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Prof Chirwa’s prediction on MMD, PF and UPND

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UPND chairman for international relations Clive Chirwa

THE MMD will win this year’s presidential and general elections if the Patriotic Front (PF) and the United Party for National Development (UPND) participate in the polls separately, UPND chairman for international relations Clive Chirwa has said.

 

Professor Chirwa puts the MMD’s popularity surge at 38.1 percent and the PF-UPND pact’s collective performance at 19.34 percent. He advised the alliance to work “extremely hard”.

He warned that figures from the last 55 by-elections show that the MMD has an edge of about 50 percent over the pact, and urged the two parties to take his analysis seriously.

And the MMD has hailed Prof Chirwa’s advice to the pact partners as a true reflection of the current political reality in the country, and a confirmation of the ruling party’s strength.

In a letter addressed to PF president Michael Sata and his UPND counterpart Hakainde Hichilema dated February 15, 2011, Prof Chirwa told the pact not to ignore his figures “as they give a very clear outcome if it does not function to the ability expected by the people of Zambia.”

He said the figures are based on the results of the three parliamentary and 52 local government by-elections conducted between August 2009 and September 2010.

Prof Chirwa outlined the calculations that helped him arrive at the two figures.

“Taking into account these weightings, MMD has clocked 38.1 percent success, while UPND has 16.54 percent and PF 2.8 percent,” he said.

Prof Chirwa said the results do not mean UPND is now the favoured party over the PF.

“However, what these figures clearly show is that if we had to go it alone as PF or UPND, MMD will be voted into power yet again as our (pact) total resurgence is 19.34 percent, which is approximately half that of MMD (38.1 percent),” he said.

Prof Chirwa also expressed worry at the voter registration list of January this year.

“We are seeing a complex picture emerging, which tells us a simple message that requires the pact to work extremely hard in order to achieve the aspiration level the Zambian people are yelling for,” he said.

He discussed many other issues related to the pact in the letter, including proposals on how positions should be shared between the two partners.

MMD national chairman Michael Mabenga commended Prof Chirwa for telling the truth over the party’s strength.

“I am happy that Clive Chirwa has supported our assertions that the MMD is powerful and will beat both the PF and UPND even if they stand as a pact,” he said.

Mr Mabenga said it is good the information is coming from the pact’s own member and not from the MMD.

“Even if they stand as a pact, we are not shaken in any way. Even without us speaking, their own member has conceded that we are a powerful party and will win the elections. This is really good,” he said.

[Zambia Daily Mail]

editor
editorhttp://www.lusakatimes.com

124 COMMENTS

  2. the man is talking sense, he sholud also try to pump some into HH. He should stop attacking Wynter like he did yesterday..that was very useless, we havve never heard the PF attacking UPND leaders.

  4. Well “Prof” Chirwa how can you base your conclusion on a sample of 3 parliamentary seats out of 150!! Surely that is only 2%. You should have at least used a bigger sample size out of the entire population. The other factors you forgot to take into account were that, the 3 parliamentary elections were from the MMD’s traditional strongholds…so obviously though well intended, your analysis is flawed! But for the pact partners if at all it’s still alive, this should be regarded as good news because the MMD will be complacent and inevitably be in a comfort zone..so my only advice to the PACT partners – WORK your A.R.S.E.S HARD

  5. “Prof Chirwa told the pact not to ignore his figures “as they give a very clear outcome if it does not function to the ability expected by the people of Zambia.””

    Prof Chirwa, you are talking to PF who does not care about figures. They have made it very clear that figures are very useless and have given the impression that if they form govt, they’ll discard figures like HDI, Inflation, real GDP, Balance of Payments just to name a few because such figures are useless to them and do not make a difference for someone in Shangombo.

    If they can disregard such important figures, what makes you think they’ll take your figures seriously. Very soon you’ll have Deja Vu, Smoothcriminal or genocidal maniac Kalos2121 ranting and accusing you of being bought. Good luck working with…

  6. YES, This is a true analysis of what is pertaining on the ground. A party which does not take into account of analysis being brought by it’s own member’s is bound to fail.

    Prof. Chirwa has hit the nail on it’s head. He is worth a material to follow his analysis.

    Congrates!!

