With thirteen days remaining before the 20th September tripartite elections, the latest opinion poll by the Center for Policy Dialogue (CPD) has tipped Republican President Rupiah Banda to win the presidency if elections were held today.
Speaking to Journalists in Lusaka today, CPD Executive Director Neo Simutanyi said according to a survey carried out on 1,500 registered voters across the country, 41 percent would vote for President Banda, 38 percent would vote for PF leader Michael Sata, while 13 percent preferred UPND leader Hakainde Hichilema.
Dr Simutanyi says only 2 percent of the respondents would vote for other political parties with 6 percent of the voters still undecided.
He says the survey was conducted using a random method of selection and had a marginal error of plus/minus 2 percent.
And Doctor Simutanyi says the objective of the opinion poll was to ascertain issues of concern on the political platform, to ascertain government’s performance and to assist the public to make informed decisions among others ahead of the general elections.
He has observed that provincial vote distribution shows that the ruling MMD has consolidated its strongholds while the opposition PF and UPND have lost ground in their strongholds.
[pullquote]This is a second opinion poll that CPD has conducted this year following an earlier one in May which favored PF leader Michael Sata.[/pullquote]
Doctor Simutanyi has also indicated that the breakup of the PF/UPND pact has a great impact on people’s decisions.
This is a second opinion poll that CPD has conducted this year following an earlier one in May which favored PF leader Michael Sata.
QFM
We’ll hear what ma PF maniacs will say about CPD now. Last time they were full of praises when it was in their favour.
Its going to be close this year. Just don’t resort to violence if your party loses…
people shoud acept these opponion polls, and politcains like oppositions must know that the wind of politcis is not like 2006 and 2008 RB is wining this year’s elections
Yes
On May 5 2011 “Dr” Simutanyi said “Patriotic Front president Michael Sata is the most preferred candidate ahead of this year’s polls according to the opinion poll conducted by the Center for Policy Dialogue.
CPD executive director Neo Simutanyi announced in Lusaka this morning that if elections were held today, PF president Michael Sata would get overall 31 percent of the votes, closely followed by MMD’s Rupiah Banda with 28 percent, with Hakainde Hichilema getting 12 percent.” What has happened in 3 months to make people change their minds? Fake poll by fake PhD holder. Pabwato!
it is not fake but dont kubeba is at work.simutanyi,knows how to make money.the real opinion poll is on 20th sep.viva ba Sata and PF
opinion polls do not vote!
Caution, these are OPINION polls, not elections – anything can happen in between! Lol! The supposed ‘winner’ should consolidate their gains as well as etch away at their opponents’ apparent strengths. The ‘losers’ should not be dismissive but take this as a wake up call and mobilise their base to go flat out so that they hold on to what they have and win over those that are on the fences.
Internet based online survey speaks otherwise. What is what now?
opinionpower.com/Surveys/618060681.html
Like you said its internet based, clearly that doesn’t take into consideration the rural vote.
heheh..pf will not win these polls..period..!we want serious leaders..
chikala chawiso
We are just being prepared to accept the election results, which will be rigged. Ask Chitala or Chongwe if you want to know how elections are rigged. With only Western Province and part of Central Province remaining a deficit of 80,000 votes is wiped out and 35,000 votes added on top.
And these are the results of online survey.
So, which one is more reliable, conducted by a person subject to manipulations and the one online with no human interference once survey is put online?
Presidential elections 2011Chisha
Vote for 20th September, 2011 Presidential elections
Hakainde Hichilema  #  % 61 13%Michael Sata 342 73%Rupiah Banda 54 11%Other 10 2% 467
IWE CHI DR NEO SIMUNTAYI YOU ARE A MAD DOG, MY DOGS CAN REASON BETTER THAN YOU SILLY CHAP
Dont shoot the messenger
lets just wait for sept 20th..no need to get excited!!!
I wonder what the agenda of this CPD is. I hope they are not being used by MMD to straighten the path for rigging. Its P.F all the way. Opinion poll or not, P.F is winning this one. Viva Pabwatooooooooooooooo….
