is taking us to.
Rev. Kapya you write very well. Your article flows well from point to point. If only your assertions were true and could be backed by hard evidence.
Yours is a mere concoction of ideas based on your personal thoughts from your own head, making it weak. So yours is an opinion and not a scholarly product. I hope your book Raised Hopes, Shattered Dreams is deeper, more factual and analytical otherwise I wont buy it and that will be one less buyer for you.
Do better next time by making some references to actual statements from the subject, in this case King Cobra. Funny how the church has taken to joining and commenting on politics these days.
New Cnstitution with 50+1 is all that people need and want, nothing less or more.
The main problem with the PF is 1. 50 +1 and also the age clause. The age cannot be manipulated whilst 50+1 can through negotiations with opposition parties like MMD and funding some UPND members to bring confusion. So its not only the 50+1 that is a major concern but age
We need the constution as well…
we’re hungry, they eat alone….
once they give us constution, then I’ll be eating well too
Sata , will never give you what you want the chap , wants to be there till the cows get back home. Fred wants to eat.
kekekekeeke..yakosa..we want the new constitution..period..!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Well, like it or not, it is a thought provoking article. The reality is our opposition in their current fragmented state will have a hard time defeating this bl00d sncking king munyopi (I think he is no longer a Cobra who controls everything from the police to the electoral commission. He can rig his way into winning an election any day if he wanted to. He can declare marshal law and arrest HH or Mumba the day before an election if he feels threatened – this is Mugabe’s friend.
But can we have both? Or even at least one? Make no mistake, nothing can move this guy’s inflated ego other than massive citizen protests that can bring his govt to a complete halt. However even if we had 50 + 1% without curbing his overarching powers, he can still win an election.
Your insult waters down your argument. No need to read the rest. Good day.
The AUTHOR is really a “CANON” very timely warning to those who want to be President of Zambia, From the look of things SATA will release the condtitution before 2016 and will opt to take it to parliament on the basis of no money for referendum, hence useless clauses engineered by UPND will be gunned down ..VIVA PABWATO
APART FROM THE 50+1 CLAUSE, PLEASE NOTE THAT THE PRESENT CONSTITUTION IS A DICTATOR’S CHARTER WITH ENORMOUS POWERS FOR THE PRESIDENT WHICH WERE INHERITED FROM THE ONE PARTY STATE ERA.
WHEN KK GAVE UP POWER THE SINGLE MOST IMPORTANT CLAUSE THAT WAS REMOVED WAS THE INFAMOUS CLAUSE 4 WHICH BARRED OTHER PARTIES. OTHERWISW KK’s DICTATORIAL CONSTITUTION REMAINED INTACT TO ALL INTENTS AND PURPOSES.
THAT IS WHY THE CURRENT REGIME IS IN LOVE WITH THE CURRENT CONSTITUTION!!
People – let us think beyond now, say in 15 years when neither Sata is president nor HH is apiring to be one. the 50+1 vote would mean a popular president with 49% of the vote can easily be denied presidency if two opposing candidates with 23% and 28% can combine efforts. This would mean a less popular person will run the affairs of the country. For a developing country like ours, re-running a general election needs colossal budgets which might prove very expensive. In countries where this is the case, there have been times when elections have been re-run even 3 times, effectively without a president for a year. Is this the path we want to take? I can understand this might be beneficial for UPND and MMD but do really want MMD back in power in union with UPND after their 20 yrs rec ?
The debate over 50+1 ended a long time ago.The proposed new constitution awaits adoption.And why do you only look at one side of the issue what about an unpopular president being elected simply because he has a majority vote.Just get ready to give up the gravy spoon baba your 5 minutes of fame are over.
@Point
SORRY, WHICH CREDIBLE CITIZEN READS ZWD?
IN 2011, ZWD COUNT OR WAS IT A MISCOUNT WAS 1MILLION FOR HH.
KANYAMA, LUSAKA IN GENERAL AND CB HAD GONE UPND.
ZWD WAS, LIKE TODAY, A BUZZ WITH NEWS ABOUT UPND’S FORMATION OF THE NEXT GOVERNMENT AFTER MMD.
ZAMBIA IS A JUNGLE,THE MIGHT JUNGLE WHERE THE LION SLEEP FOR THE NIGHT….
JUST WAIT…
@ANALYST
WE ALL AGREE WITH YOU 100%.
“OUR PRESENT CONSTITUTION IS A DICTATOR’S CHARTER WHICH GIVES ENORMOUS POWERS TO THE PRESIDENT AND THAT IT WAS INHERITED FROM THE ONE PARTY STATE ERA”…BUT WHEN DID YOU REALIZE THAT?
IF YOU WERE PATIENT WITH THE MMD FOR 20 YEARS, WHAT IS THE FUZZ ABOUT? THIS GOVERNMENT HAS BEEN IN OFFICE BARELY FOR 2 YEARS.
SO WHY AND WHAT FOR THE RUSH NOW?
More informative articles like this please. …thank you very much author! !
Constitution, constitution, constitution is all we hear these days in this God forsaken country. Will our people eat this same constitution? Will newly born babies stop dying due to lack of midwives and doctors if we have this new constitution? What will change in ordinary people’s lives living in villages and urban shanty compounds if we had that same constitution delivered today? It is a fallacy that is being used to mentally manipulate the masses against the current government so that come 2016 we replace it with another hopeless human government. When people grumble, God lets them be to their own vices! With new constitution or not this country simply needs a lot of work to get majority poor people out of the doldrums they are in. We need unity, hard work and peace right now!
Yes, we will eat the constitution as its a set of fundamental principles according to which a state is governed….if this is NOT paramount to you then you are wasting your time here.
Before the technical committee hands over the document, they should include an article to force the president to hold press conference NOT facebook:)
Lack of understanding, shortsightedness, shallowmindedness and misplacement of priorities has cost the opposition chances to score points. If I were to give the opposition marks I would give them zero. You dont inspire the people of zambia because you do not understand zambian politics. Ask yourselves what has preoccupied the mind of an average zambian today? Constitution! No, but Development. Even Sata in his days never used constitution as a compagn tool because he knew very few zambians understood and paid attention to this document. Your education as made you dull that you can not enterprate times, be wise. A people driven constitution is coming and MC Sata will score marks on this one and the opposition will cry faul as you usual. In Politics know your opponents’ weakness, mistakes…
The new constitution is a hot potato in PF’s mouth, too late to spit and too hot to swallow!
Whatever, pf has lost massive popularity. Whether he uses whatever ruse pipo are geared to vote him out he’s the worst president zambia has had. Kabimba now resorts to charms in the National Assembly (ZWD), sad for pf useless MPs!