  7. This marriage cannot work as we have relics of the old culture like Mr Sata who think that he is so popular he can win it alone. We should look to the young people for us as a country to move forward . KK was 40 when he assumed power and the country moved forward as the man had a dynamic outlook he built UNZA,UTH,Educated us using the country’s copper wealth ,the list is endless.Only mistake he made was to stay on when he had ran out of ideas. Lpok at Tanzania and Botswana these countries are moving forward with young dynamic visionary leaders.Phase out the old guard if we are to enter a new era

  8. This marriage cannot work as we have relics of the old culture like Mr Sata who think that he is so popular he can win it alone. We should look to the young people for us as a country to move forward . KK was 40 when he assumed power and the country moved forward as the man had a dynamic outlook he built UNZA,UTH,Educated us using the country’s copper wealth ,the list is endless.Only mistake he made was to stay on when he had ran out of ideas. Lpok at Tanzania and Botswana these countries are moving forward with young dynamic visionary leaders.Phase out the old guard if we are to enter a new era.

  9. Ba Capitalist, you have resurfaced. How great. You disappeared on the Mulongoti issue. Anyway, I have very few minutes to be on LT. If you have observed I have not been participating. A lot of school work on my desk. I will see you rantings after May. SOME OF US are not content with Master’s Degrees. Ha ha ha ha ha ha. Enjoy your time wasting LT venture.

  10. John Phiri…..Winter is a fool, HH was right. Sata will never be president of this country. He needs UPND. The man is old, he has been in Government since 1964. We need young vibrant politicians like you instead of supporting an old useless man who just talks no sense all the time

  11. Kabimba, Sata and the Post should note this observation. This group really think they can do it alone. This is what it means if you just bought your degree on the street, Sata cannot listen to anyone. HH has been trying to do things in a civilised manner but he is either being ignored by Sata or sends Kabimba to disorganise the whole process or sends the post to say something bad about UPND. Although iam not voting for MMD, Sata cant be the alternative.

  13. LT spelling mistake in headline, Oh please! Prof Chirwa naiwe ulimuwelewele, what kind of wapped up thinking and/ analysis is this? You are supporting your little known UPND! The fact is UPND is only popular in Southern Province, period! Lets us go it along and see who is really more popular!

  15. #10 Kwa Mutonyo
    if you say that then UPND will never be in GRZ with that constitution of yours which favours a president from one region only, we Zambians are not going to vote them. NO SATA NO PACT NO VOTE

  16. Chirwa cant base his statistic on the 2008 elections , things have changed . He should realise that the whole western Province will switch now to the opposition meaning MMD will lose a considerable amount of votes from the 350,000 registered Lozis. That is where the MMD got their votes from.

    Here is my simple analysis PF does better if UNPD splits with it. Why? PF will have Lusaka, Copperbelt Luapula and Northern votes and even Central though margins will be close with the MMD and UPND , MMD will have Eastern, UPND will have Southern and North western. ADD will win Western , followed by UPND and PF

    Given the analysis PF wins….am not pro PF but thats the analysis Prof. Chirwa look at pressent also when making your assumptions.

  17. OK, here is my problem with Professor Chirwa. First, he is an academic, not a politician. These are two different disciplines. In academics, often the idea that wins out is the idea that is the last idea standing. It is an elimination process. Politics on the other hand, is a process of aggregation. You get more and more people on your side, and slowly build a strong consensus because you deliver something to everyone in exchange for their support.

    Professor Chirwa is going about his political career by eliminating not only (potential) opponents, but also alternative ideas. This is politically very destructive.

    I don’t know why he was allowed to switch from the MMD to the UPND, but it says to me that the UPND needs to put it’s house in order. No need for another neoliberal…

  18. #9 Kalos2121, are you sure that your absence is just not frustration? Anyway, whatever the reason is, we will not miss you. See you after the elections. Please study hard and get a PhD, maybe you need that level of education as a minimum to offer reasoned debate on LT and to restrain your genocidal thoughts.

  19. #5 Mr. Capitalist – 3 E’s steering economic growth- The source of this story Zambia Daily Mail is now being manuplated by VJ to add even things that the Prof didnt say. Add 1million lies,I wont change my mind. I wont vote for MMD never. Infact MMD will only win through INTERNATIONAL TRICKS OF DRIBBLING, that is if they will win.

  22. I dont think there is any deep analysis that one needs to do if the opposition does not unite against the MMD. It is the same old story of splitting the votes, giving an advantage to the MMD. I agree with Clive Chirwa that this time around PF will drop significance number of votes in its traditional strong holds like Luapula, copperbelt urban, Lusaka urban. The pattern of voting in Northern province will not change i.e. Namwanga and mambwe areas will vote for the MMD and the bemba speaking areas will vote PF. UPND will perform better than last time.

  23. I dont agree with the analysis.Chirwa is doing that analysis in London on a laptop.Let him go to Zambia of course not at Intercontinental hotel but in the shanties.