And the results of parliamentary opinion poll conducted on the following site-
opinionpower.com/Surveys/692060684.html
Yes, we will wait for the 20th when RB will officially be chosen to lead this country AGAIN for the next five years, by then some opposition President and Party will be non existent.
Just accept: the next govt is MMD
Marginal error = +/-2%. Banda 39 – 43%. Sata 36 – 41%. How does this dander head conclude that survey shows Banda will win in the absence of any statistical significance?
I don’t think we need opinion polls to tell us that MMD is wining, every objective person knows that Satan will not win. PF lost on the day the Pact collapsed.Â
thank U Lusaka times for blocking me for giving latest online survey results. That shows your impartiality or otherwise and also reliability of New’s survey. Online surveys do not tell lies but humans can.
Online surveys are biased towards people who use the internet. To be truly objective you need to go out and actually physically distribute the survey to people.
Presidential elections 2011Chisha
Vote for 20th September, 2011 Presidential elections
Hakainde Hichilema  #  % 61 12%Michael Sata 344 73%Rupiah Banda 56 11%Other 10 2% 471
Thank you for taking the time to give us your opinion. Click the browser back button twice to return to the page you were previously on. Â Â
At least Neo Simutanyi is helping Zambians to tell this pf kaponya chilufya sata that be ready for a loss, prepare your mind and above all tell your pf cadres that tapali ichesu
opinionpower.com/Surveys/618060681.html
This is super story, we are waiting for 20th september.
Both local and international opinion poll are saying that RB is winning, you have to be an ***** to think that Zambians would let Satana rule the countryÂ
some of these opinion polls need scrutiny by real experts. The sample of 0.0003% of total regi voters is to small to draw a conclusion and leads to high error of the results. on average 167 people per province surveyed cannot be a real representation of the registered voters. any way lets wait and see.Â
13days to go!! Wina aza cooka mu State house whether mukambe bwanjiiiiiiiiii!!! Viva pa Bwaatooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!!! Sata aza loba mu State house!! Aaah! wina azafunta ka!! pa Bwatooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!!
Chi KA LA thats in your dreams and i wonder which method you are using with your opinion polls this time ni pa BWATO chabe
No. 1 Smurf (you should be silly Smurf!) As you call us ‘PF maniacs’ I will leave it up to you MMD plonkers to add another 4% (of the 6% undecided) to PF and RB and MMD dingo’s to share one percentage point each with their new spoiler UPND’s HH!
This puts firmly catapults PF surging ahead with 43% and nipping Nyama Soya with 42% and his cousin (Thandie’s so-called vote swingers) Southern Province with only 14% of the vote with 80% from Southern Province only! Wake up iwe Smurf!
Oops am not part of that 1pin 5 pipo but wth me its shiiiiii to the public and on voting date its 20HH Viva HHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
True opinion polls dont vote!Also most bloggers wont vote!true internet opinion poll is skewed!1 500 respondents isnt large enough.How random is random?It should surely cover the length and breadth of Zambia.The six percent who are undecided will remain difficult to place for obvious reasons of political fragmentation.Theres some basis but parties must go out and campaighn as we enter the last stretch.Its a sea-saw battle.GOD BLESS ZAMBIA. is skewed!1 500 respondents isnt large enough.How random is random?It should surely cover the length and breadth of Zambia.The six percent who are undecided will remain difficult to place for obvious reasons of political fragmentation.Theres some basis but parties must go out and campaighn as we enter the last stretch.Its a sea-saw battle.GOD BLESS ZAMBI
A real statistics analyst. Wgat you have said is really true. Another thing this Crap Dr forgot to take into consideration is the simple principle of PCA……am not a frequentist but i like bayesian very much. This Dr should have looked at the prior results that he published three months ago and simple bayesian stats would hev made a good projection of the posterior
As patriotic Zambians we have tenaciously worked hard for the good of the country we love and appreciate being developed with enduring peace. The victory of RB and his national people’s ruling party MMD in this year’s tripartite elections is a victory for all progressive Zambians.
