By Henry Kyambalesa:
I wish to comment on discrepancies in the reported levels of poverty in Zambia following a recent Zambia Daily Mail report in which the Director of Central Statistical Office (CSO) is quoted as having said that the poverty level in Zambia had declined from 68.1% to 59.3% between 1996 and 2006.
It is regrettable that, over the years, there have been serious discrepancies in the reported levels of poverty in Zambia. In this regard, I wish to cite a few of such reports, which may be paraphrased as follows:
Times of Zambia (October 2005), “Poverty Levels Drop to 68 p.c.,” by Times Reporter: Poverty incidence in Zambia has dropped from 73% in 1998 to 68% in 2005, a CSO survey has revealed. According to a statement released by CSO director Buleti Nsemukila, the preliminary results of the Living Conditions Monitoring Survey of 2004 revealed that the incidence of poverty in terms of head counts had reduced by 7%.
Times of Zambia (November 2009), “Poverty Levels Go Down,” by Times Reporter: Zambia recorded reduced poverty levels from 80% to 64% midway through the Fifth National Development Plan (FNDP), according to Finance and National Planning Minister Situmbeko Musokotwane.
Zambia Daily Mail (January 2010), “Poverty Levels Drop,” by Nancy Mwape: Zambia’s poverty level has declined from 68.1% in 1996 to 59.3% in 2006, CSO director Efreda Chulu is quoted as having said this at a press briefing in Lusaka recently.
There is clearly a need for the government to create an autonomous “Bureau of Statistics and Archives” to replace the CSO so that it can freely and independently collect, process, maintain, and publish essential data and information about our country. The Bureau should also assume complete responsibility over the operations of the National Archives of Zambia.
Such a Bureau is necessary if we are to forestall the potential for fudging and/or manipulating of vital data and information. The autonomy of the Bureau could also lend a great deal of credence to the data and information published about the country. There is perhaps no other way in which leaders in the MMD, the ruling political party, are going to exonerate themselves from suspicions that they are trying to fudge national statistics for political gain.
Ok today I must agree with you on the creaction of an independent bureau as opposed to the current one under MOFNP.
Good Evening
Basically, there’s nothing wrong with Kyambalesa’s call for an autonomous “Bureau of Statistics and Archives”. What guarantee is there, however, that even here there wont be any manipulation of data and information? Considering the expenditures and wide range of duties involved in the collecting of data and procesing of information, I think it would make more sense to restructure the CSO according to the objectives of the BSA. Just a suggestion…what do other bloggers think?
What the CSO like most important public institution need is more funding and capacity building for its projects and staff respectively. The independent bureau may not necessary be the solution here, it may end up duplicating CSO work and erring and confuse us even more.
Mr kyambalesa,your penchat for duplicity of govt agencies is baffling to the the least.Last time you said the same issue about the DDMU under the office of VP.Do you doubt the technocrats running these agencies? cos the same technocrats will run your proposed independent bureau and if they are interfered with this time,what will stop the Govt to do the same to the “independent” bureau?
Sharp shooter:
I take your post as mine. It seems Mr Kyabalesa has a strong distate for central government. He proposes that thing will run better under an autonomous body. alas that is not always the case. Henry try to study the CSO and understand its operations. Suspicious people will always see red even when its green. Are these figures really conflicting or is our interpretation the statistics wrong? if the bureau gets peanuts as budget then you will inherit CSO inadequecies.
Zambia beat Korea 4:2 what do you say guys? that is statistic too.
Sharp Shooter, I have read this article a couple of times and cannot see why you are accusing Henry of having a penchant for duplicity. The author is suggesting that CSO should be merged with the National Archives of Zambia to establish a “Bureau of Statistics and Archives.” I do not see how duplicity comes in here! Or may be you do not understand the meaning of the word “duplicity”? Check your dictionary, if you have any. By the way, you are probably ignorant to the fact that the so-called “technocrats” lose their edge and objectivity when they work under autocrats like Rupiah, Kunda, and Shikapwasha in order to protect themselves from being fired. So, I agree with Henry a 100%.
Here are the poverty rates from 1991 to 2006.
1991: 70%
1993: 74%
1996: 69%
1998: 73%
2004: 68%
2006: 64%
source: zamstats . gov . zm / lcm . php
TOZ (2005): Poverty incidence in Zambia has dropped from 73% in 1998 to 68% in 2005
TOZ (2009): Zambia recorded reduced poverty levels from 80% to 64% (note: dates not given)
TOZ (2010): Zambia’s poverty level has declined from 68.1% in 1996 to 59.3% in 2006
——————–
Can someone please show me where the conflicts are. Unless there is evidence of meddling in the CSO’s activities, the CSO stays.
Here is a statement from the CSO monthly bulletin of December 2009. It is found in the “Living Conditions” section.
“The Central statistical office revised the
poverty lines of the Living conditions
Monitoring surveys of 1996, 1998, 2004
and 2006. This is in tune with changes in
international methodologies and
standards on the measurement of
poverty. These standards are periodically
updated.”