  24. pliz dont be cheated what chirwa he is say s true only de 1 who cnt see ed u cn only see acording to de level of ur education if u ar not up ther in terms of educati];’on then see.chirwa is right pf or upnd without de pact they cn never do it period de dotnch kubeba of yoz wil nt work wthout upnd never.de problem u dont understand ed analyze what people ar saying katwisnganibukaponya

  25. Oweee!!! What kind of analysis is this? prof.it is better for you to just say MMD will win if the pact fail than reducing yourself to this level. I am sure statisticians are enjoying some good laugh at ur analysis

  26. “Taking into account these weightings, MMD has clocked 38.1 percent success, while UPND has 16.54 percent and PF 2.8 percent,” Prof. Chirwa said.

    I like the weighting of PF!! Donchi Kubeba for real!!!

  27. “Taking into account these weightings, MMD has clocked 38.1 percent success, while UPND has 16.54 percent and PF 2.8 percent,” Prof. Chirwa said.

    I like the weighting of PF!! Donchi Kubeba for real!!!..lol

  28. I agree to disagree with prof chirwa. Majority of the by_elections were from mmmd strongholds cappled with Barose unrest. Pf rebel mps issue,only Chitika and Chongo are factors(am in mansa). Chirwa knows the way forward hence his proposal. Its now up to the so called educated and orderly unpnd to be real and help to rescure the suffering masses. Look at mabenga the way he has welcomed the analysis,its LIKE YOU ARE TELLING SOME SHRINKING BROTHER(sick) THAT NOWADAYS YOU HAVE PUT ON WEIGHT! Take to observe how nice he will feel,SAME WITH MABENGA AND MMD.

  30. This is the man who wanted to be President? Well he might spend to much theorising…but we need to let him know his analysis is skewed..MMD will sweep the polls with a landslide of over 75% then RB can rule without fear or favour….HH and Sata are being sent to political rest in 2016 MMD will bring in fire brands….

  31. That’s Prof.Chirwa speaking.This is a reality and this time the margin will be too much.People have spoken time and again that forming a Pact was not the best solution because any time any of the two can change their mind and this is what we are see today.If these opposition political parties were to come togather as one even today things can change.But the problem is that they are all selfish and the end result is MMD muyayaya or they have rigged. So leave it or take it .Prof.Chirwa has given a good prediction.

  32. John Phiri. HH and ZAMBIANS analysed before Prof Chirwa came. HH is saying that let us be dictated by Zambians and accept to work as PACT,further more HH/UPND is saying he refuses change for sharing positions or getting read of MMD, BUT change which benefits Zambians through a guaranteed programm of SOCIAL,ECONOMICAL AND GOOD GOVERNANCE .Then chose a PACT President HH or SATA.

  33. Oweee!!! What kind of analysis is this? prof.it is better for you to just say MMD will win if the pact fail than reducing yourself to this level. I am sure statisticians are enjoying some good laugh at ur analysis..

  34. divergent voices like those of chirwa within his party are healthy. he shou;ld be threatened with expulsions. the same should go for other perties

  35. I would fire Kabimba, i hear he is a Lawyer, With such immisango WHAT DUMB FOOL. As to Prof Chirwa prdictn, i am not sure. I hate Sata but i believe he is better off without the Pact and can win. Prof. Chirwa Sata can never be trusted, therefore working with him is worse than working with the devil himself.As UPND we cant win this year’s elections but can challenge Sata because should he lead Zambian people will see his Ass and want him out fast then they will go back to the drawing board and see that UPND is the only hope we have. We can Support the cobra as the most dangerous but not work with it especially behind its tail. i hope Sata has not promised you something.

  36. Professor Chirwa should be PACT president. We have true presidential material. However Mabega and most pipo commenting here have missed the point, he said if the two go to the as individual parties, they will score 19%. But if they join they will Beat MMD.

  37. Clive is not a politian. Rb committee genocide in BRE same province that put him in power. This time bre goes to MILUPI

  39. Clive is not a politian. Rb committee genocide in BRE same province that put him in power. This time bre goes to MILUPI. Only mmd fuuls take such analysis

  41. Number 39, try to read his profile. You probably dont know much about him. You can not head a big institute if you dont know governance. What we need is a good leader, politician or no polician. We have had politicians like RB or FTJ for presidents, what did we get in return? Lets give the man a chance.

  42. Again, we see this meeknes in UPND. While HH is blaming Wynter Kabimba for being mischievous for Pact failure, we have his Foreign Affairs spokesperson asking for the Pact to work even harder based on his Sampling Data.

    Basically, plunging this into another circus. Yet still, we have others now trying to resurrect UPND and believe that it can win alone at the ballot box.