Cheers!
God! Pathetic failures (pf) are already foaming at the mouths because of this ka opinion poll. What will they be like when the real results confirm the opinion poll? I just hope Kalos2121 is not sharpening his machetes in order to vent his anger when Satan loses. Please, if you are a non-Bemba Zambian, stay away from Kalos2121 after the 20th of September or you lose risking your life.
Ketiwe @ #5.
Please be informed that former British Prime Minister Harold Wilson once said ” a week is a long time in politics”. Mr Sata has of late been messing himself up with his inconsistences, funeral dramas, support for gay people and to crown it all with an empty, hollow and meaningless slogan of “Don’t Ukubeba”. The death of the pact was the last nail in the PF coffin. Definetly only the naive and die hard blind followers can still support Mr Sata.
Opinion polls are meant to give at least a faint idea of what is on the ground. But off course those found on the wrong side of the poll won’t take kindly to the Idea of being told the truth about such indicators. How can PF for instance accept opinion polls which do not favour them when they can refuse to accept that there is development which everyone is seing. Unfortunately a negative mind is cultured in such a way that it knows no thank you…
For once I agree with Neo Simutanyi’s findings – Only very frustrated people can vote the snake into state house. RB, you were ordained by God and you will get your full term and leave a legacy for all Zambians. King Cobra, I hope your followers will learn something from your flippant ways that have made it impossible for you to ascend to the Presidency. Never mind, you are already too old to start thinking of such positions. You enjoyed hacking people with Chiluba in Chawama and now they have rejected you!!! hahahahaha!!
Last time Senior Citizen disputed these poll after came out in favour of PF . What does he say now.
fake polls.
PF is winning this one….
These are fake polls where, where they conducted. Was it at RB village. fake fake fake fake
MASIPA NI MUNUNGA NI LITOCHI LA MAO. 2011 KI MWAMUKOLO SHA stupid polls.
your mother as well my friend. typical PF language.It Doesnt hurt sometimes to salvage wat tiny intelligence that may be hiding behind the pile of s.h.i…t u refer to as a brain, dichead.
Don’t disguise as a lozi,it is a taboo to use such insults in loziland.just debate and make your point to be heard.
#37 I take it you must have been in favour of the polls last time, so what do you say now? Dont you people understand that polls can change? Just because the polls might have favoured PF some months back, does not mean that they will be the same a couple of months later. No wonder people are always doubting the intelligence of those who believe in ‘donchi kubeba’ and the 90 days abracadabra more money in your pocket, more jobs, more houses, new constitution, restoration of Barotseland agreement nonsense.
this year is ours nipaBWATO chabe RB back to the animal farm
# 37,
Your PF has increasingly become a disoriented circus party without political capital to expend on the stamp. They have been systematically immobilized and left without campaign sound bites but diatribes and threats on Zambians in hope of coercing voters.Do you really expect Zambians to curve to those ritual practices of chopping lives with machetes at rallies PF has resorted to? Tell these threads 10 issues PF is basing its campaign on to deserve Zambian votes. Take it or leave it, Sata is in a political cul-de-sac and RB is on a consolidating overdrive for a new mandate. All said and done, RB will then officiate a systemic Generation change political trajectory for 2016. A strongly built Zambia will be left in responsibile and pragmatic young ones and not kaponyas constituting PF.
People, opinion polls change within days. So if the MMD wants they can organise an opinion poll that will give them 59% PF 26% UPND 15%. This will NOT change the truth that MMD is going this year!
42 and 44 senior citizen questioned the stastical software applied by Neo
What rubbish…MMD kuya bebele this year bane…donchi kujokina.