The data then shows:
1996 (P0):68.1%
1998 (P0):66.8%
2004 (P0):58.4%
2006 (P0):59.3%
source: zamstats . gov . zm / media / vol _ 81 _ 2009 _ the _ monthly _ december . pdf
Mr. Kyambalesa, if you so disagree with the statistics, you can establish your own data mining firm that would gather the same data according to international accepted standards. Such data in terms of GDP, Living Conditions, Trade surpluses and deficits, inflation, etc can be sold to NGO’s, banking and insurance companies and newspapers just to name a few.
You can then provide your own objective independent alternative statistics to the ones that are gathered by the CSO. What you can also do is publish the monthly bulletin of your data mining firm and distribute it to Zambians for free through hard copies as well as the internet. You can gain revenue through advertisements and special exclusive data requests from different companies.
Kyambalesa expects ststistical data to be exact like in a physics experiment. If he is a UNZA graduate i can easily tell he is from the NS. I went through NS myself, so i can recognise my collegues ‘concrete’ thinking as regards social sciences. Monko we shouldn’t have been laughing at our friends who did chikwakwa.
I see a serious discrepancy after a curious look at the data provided by Mr. Capitalist and what Henry has provided. In November 2009, Finance and National Planning Minister Situmbeko Musokotwane informed the nation that Zambia had recorded reduced poverty levels from 80% to 64% midway through the Fifth National Development Plan (FNDP). The FNDP is supposed to run from 2006 to 2010. Where did the Honorable Minister get these figures because they do not appear in the raw data (64% in 2006) and the revised data (59.3% in 2006) presented by Mr. Capitalist? So, the poverty levels rose from 64% (or 59.3%) to 80% after 2006 and dropped drastically to 64% by 2008? The discrepancy is too large to ignore!
The data for 1996 has a flaw. 64% and 59.3% are not the same number unless one missed the class on inequalities. The issue of changing poverty level estimation changes is irrelevant. This should be refleted in the release. If one decides to put the disclamimer that the estimation methodology has changed then they must provide a revision of all previous estimates. There is also another angle here. Our repoters are poor at reporting stastical based reports.
#11 obviously you have not heard of P332 Stastical physicsand thermal dynamics in NS at UNZA. This is a harder course than any in the social sciences.
Henry, the biggest problem is attitude. The attitude in our public service institutions is simply not fit for purpose. What we need is not piece-meal approach but a complete restructuring of the Zambian public service, that is if we have a new government next year.
why talk about figures?numbers mean squat to a man who can’t feed his family or take his sick child to hospital..why do you Zambians like to yap kanshi?morning,afternoon,evening yap yap yap yap!!!while time flies,leave those whose job is to look at numbers crunch numbers,let those who protect the innocent protect them and let those whose calling is to work for the masses do,CSO has been instrumental as a wing for the president to tell donors lies about projects,now someone answer this if these crunchers report about the past can they look into the future and assist in projecting the path the country is going????economically…..
I totally disagree with this proposal. Statistics and achieves belong to the people of Zambia and under no circumstance should these be in the hands of independent organisations. There is nothing to stop other interested groups from collating their own statistics. The Jesuit Centre does this. In general, whatever the source of statistics, people should read them with large dose of salt. Stats are probabilities!
#7(Pandora Box),Could not reply immediately cos I was at church.
One thing you ought to undrestand is The National Archives is there to keep and care for records whereas CSO is part of Ministry of Finance to quickly avail data for economic and national planning.Are you saying the ministry will have to go and fetch for data to this proposed Bureau by Kyambalesa before planning?Duplicity comes in cos the Ministry will still maintain staff to handle statistics necessary for national planninng while more will be employed to man Kyambalesa’s
Bureau and costing Govt more.I understand the word very well,so no need for the Dic.
Thanks for this article. There is nothing wrong with re-calcualting the poverty figures but it must fully explained. Who updates the standards and how did they do it? This must be explained in plain english. It is perculiar that poverty levels are going down when more and more people are suffering. Is this not a political move?
Although there is need for statistical reform in Zambia, merely changing to a bureau will not solve any problems. The UK still has a statistical office and it works well and so does Canada, Ghana and South Africa. Clearly, there is a management problem at CSO if results from a 2006 survey are published in 2010. Also, the present statistics law may not support production of good and timely statistics. Lastly, private institutions are suited for this type of work.
THE SAINT at posting #17 … I do not understand the basis of the following statement: “Statistics and archives belong to the people of Zambia and under no circumstance should these be in the hands of independent organisations”. The author’s proposal is for an autonomous government agency in the name of “Bureau of Statistics and Archives”. You probably did not take enough time to read and understand the content of the article.
Sharp Shooter (#18), you sound like you work for CSO. It is not only the Ministry of Finance and National Planning which uses the services of CSO. The data collected, processed, published, and preserved by CSO is made available to all government institutions, the private sector and the wider national and international community. On the other hand, the mandate of the National Archives of Zambia is to collect, care for, and preserve public records. Statistical information is part and parcel of public records. So, pulling the resources of CSO and NAZ would actually provide a one-stop source of statistical information and public records. Henry’s idea, therefore, sounds good on paper at least.