    There are bunches of intelligent chaps in UPND. Is this some short of direction, UPND is still split or the leader is not playing a Captain Role?

  43. While unit between PF and UPND is critical the sample of Pro. Chirwa is inconclusive and extremely misleading. It ignores many factors that are factual on the ground.

    I guess its good to let MMD relax their guard

  44. Clive is not a Politician. He is just a Drifter. He tried forming his party from the UK and failed. Then he attempted MMD and thought he would land a top position and that failed too. I can see Clive creating a lot of confusion in UPND. He is better positioned to an advisor on Technology subjects.

  47. My advice to MMD is to “step up the campaign “without slowing down and not listen to this Nonsense coming from Chiluba talking about International tricks. MMD should ensure they win with a big margin. Sata is in it to create havoc this time if he sees that the call will be close. He will use it to justify the Tunisia, Libya & Egypt hurricane.

    MMD are very well positioned to gain in Luapula & Northern Province. Sata is collapsing big time in that part the country.

    As for UPND, go and “regroup” so that you can be the main opposition party after 2011. That way Parliament can start having good sounding debates.

  48. Respect to the prof for going far in his Education but clearly his research is a bit skewed, and whilest is an indicator of the way things are/were on the ground . he needed to factor in things like which party is growing faster than the rest. Am sure its nither MMD nor PF ….. raise your hand up and point to the future….

  49. Prof chirwa, we welcome your statistics but mmd will use this for their gain during rigging. Trust me, the pact has conceded defeat by pact leadership declaring the loss.

  50. This professor is just entertaining the thieves of MMD(Mabengas) because it’s wrong to use by-election results as the basis of MMD’s popularity as they go door to door distributing money and other corrupt practices,now in a general election that is not possible. PF is the most popular party and that’s why Pupiah,Daily mail,znbc,times always attack Sata,period

  51. Am sure the MMD is excited about this research, they need to carry out there own. Whlest this research is somewhat indicative i can assure you that the race is far from over.

  54. Indeed Mr Chirwa’ analysis is good,unfortunately i pity Mr Mabenga’s simple and trivial understanding of the issue at hand.

  55. Sad to see the turn of events in the PACT, it was a terrible marriage, one partner wanted to be playing around and be worshiped. its a pity. what can we say, let the people pact with the better Pact member and change Zambia forever. UPND

  56. #47 you are a big CHEAT. MMD in Luapula and Northern! What a joke. get down to the villages and listen from the impoverised communities in the two provinces. I bet MMD and RB will get below 25% of the vote in the two provinces. Its time up for MMD. The cleansing in MMD is self defeating. Malanji for Mutati, Sampa for Muteteka, Kunda for Kavindele/Mulongoti, ………………for Shikapwasha etc. HH and SATA swallow your pride and you are at Plot already. The PACT is the easy way or SATA wins with simple majority.

  57. in my thinking i think pro chirwa is write.our pact friends or parties i av never seen them go for campaign together as a pact.please let them tell us if we still av hope in them so that if not we know that the MMD has already won the elections,i say so coz without the pact dear friends MMD is wining the election we want or not,that is the fact.BRAVO again BRAVO prof chirwa.:):):((please listen to prof chirwa for the betterment of the pact.prof is a president material to me.:)>-

  58. Shimumba,
    SHimumba#56 Go to the ECZ website and you will find that you are always being stamped by MMD in Parts of Northern and Luapula … ni ulule … Mpulungu, mbala, Chiengi and of course the rebel mp’s are now pro MMD …..dont forget that my man… the PF is dwindling at 2.8 %

  60. There is nothing new here Sata is a stubborn old man & I hope when he loses this time around he should give up his ambitions of ever becoming president of Zambia. He will have lost 4 times. As for HH, he still has a lot to prove & fade off the tribal connotation that his party carries…UPND should know that they can’t win a presidential election with support just coming from Tonga land.

  64. Bobby you definately mean well but the PACT is a lost cause. you can forgive a cheating partner but if they keep doing it and without remorse thenyou are allowed to leave them.

    The PACT is dead unless the PF come with a different attititude. You cant be crying for them to come to bed for 9 months and they dont show and still think you have something going. So Bobby, if you are as sincere as you sound. Join a sane party and start campainging in your sphere of influnce.. VIVA UPND

  65. Sad but very true. Even though i wanted MMD out these just no better 2nd option for me right now. I would rather have no step forward, than 5 steps backwards. Katwishi mwe??????

  66. There is something very wrong in Prof Chirwa’s brain – more like “mad scientist”.

    Last week he was proposing that MC Sata be the PACT Presidential candidate for 2011 and a week later he says PF has only 2.8% success rate to win elections.