#46 I think you are in the cul-de-sac that Senior Citizen is talking about. Â Did you or did you not agree with the findings of the opinion poll that favoured purile filth (pf)? If you did, then you cant then dispute the current one. Why the focus on Senior Citizen and not on yourself? Perhaps if you stopped wearing adult diapers you might be able to argue cogently and intelligently.
chwee chweee
So far we have the Economic Intelligence Unit, Synovate, Stanbic bank and now this poll predicting a win for RB.  So up till now it is RB a president for all Zambians who has achieved so much in three years 4, and  Satan the mad tribalist, with a dodgy ticker who cant articulate any policies besides donchi kubeba and 90 days abracadabra, a big fat zero. I guess the ones who do not see the development currently taking place in Zambia, will not be able to see the trend of the opinion polls. RB4, Satana 0
This is really laughable surely how can you carry out a survey on 1,500 registered voters for Presidential elections….this is laziness, why not 15,000 or 150,000….don’t tell me somebody funds these chaps, give me a car, pay my fuel and food (will sleep in vehicle to reduce accommodation fees); I will carry out a survey on 5,000 or even 10K for the whole country.Â
A random sample only needs 31 people to be be more or less accurate. 1500 is actually a very good sample.
Neo it is donchi kubeba chabe, give them what they want
I see many commentators resident abroad are intent on shooting the messenger.
opinion polls do not work in the zambian setup but countries like USA and UK,you can even start celebrating.Otherwise VIVA SATA VIVA PF PABWATOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!
MWAMUKOLOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!
MMD cadres see results of latest opinion on ZAMPOLL base on a sample size of 5113 RB 17%, HH 24% and MCS 52%. I agree with someone who says MMD is trying to prepare the minds of the people for a rigged election results. My fear is that if MMD wins Zambia will not only be bankrupt but there shall be only one party in Zambia and all other political parties will be erased.Mark my word. HH is fooling himself if he thinks he has a chance in 2016 should MMD win. By 2016 all Zambians will be forced to dress in MMD regalia. The only person(SATA) who is capable of fighting craft and viscious RB/MMD will no longer be in the equation. The time for zambia to get rid of MMD is now or never. Zambians will remember my words should MMD win these elections. We must brace for worse times than before 1991.
3 weeks from now, we are ending Satan’s political career. Once a loser always a loser. Losing for the 4th time.Â
Lets wait for the actual polls. These are fake opinion polls.
CURRENT – a survey carried out on 1,500 registered voters across the country, 41 percent would vote for President Banda, 38 percent would vote for PF leader Michael Sata, while 13 percent preferred UPND leader Hakainde Hichilema.
PREVIOUS – CPD executive director Neo Simutanyi announced in Lusaka this morning that if elections were held today, PF president Michael Sata would get overall 31 percent of the votes, closely followed by MMD’s Rupiah Banda with 28 percent, with Hakainde Hichilema getting 12 percent.
Check the totals for both polls (92%) Vs (71%) – have all the three started sharing the 29% percentage that was hidden last time
On the ground, in Lusaka, MMD has a current clear presence which was not the case in 2006 and 2008 when Lusaka was virtually in Pf’s palm. Listen to the political conversations on lusaka streets, you will see that it is no longer one sided. There is a voice, unlike previously, clearly inclining towards RB.
That was your opinion of guess work, when people want change its when you are guessing; MMD is winning. Where did you conduct this opinion poll? Was it at an MMD RALLY? Or ba Dok are you counting MMD posters and fitenge materials? There’s nothing that has changed People’s minds from your last announcement remember we registered in large numbers to remove RB. This is good to please Kachingwe and his Dola Sili……… not the Zambians.
last time it was in fever with sata and he lost, this year they are in fever with MMD and the will lose this years election after investing heavly on materals let us wait and see thy dying minutes of final hour,.
**==
what is the percentage of 1500/ 5.2 million registered voters? then did the doc take into consideration the issue of strongholds and number of registered voters in strongholds? like copperbelt is the highest but was his sample equal to other provinces?
Where does CPD get this information from? who do they interview? How is it done? they want people to think that MMD is popular when not. we know that you are just being used
Is it true that Satan collapsed yesterday in Nalolo in Western province? Does this mean that the mad priest Bwalya will have to sacrifice a cow this time?
pabwatoo! mwamukolo!
VIVA PF VIVA SATA
VOTE SATA FOR PRESIDENT.
Pabwatooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo.
Typical kaponyas.Are you not aware that Satan has in the last 3 months;(1) lied that he knows were ballots are hidden? (2) lied that he has UPG corruption evidence through raheed lubinda & gay mmembe? (3) performed satanic chicken beheading rituals through moron bwalya? (4) exhibited dementia tendencies at funerals? unless you suffer from amnesia, you will dispute these polls.Zambians are watching and noticed RB’s consistent message of development.So dream on ba kaponya and get ready for your retirement.
This makes sense, keep it up CPD. With the Mongu funeral embarressment, Sata may be ranked third from Milupi.
I cant wait for abuse of office to be reinstated mwe!
What we have not be told is that out of the 1500 people, 95% were from Eastern Province. It means even HH is making inroads as well.
Donchi Batata!
Sorry DR if elections were to be held today but it will be held on 20th September. Fake opinion.
What we have not been told is that out of the 1500 people, 95% were from Eastern Province. It means even HH is making inroads as well.
Donchi Batata!
Reply
Dr on pay roll! Donchi Kebeba! Shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Dr on pay roll! Donchi Kubeba! Shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
YOU MUST BE SILLY,STUPID,PRIMITIVE AND MAD TO VOTE FOR SATA.ALL OF YOU WHO WILL VOTE FOR SATA ARE *****S.
but your dad will vote for him
#71 I thought you were supposedly making in roads in Eastern province? I thought Mangani had delivered Chipata central and there is also a fellow buffoon of yours who truly believes that pf can win in Luangeni? Did you not read that the sample of 1500 were interviewed around the country? Anyways, we have 13 days to go and we will see what you will say about this poll and the other three that predict a Banda victory then.
I can’t wait for PF to loose and I will not leave Zambia. Born in Zambia and will always be a free lancer journalist!!!!!!!! Keep the public informed!
What Free lancer na imwe?? You mean you are a journalist who receives his cheque from State House to write drivel and MMD propaganda!!
Economic Intelligence Unit says ‘nafuti, nafuti!’
Synovate says ‘chwe, chwe, chwe!’
Stanbic Bank says ‘pankoloko!’
CBD says ‘RB a president for all Zambians!’
Seems like only kaponyas, mad satanic priests and Bemba supremacists are saying ‘donchi kubeba!’
”Patriotic Front (PF) presidential candidate Michael Sata is said to have collapsed Tuesday in Nalolo constituency in Western province.
Details are still coming in but PF sources have revealed that Sata fell as he was trying to come out of the chopper he is using to fly to campaign areas.Sources say he was lifted off the chopper door by the pilot and taken to rest thereby changing the campaign programme.It is not yet clear what caused him to collapse”. ZWD.
thats the way to go chwe chwe chwe chwe today neo is being insulted just last week the prediction went mr sata’s way lol this is an opinion poll and now it points to RB chwel chwel chwela
The Satanic verses…….of homo’s…of liers….of madslingers…of excuses…and of losers.
On “This is a second opinion poll that CPD has conducted this year following an earlier one in May which favored PF leader Michael Sata” and the actual results that Dr Neo Simutanyi put up above, it is clear that his Opinion Pollhas seen HH improve by 1%, Sata MC by 7% while RB has gone up by about 14%.
all I see is that Dr NS simply produced figures of a selected sample of zambians to deceive many of us HH sympathisers. Sadly this strategy will not work in favor of it’s crafters.
Let’s us wait and see what will happen in 12 days and 12 Hrs time from today.
Be blest,
_
Matt 6:33
The choice is clear: allow MMD to win the election through violence and rigging and Zambia joins Libya and Egypt; All major towns are on fire and RB is forced out of power.Â
Or hold free and fair elections and Sata becomes the President, then peace and the rule of law prevails. The choice is yours. RB will not rule Zambia anymore. He must go back to Zimbabwe
Dont be foolish!!!!u have neva expirienced war before…dont dream of expiriencing one or u will regret…keep those ideaz to yo self DEVIL!!!!!!!!!!!!!
