By Wesley Ngwenya
Over the last few weeks, I have been looking back at the last decade particularly on the impact it has had on the Zambian marketplace. The last ten years, in Zambia, has seen a huge investment in real estate and property development. Zambia now booms with many shopping complexes all over the country. Housing estates all around Lusaka are equally booming.
Perhaps, another huge economic development that is new in Zambia is the emergence of banks and other micro lending institutions. In 2009 alone, Zambia saw five new commercial banks on the market—the largest number of new banks in a single year. Micro lending institutions continue to be on the rise, as a result this is creating a new need on the market—financial advisory and debt collection. Here are business opportunities to explore in Zambia. I have already written comprehensive business plans on this. Anyone interested?
Chinese investment in Zambia increased significantly in the last 10 years. It is estimated that by the end of 2008, Chinese investment in Zambia reached $800 million, representing a growth of over 35 percent as compared to the previous years. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) from China is likely to double if not triple in the next 10 years. Therefore, the next decade will continue to see an increase in Chinese investors looking for opportunities in agriculture, tourism, manufacturing and mining sectors.
The last ten years have all not been uphill. There have been a few downturns—Zambia was hit with the recent global economic crisis which saw copper prices fall. As a result, mining companies closed including other supporting industries. This meant little or no revenue for the government which strongly depends on taxing mining companies. Thankfully, the copper prices have risen again. However, it is now time the Zambian government explored other options of raising revenue.
In the next ten years there will be a huge increase in food production provided the government creates the right environment and implements the right policies. There is a sense of urgency for many Zambians who are involved in farming, food preservation and using new and more productive farming methods. In addition, many international organizations are at our mercy and investing hugely in this department. Zambia has all the necessary resources to make it the food basket for the southern region by 2020.
Another undoubtedly likely boom in Zambia is going to the internet use. Currently, high speed internet in Africa is at about 2% and perhaps lower in Zambia. The fiber optic cable from East Africa will bring about a big change in the way the internet will be used. With high speed internet we will see many households having internet in their homes. Therefore, many businesses will begin to align themselves on the web so as to target the users. Internet advertising will likely increase since it is cheaper, more targeted and easily updated.
Although many things will become more and more efficient and even cheaper I have big reservations for the transportation industry. At the rate we are going, in this country, we shall continue paying heavily on transportation and communication. There is not much investment on roads, railway lines and other forms of transportation even when there will be an additional million cars in the decade. This will just mean transportation will become slower and more expensive.
In Zambia, there are mainly three mobile phone service providers. The market is controlled by these three and new entrants into the market face insurmountable challenges. In this decade, the phone companies will continue reaping huge profits. There may be some efficiency one way or the other as far as a variety of services offered by these companies but they will come with a price. Users will continue paying handsomely throughout the decade provided there are no new entrants on the market.
It is not easy to predict on what the economy will look like in the next ten years because the activities of the government are not very clear. Government has not sold its policies to the Zambians and we are therefore left to wonder. However, if we are to make predictions on what the next ten years will be like, it will purely be based on history—what has been happening previously. Based on this we can predict some slow growth if copper prices continue to rise.
Finally, the next ten years present clear and big challenges for our leaders. We can make this decade to be the turnaround decade. A decade when turned tables for the millions living in poverty. A decade when we turned tables for the struggling entrepreneur. A decade when we turned tables for many farmers. A decade when we made the right decision that changed and improved our lifestyle here in Zambia. Let us make this decade our decade.
Wesley, thumbs up. Very balanced article.
the next ten years, zambia must receive money from mining industries !
ZCCM-IH held between 10 and 20 % in all mines, but received less than 0.05 % from the total benefits.
In the same time the foreign groups use the benefit for developp their company in other country…
GRZ must receive money from mining industries, Zambia can live without help from FMI and WOrld bank, Zambia must receive money for developp the country itself !
I agree,Chinese investment has increased with its cheap and imitation products. the goverment should seriously look into that matter!
Wesley mwaice you lived in the States. Much as I agree with people building property, some important aspects have not lived up to that. No water. No electricity.
I may be wrong but the road infrastructure is a sorry site-amatipa batata. Hospitals have remained the same as well as clinics and government schools.
Lusaka city centre is very very ugly and dirty. only Cairo raod otherwise Lumumba, Freedom way and Chacha Cha roads. Eeishhhh.
What boom are you talking about? What shopping centres are there to boast of in Zambia. Lusaka has no infrastructure to boast of. The city is an eyesore and is very dirty
Well written article! We need more of such articles that can stimulate business interest and act as an eye opener to many Zambians. Lets focus more on developmental issues rather than political insults day in day out. Lets look at ways we can invest in our beloved country… and let the politicians alone…though we can still demand what rightfully belongs to us. God bless Zambia and all the Zambians!
can somebody please build a modern shopping centre for the poor people of KABWE. These poor souls are being deprived of serous civilization:o
ITs true we can turn it into our decade. Lets learn to love one another & manage our resources very well.
Is it we are black or what:”? Please God help us.