    What type of warped thinking is this or is he just hallucinating?

  67. A long time ago the post used to be a good paper , nowadays its only good for the Pit latrine, its a good alterantive to Softtex elo nafuti it fits well muma pantry to put your plates on. These chaps should be rejected with the highest level of abourment( hate for sin)

  70. 42, 44, 47 Independent Observer
    Spot on. always appreaciate your comments and your enthusiams towards taking Zambia forward.
    Pa Zed, we need good young thinking dudes from the new generation. you are good example to Zambia. I know you lean towards MMD and sometimes with UPDN. Have you ever thought about going into politics or form a Political Party. With all that millions of Pounds in your pocket, you can do it. We need politician that can lead & inspire the nation.

  71. Sorry to say this, but i am not buying Prof Chirwa’s research believe me.. We all know the truth that Sata is well known to the people of Zambia so why should we even waist time talking about who is known.. One thing we should all understand is that Leadership is a gift from God and not everyone as it, if you asked me who as the gift between Sata and HH you will find that Sata as the gift.. yes HH may be very educated but when we come to wisdom Sata wins it. Zambia needs a person who is very serious with life and who is very authoritative, a person who as a heart for others and not for him self.I strongly believe Sata as all it take’s to be the Leader of this Nation. lets be straight with what we say and do.. lets not make people we even know that can’t do anything, run our life..thank…

  72. He is saying ‘wake up and work hard’. If he got a bigger sample you would be questioning where and when he got the info, its old data, bla bla bla.

  73. Clive does not zed politics. Breaking pack was best STRATAGY. This time western province goes to MILUPI because RB committee genocide In BRE. RB will come last. Mark my word.

  74. I am surprised that out of the 70 -odd comments above, not a single blogger has analysed Professor Chirwa’s computations. I agree with the WIN FACTOR for MMD of 38.2% based on the 21 seats they contested against the 55 which were up for grabs. Basic Math, with no Calculus involved, gives MMD’S performance or success rate as 38.2% (i.e. 21/55 x 100 = 38.18%). Where is he getting the 16.54% success rate for UPND when they won 26 out of 55? 26/55 x 100 = 47.27%!!!!! For PF 7/55 X 100 = 12.72 % WAKE UP!!!!

  75. have done statistics before and this is pure assertion that computed data. what parameter was he factoring in and did he consider the magins in outcomes or based on number of wins? was it even distribution or others attempted more seats….chirwa dont bring dreams to zambia

  80. All the Jackals and heynas in this country know that one MIcheal Chilufya Sata will never be president of any country.
    1. Kaunda worked with him but advised Zambian never to vote for him.
    2. Chiluba worked with him and chose a man who was asleep and had challenged him for the MMD presidency in 1995 instead of Sata who was clearly considered his right hand man.
    3. God selects our leaders and He has so far given us LPM and RB even when these two had literally retired and were not thinking of leading this country. For Sata it was his ambition and was always in the political arena.
    4. We know who was at the helm of the dreaded vigilantes in UNIP.
    5. We remember who took Pangas to Chawama and maimed our mothers, fathers and children.
    6. We remember who was at the helm of the third term.

  81. # 53 2.8 % ……..WHAT ABOUT 2.8% OR IS IT ALL YOU’RE CAPABLE OF USING OUT OF YOUR FULL MENTAL POTENTIAL??……..HA, HA, HA, HA, HA, HA, AH, HA, HA, HA…….

  82. FLAWED CONCLUSIONS from Prof CHIRWA!!!

    It amazes me how most of you have been hoodwinked by the said statistics. Was Chirwa`s sample trully representative of the opinions of the general Zambia`s population? NO! Were the bye-elections evenly distributed across Zambia?NO! The sample Chirwa used is clearly biased, as a larger part of it might have been drawn from the MMD stronghold.Hence, in stattistics, when one is interpreting trends, one has to consider whether the observed pattern is due to: a) chance; b) artefacts(how the data is collected,recorded and presented,etc; c) real change. For these simple reasons, i find prof Chirwa’s interpretaion very misleading.

  83. If the prossessor can give such a short and almost baseless calculation then i would rather not become one and remain the engineer that i am. Pro, u need to protect your pact and not give MMD justification for rigging! What are you up to?????????????

  84. HH is the one frustrating the pact byb refusing prof. chirwa’s proposals. The Social and Economical programe HH is talking about can be discussed after resolving the issue of Presidency of the pact. HH is young and can rule the country for two terms after 2016. This is the chance that HH is not seeing. Also SATA knows RB better unlike HH. Remember RB is damn scared of SATA and not HH.