How come the information provided by Mr. Capitalist starts in 1991? Was this the year CSO started gauging poverty levels in Zambia, or it is designed to show that the MMD has been doing a good job in reducing poverty levels? I am suspicious because the information provided by Mr. Capitalist at posting #8 shows ups and downs but that which he/she has provided at posting #9 shows a downward trend. I guess Mr. Capitalist has some explaining to do. I do not think this is entirely in tune with changes in international methodologies and standards on the measurement of poverty. I smell a rat!
Here are the poverty rates from 1991 to 2006.
1991: 70%
1993: 74%
1996: 69%
1998: 73%
2004: 68%
2006: 64%
source: zamstats . gov . zm / lcm . php
TOZ (2005): Poverty incidence in Zambia has dropped from 73% in 1998 to 68% in 2005
TOZ (2009): Zambia recorded reduced poverty levels from 80% to 64% (note: dates not given)
TOZ (2010): Zambia’s poverty level has declined from 68.1% in 1996 to 59.3% in 2006
——————–
Can someone please show me where the conflicts are. Unless there is evidence of meddling in the CSO’s activities, the CSO stays.
Henry my brother, please stop looking for baseless areas to attack government just because you’ve been offered a job by PF. Learn to call a spade a spade. It is sad to see you quote misguided (misreported) newspaper articles in place of official CSO stats. Education should teach you not to follow the news makers blindly but to search for official data when you intend to prove a point. I am sure it must pain terribly to see that RB has out done Levy in his economic rebound programme. By 2011 you’ll be ready to commit suicide if RB keeps up the good work. Stop polarizing yourself with division and start thinking like a united Zambian first.
5. MapondoYaMbuzi,
” It seems Mr Kyabalesa has a strong distate for central government. He proposes that thing will run better under an autonomous body. ”
Your criticism I think is slightly off the mark, because such an autonomous body would ALSO be part of the state.
What is needed is a separation of government (the President, cabinet, MPs) and the state (civil service, parastatals and autonomous bodies like what would be the CSO).
Separation of the state and government and of the government and ruling party are essential for progress to be made.
The ‘permanent business of government’ (civil service) should be responsive to changes in policy by the elected government, but should otherwise be independent in the execution of it’s tasks.
Mike Kyambalesa (post #24), you should answer the querries raised at postings #12 and 22 before you accuse Henry of any wrong doing. Henry has a good point, and I am in dull support of his suggestion for an autnomous Bureau of Statistics and Archives. We should take it for what it is — a suggestion. By the way, news reporters report the news, they do not make the news as you are suggesting. As for insinuation that he has been offered a job by PF, that is his job to explain. What I know is that Henry is our current president in the Agenda for Change (AfC) party.
26 – I can clearly see that you are in dull support of Henry. If you read all his writings, you’ll notice that he contradicts himself from one document to another. In one instance he stated that govt was too big and that many departments can be merged to form a smaller government. Now because he feels pain that RB has done the economy good, he is supporting fragmenting the govt even further starting with the CSO. Its not hard to identify blind hate in my brother. Therefore, i agree with you when you say you are in dull support of Henry’s suggestions.
Mike Kyambalesa at #27: I am sorry I typed “dull” instead of “full” but this is a mistake any fool could have caught simply by reading the content of the comment, even the fact that “d” is close to “f” on the keyboard. All the same, what Henry is suggesting is not a contradiction to his advocacy for a smaller government; it is in fact in support of his advocacy. Merging CSO and the National Archives of Zambia would lead to a smaller number of government agencies. You are probably not thinking to suggest that this is a contradiction; it is a common disease among many Zambians to fail to see even the simplest of ideas. You are caught up in the same trap.
As far as CSO is concerned, i persnally think before you even start thiking of Bureaus, you should take a close look at the calkibre of managment running the institution. What kind of management style do they have? Do they work with time when producing these reports because if you collect data in say 2004 and you publish in 2008, isn’t that a little dated? The last time i checkd with this institution, i found that majority of the so called ‘management staf’ were so old fashioned and their work ethics are questionable. Its like no one pays attention to these institutions and yet they are the most important institutions that need to be watched with a close eye because this info is used for development. Computerisation is alittle backwards. CSO needs an overhaul period.
Hire vibrant managers who have the drive and direction to lead and change the attitudes and mentality of the staff. The government worker mentality is terrible in this institution. This does not apply to everyone but this culture is way out of control. People need to understand why they are hired and what is expected of them. This institution is valuable to be run in such a manner. Stop this Seniority BS and let people who have shown leadership, have qualifications and the skills run the institution.
Howdy! This article could not be written any better!
Going through this post reminds me of my previous roommate!
He continually kept talking about this. I’ll forward this information to him.
Fairly certain he’s going to have a great read.
Thank you for sharing!
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