:):(:d:”>:”>:((:d/:x8-|/:):o:-?:-\”:-w;)[-(:)>-:)>-o->:-h:|:^o:@)>-)>:):-& can someone read this?
number 10 starik how many months are you old? deuces:)>-
What intrastructure are you talking about? Lusaka is an eye sore. Yes people have tried to put up some structures here and there but generally there is no plan for the City, its a mess. I don’t think there is anything to write home about. The Chinese investment is just about plundering our copper, and what is the copper doing for our Country. Wait until you start suffering the effects of the envirnmental degradation which Chinsese care nothing about. You should also think about what the cheap/ sub standard Chinese goods are doing to our industry before you open your mouth
starik now you can fill in the blanks wawumfwa?
Hey People! What is wrong with you? America, the UK and the rest of the world are embracing China. And you say they are not good for us. What do you mean? Did they not help build most the schools, hospitals, rail line, Kariba dam, etc? What did Britain leave us with? Nothing but a handful of schools, clinics and no university at all!
I would suggest instead we improve of the Buro of Standards monitoring imported quality of products regardless of where they come from including China.
jacob zuma dont you have anything better to do like getting married?=)) deuces mune:)>-
Point of order, economic forecast will always be unpredictable as long as KANITUNDILA remains in power. If you want to see clearly, this is the time to usher in THE PACT. FULL STOP:d/:d/:d/:d/<:-p
Good analysis, though most of it probably not first hand. Unlike what other pipo see in Lusaka being useless, why not see opportunities. For example, parking space for cars in down town Lusaka is a night mare, why not us with the know and the meane develop parkades, this will ease the accessibility of the town centre. As regards housing estates, there is plenty land right on the fringe of the CBD, look at where Misis and Chibolya sits, organised multistore buldings can beutify the City if those where developed.
Lusaka is not beyond redemption like some other African cities I have seen. I think of Lagos, Nairobi or even Dar es Salaam, these are huge cities but they really epitomise true chaos in all respects.
Quite good article, but a bit disjointed. I suggest the author should read Zambia’s Vision 2030. This is the overarching vision guidinding Zambia into a middle income economy by 2030.
Also i think not much has been covered on the last 10 yrs. i can only clearly see the global recession. But this was only since 2008. Wesley, you should have talked about HIPC and Debt forgiveness and their impact on Zambia.
A paragraph on the energy sector would be welcome – constrainst such as electricity generation capacity, which limit mine expansion and also old Indeni which is responsible for many petroleum woes, including high perices in Zambia. How do we solve these in next 10 yrs is critical. Agriculture has declined. Expecting huge food production? What will Govt do differently next 10yrs?
Good Evening
A very imformative piece of lecture by Wesley. Many thanks for the retrospective and preemptive analysis.
Given the fact that Zambia has all the necessary resources to make it the food basket for the whole southern region, I think this is an area where Zambians must begin to consider seriously investing in.
Wesley – please note #4’s comment. Real estate in Zambia needs planning – roads, water and sewerage, electricity, legally obained plots, well-demacated plots and just basic hygiene!
You see wesley, you like a lot of zambians are overlooking manufacturing plants. You seem to be happy with the excavating our raw matrials ,selling them raw and importing finished goods. Money keeps flowing from the ground while small time entrprenures are involved in supplying matrials from outside to the mines. This is a situation that zambia will regret when our raw matrials are depleted.
Seeing shopping malls and Zambians are happy. We shoould have pipo with deeper vision pleas.
of course it will develop but the development will be asymmetrical with huge social imbalances. We will become like one of those crazy south american countries eg colombia or brazil. developed bu f u c k e d up.
Zambians abroad. If you haven’t been to Zed in the past 5 years please shut up.
No crane has moved in Zambia for the past 15 years and you brag about development in real estate. What shopping coplexes are you talking about . Manda hill and arcades are the only ones that are there. Housing in Zambia is pathetic. Nowadays Kabwata estate looks like the elder brother to wusakile. Maybe the next 10 years will bring some development, which I doubt very much especially with the politics that goes on.Kitwe is almost a monarchy with Ali Simwinga at the helm for the past 25 years, He sees nothing wrong with having a bush at the middle of town centre.
I AGREE WITH NO. 10. MANUFACTURING IS THE WAY TO GO. TURN ROW MATERIALS INTO FINISHED GOODS. THIS SHOULD CREATE MORE JOBS AND EMPOWER MORE PEOPLE. RIGHT NOW MOST ZAMBIANS ARE INTO PETTY TRADING OR PEDDLING. EVEN PROFESSIONALS (DOCTORS, LAWYERS, TEACHERS ETC) CANNOT SURVIVE WITHOUT SELLING NAKONDE RICE OR MONGU RICE TO OFFICE MATES. WORSE STILL THEY OPEN NTEMBAS IN TOWN CALLED BOOTIQUES TO SELL CHEAP CHINESE CLOTHES EXORBITANTLY TO STRUGGLING FELLOW NATIONALS AND SAY THEY ARE DOING WELL! COME ON. CREATE GOODS. THE MARKET IS READILY AVAILABLE. LOOK AT MAHEU. ZIM, MALAWI. CONGO, TANZANIA, RWANDA EVERYWHERE. NOW THINK EVEN BIGGER. FASHION, ELECTRONICS, CARS, NAME IT.THEY COULD BE LOCALLY PRODUCED. LET INVESTORS OPEN PLANTS NOT ONLY MALLS. PROPER GOVT SHOULD SHOW LEADERSHIP TOWARDS SUCH DREAMS