  85. Spot on number 79 , the only person that gives headache to RB and MMD is SATA and not HH
    So if we need change let us vote pabwato for 2011

  87. I have to say i expected a bit better from a “professor. His analysis is highly flawed and based on assumptions which are very suspect. Not only is his sampling wrong, his analysis is based purely on historical data and assumes a stagnation in the popularity of the UPND and the Pact. Why do i waste my time…

  88. Out of all the comments above, Proffessor Banda(74) makes the most sense. UPND is top going by analysis of the recent bye elections. It would be better to publish the full letter by the prof. for us to give it a fair analysis.
    Otherwise from what I have read soo far, I am beginning to wonder what Professor Chirwa’s true motive is. I doubt if his soul and mind is into UPND or is he trying to use the party as a platform to be the pact president? How can an intelligent man like Chirwa fail to understand that, given the presidency Sata will be worse than RB…actually he would be a breed between Mugabe and Gadaffi. The man is mis-applying his aerodynamic theories to the subject(politics). Prof., human beings are different from machines and a leopard like Sata can’t change it’s spots

  89. #54, obviously this analysis is not for the likes of Mabenga, bena basendapofye icushi!! Anyway, all these happenings could be a blessing is disguise. We all know that PF, from long ago since the pact was formed, has been thinking of going it alone, why?? because they are selfish, and this does not apply to the presidency issue only! Remember Guy Scott’s article? If the pact succeeds, HH will be the Veep and Scott just nother Minister, again!! And Kabimba and others, there will just be too few portfolios to go round…..selfishness and greed.Might as well stick to the current devil we know

  90. The truth is that whether PF and UPND get together there is no guarantee that many will vote for the pact especially in HH’s stronghold because many are conservatives who attach meaning to politics and have strong values. Many connect Sata to the Chiluba regime because he was the archtect of all the atrocities in the Chiluba regime. For conservatives you cannot promise them money in their pockets within 90 days, they will question you where you intend to get the money without working for it first. UPND has aproximately 16% becuase many of their supporters feel belonging to Sata is so detrimental to the party they feel is so clean. PF is at 2.8% in terms of popularity meaning it has reduced so much because many now know who Sata is and the type of MPS he has such as Wynter and GBM.

  92. So it is true for UPND to say their party is the second largest opposition political party.
    MMD 38.1%
    UPND 16.54
    Pf 2.8 because they never grabbed any seat from the ruling party.
    In terms of members of parliament for the opposition,
    UPND has 27 with 3 grabed from MMD
    PF has 25 without the 22 rebel mps,
    Therefore, in terms of popularity UPND has gained remedous popularity of 16.54 % and is now the second opposition political party in zambia. Viva upnd, In 2008 you got 19% of total votes and you have gained 16.54% more which adds up to 35.54% for you. This shows you are winning come the next election. If pf are still using the 2008 picture wake up things have changed.

  93. I always say never attempt to be an expert in a field u are not well vested with. Honestly this analysis is bogus and largely premised on the professor’s feelings. Therefore, the tools of analysis used are hugely defective which ultimately makes his entire argument fallacious.

  94. In 2008 pf got 30% of the votes and has now gained just 2.8% which adds up to 32.8% trailing behind UPND. So UPND is the second largest opposition political party in zambia with 35.54% VIVA PAKWANJA.

  95. SATA has no team..HH has a team. Levy messed up MMD by importing a UNIPIST…Well pipo we are in a mess because from the look of things MMD is winning not because of RB but because ZAMBIANS can not trust HH enough, for whatever reasons. Come elections 2011 in six months time, MMD will once again have a field day.
    Reality Check INDEED

  96. Just because this guy calls himself professor, does not mean he understands the dynamics of what is going on on the ground. Polls in Zambia mean nothing. There is no true way to get an accurate scientifically valid poll. This is pure speculation and hype.

  98. On “He [Dr Clive Chirwa] said the figures are based on the results of the three parliamentary and 52 local government by-elections conducted between August 2009 and September 2010… “Taking into account these weightings, MMD has clocked 38.1 percent success, while UPND has 16.54 percent and PF 2.8 percent,”” this is the data that PF need to understand in no uncertain terms.

    I hope Zambians will not be disappointed when PF will be pushed in a distant third position after the 2011 elections hopefully.

    Be blest all and happy Sabbath.
    _
    Matt 6:33

    I wish the UPND good luck in their participation in the 2011 campaigns.

    Make sure that PF is pushed to the distant third position so that it can become extinct in the near future.

    Be blest all and happy Sabbath.
    _
    Matt…

  99. Mmd has been winning elections due to poverty especially in rural areas where our lovely people are bribed day in day out.How come MMD has not performed well in Lusaka and Coperbelt…To me MMD is not popular.They are using TAX layers money to be stay in Govt .Zambians open your eyes.There is high level of corruption how come Sable can do major roads in Eastern province reason is simple chekelako we need Sata to arrest corruption therefore Zambians vote 4 Ba Sata

  100. One thing am certain of is that a tribal club will never be in government, never! they will forever be in opposition just like their grandfathers’ regional parties.

  101. This data presentation and analysis is simply unintelligent and unwise not befitting coming from a Prof. Zambians beware, he’ll destroy UPND & by the time you realise, he will be RB’s Minister. I suspect he’s working with MMD, how can UPND be allowing a new member issuing divisive comments? HH take control of your members, you’re being undermined, unfit to be President

  102. UPND is a democratic party where everyone feel the sense of ownership. That was prof. Chirwa’s democratic right bane. UPND is not like pf where policies and manifestos are in one person’s head and thats MC Sata.

  103. I didnt want to comment on Prof chirwa’s article for fear that PF zealots like one john phiri may harrass me on this blog, I want to challenge prof chirwa and proove that the prof errored
    Here are my reasons , There is a general perception that statistical knowledge is all-too-frequently intentionally misused by finding ways to interpret only the data that are favorable to the presenter Such manipulations need not be malicious or devious but alas prof chirwa deliberately decided to mislead zambians and himself to favor information that confirms his preconceptions or hypotheses regardless of whether the information is true. His results are biased in particular for emotional significannce to affirm his existing attitudes and believe .
    Here are the statistical errors Prof Chirwa…

  104. His results are biased in particular for emotional significannce to affirm his existing attitudes and believe .
    Here are the statistical errors Prof Chirwa made

    1.Bias Due to Unrepresentative Samples
    The survey sample prof chirwa used does not accurately represent the population of the whole country, as some bi elections were held in party strong holds. for example, you can not say PF performance has declined just because UPND WON 11 OUT 11 BI ELECTIONS HELD IN CHOMA SOUTHERN PROVINCE NO NO!! the number of degrees of freedom for the analysis is small, which results in outcome bias when every jelita and mulenga knows the outcome of that decision thus a selection bias.

    2. Undercoverage.
    The prof deleberately didnt want us to know that his results depict an Undercoverage some…

  105. The prof deleberately didnt want us to know that his results depict an Undercoverage some members of the population are inadequately represented in the sample. The questions to be asked are which region were bi elections held? Party popularity? Level of education of voters i.e urban or non urban these are important variables that help us arive at a non influenced outcome but alas for ba prof your results are based from a convenience sample to favour your opinion.

  106. 3. Nonresponse bias.
    Ba prof from your results you didnt address the issue of voters who may not have had interest to vote for their prefered candidates at that time, and each votting period have different candidates who may appeal to the undecided voters, these undecided voters alawys change the picture of the election result out outcome it happened in USA to obama AND Roosevelt , remember some people are unwilling or unable to participate in a bi election this is different from the tripatite election wheN the mood and expectations are high .Your assumptions remind me of a research i did on abortion as I based my results from radio talk call shows, my results were as pathetic as yours due to Voluntary response bias. Voluntary response bias occurs when sample members are self-selected…

  107. As per example from from the call-in radio shows that solicit audience participation in surveys on controversial topics (abortion, affirmative action, gun control, etc.). The resulting sample tends to overrepresent individuals who have strong opinions.
    4. calculation error
    You dont even need A levels to see that the prof errored in calculation

  108. 55 positions both local government and parliament were up for grabs.
    Party performance or success rate
    MMD = 21/55 x 100 = 38.18%
    PF = 7/55 X 100 = 12.72 %
    UPND= 26/55 x 100 = 47.27%!!!!! IF U sum up my percenatgies they add UP to 100% Prof chirwa’s 16+38+2= 56
    if anything statstical indicators shown above proove that the party that has improved and performed better and may surprize many in 2011 election is UPND.
    In conclusion prof Chirwa made Statistical,Systematic, Observer-expectancy and Publication bias in his report.
    Yours
    OCTOPUS P BWALYA PHD student- UPND ADVISOR ON PHARMACEUTICAL SCIENCES & DRUG RESEARCH

  110. From the word go, i had misgiving in this professor called Chirwa regarding his allegiance to the opposition parties cause.

    The way he handled the letter he wrote to the PF was suspicious as he created the impression to the PF that UPND had already discussed the letter before sending to the PF leadership. HE ONLY CREATED CONFUSION AND HAS NEVER COME OUT TO DEFEND THE Kabimba.
    He is now talking to the media.

    If investigated properly, this man is been used by VJ Mwanga and Chiluba’s International old tricks of disorganising the opposition parties.

    Professor Chirwa can not rise up against his tribal mate President Banda, its impossible, he is like Mr. Capitalist – 3 E’s steering economic growth, they are eating ZAMTROP’s slush funds. They are in the SHUSHU business.

    God help…

  111. This statistical analysis is flawed.There are many factors to consider.In which areas were these bye elections.Also i thought PF had won more parliamentary seats in bye elections than MMD.

  112. Chirwa’s statistics are not correct . he forgot that both UPND and PF did not participate in all the bye elections as there were giving each other chance but unfortunate PF porfomed poorly . Prof go bact to your drwing board

  113. People the problem here is the mistrust between SATA and HH.. Statistics or no statistics it will only take a combined opposition vote to defeat MMD. This PACT has lost a golden opportunity because of greed by SATA/HH..This time around, they should have been talking about getting ADD-MILUPI on board. That should have nailed MMD.
    Now i know politicians like hallucinating. The fact is that if they go it alone, facts on the ground are that RB will win with better results than last time and they should not even talk about rigging.
    MARK MY WORDS!!

  115. This is very true. PF & UNDP if you are being selffish, MMD is winning the elections. Please try to workout something for the benefit of the people of ZD

  117. WHY DID MMD SELL ZAMTEL TO GADDAFF’S LAP GREEN NETWORK?
    Pact must expose MMD failed and misguided policies: ­Libyan state-owned firm LAP Green Network owns Zamtel..now Zambian zamtel workers are at risk due to Gaddaff crisis. Is this investment MMD talks about? This was bad deal for Zambia; and another reason Zambian can not give MMD another five years-more of the same fail…ed policies! Should MMD cancel Gaddafi sponsored LapGreen deal on Zamtel?

  118. #103 Octopus paul Bwalya, just spare us your luck of knowledge and ignorance. You cannot be a good politician becuase you do not even know zambia geographically. UPND grabed the Mufumbwe, Solwezi, Chilanga and other local government Bye-elections in North-western and Central, therefore I wonder if to you all these areas are in Southern province. Continue burrying your head in the sand when others are moving. You cannot change the fact that UPND is prograssing as many people in zambia have realised that Sata should always remain in the opposition where he is more effective.

  119. At this late hour, all that UPND can do is re-moblise itself for parliamentary elections and forget the presidency in 2011, you have wasted too much time with the biblical snake. If you make an attempt at the Presidency, you will be spreading your resources too thinly, so ignore HH’s ambitions and soldeir on with parliament. With people’s growing negative perceptions of PF, UPND can come out second in parliament and help shape the destiny of this nation. Where does that leave PF? Well any position from 3rd to 50, they are quite unpredictable but what is certain is that they can never be 1st or 2nd, people simply don’t take them seriously anymore too much comedy.

  120. @@@@@@@@@@@ 117 chiluba and sata..

    you just expressed your ignorance and luck of understanding READ THE WHOLE BLOG FOR U TO GRASP MY OPINION , the example i gave was fugarative expression to show that prof chirwa’s analysis of his results was manipulative and fraud as it had a statistical Bias Due to Unrepresentative Samples i used choma as an example that a 100% score in STRONG HOLD OF THE PARTY DOES NOT PROVE THAT THE PARTY IS 100% SUPORTED IN THE WHOLE COUNTRY. N WAY WHY AM I WASTING MY TIME EXPLAINING ALL THIS STATISTICS MAY NOT BE GOOD FERTILIZER FOR YOUR BRIAN YOU MAY NOT GET THE CONCEPT, IN FACT IAM IN FAVOUR OF YOUR THOUGHTS

    OCTOPUS P BWALYA PHD student- UPND ADVISOR ON PHARMACEUTICAL SCIENCES & DRUG RESEARCH

  122. #82: Chi-square,

    I share your observations. I have problems commenting on Chirwa’s analysis unless I know where these by-elections were held. If the by-elections he used were evenly distributed in all the constituencies of Zambia, and not in the strongholds of some the parties involved, there would be sufficient basis for the validity of Chirwa’s conclusions and the reliability of the weighting factors he has computed. If the by-elections were not evenly distributed across the country, the results of his analysis cannot be said to be representative of the whole country and are therefore statistically invalid.

  123. Don’t say the MMD has hailed this Prof Chirwa’s statement as a true reflection.U want to buy the idea that people will accept your rigging of elections this year.People will have none of that.MMD kuya bebele uno muku!!Let other people with good ideas to run the country do that.Its not a personal to order job awe bane!!!

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