6% undecided. This is a significant figure given the difference of 3% between the two leading candidates (2% according to Zambia watchdog who give the figures as 40% RB and 38% Sata). A professional pollster would state that the results are “TOO CLOSE TO CALL” cos the undecided figure could change the outcome.
Vrery few people will vote in SATAN , VIva MMD Che-chwe-chwe, NAFUTI NAFUTI.
#82 You see these pf dunderheads, before a vote has been cast, they are already talking about rigging! Do you really think Zambians will risk their lives and those of their families just to give power to Sata simply because he cant win through the ballot box? Zambia is not Egypt of Libya as we can use the ballot boxes to choose our leaders. Of course you being a pathetic failure (pf) supporter will not realise that ballot boxes are not just for decorating tables as at the so called pf convention earlier this year but for choosing credible leadership for the country. Please dont go there with Zimbabwe, as we already know that Satan is such an admirer of Mugabe that he named his party ‘Patriotic Front’ after ZANU PF.
CPD survey is replica of frequent surveys conducted in more developed countries of mature democracies. This provides a moving direction of a likely result in elections before vote and people’s perceptions are influenced by issues promised by contestants & their characters. CPD is a credible institute and Dr Simuntanyi too is a credible accademitian and those questioning mode of eperandi used by CPD dont need to be listened too. Go to school to discover this or ask humbly. @60, @63 & others remember this is a credible survey that has given us a trend of the likely result previously and as at now. Talk to me.
Who is the President for allZambians?…….There will never be war here after the elections. This is no Libya and that is why we are voting. Cause problems after elections and you will regret for the rest of your miserable life….no room for trouble makers you will be stamped for sure.
Whether CPD poll or not its RB 2011 VIVA RB CHWEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEENAFUTINAFUTI
#48. Senior Citizen had argued that Neo s statistical analysis is flawed, PERIOD.
#90 So what did YOU argue then? Are you saying it was not flawed before but it is flawed now? Are you then not accusing Snr Citizen of the same thing you are doing? You see the cul-de-sac you have got yourself in (I guess not seeing as though you support the Satan)?
@86, when are u going to learn to think? The choice is clear. If corrupt MMD rigs the elections, Zambia will be on fire. MMD does not control urban areas, PF does. Just a reminder, who thought that England would be on fire? Again you forget that Mubarak went out of power after he won an election.  Please let Banda go back to Gwanda in peace and not in pieces. By the way, Banda can run to Zimbabwe, but most  Zambians dont have a second country to run to! MMD fools, all you need are brown envelopes! Mwanya, m****** mwe!. 29 Sept, 2011, Sata is the new president
#92 Zambia is not just the urban areas and just to educate you, democracy means that there are winners and losers. Please change the record about rigging allegations that you have never been able to prove. Just accept it, Satan’s campaigning has been dismal and his message of 90 days, donchi kubeba and his Bemba tribalism will not take him to state house. Even in the urban areas you are talking about, all you can see is blue everywhere, so who is going to fight and get themselves killed for a mad man with a dodgy ticker? If you want to get yourself shot for Satan, feel free my friend but fortunately the majority of Zambians are not that st.upid and value their lives and the peace that the country has been enjoying since independence. Â
#92 It is highly ridiculous and immature to think that just because the person you support loses then it must be due to rigging. Do you really think that we will believe Satan and his minions when they shout ‘rigging’ yet again when the same man claimed that ballot papers had already been printed and were in the country when that was absolutely impossible? If you want to get your brains blown out for a proven liar, then I feel sorry for your mother who gave birth to you but dont be surprised when you are alone when the bullet hits your head.
93 and 94 you are a big fool and that is the reason you see  MMD blue in Zambia’s urban areas when you are in the diaspora! What a shame!Â
The CDP opinion poll has given RB 41% and MCS 38%, a difference of 3%s based on a purportedly nation – wide probability sample of 1,500. The margin of error for a sample of 1,500 is actually plus/minus 2.58 percent. You arrive at the margin of error by finding the reciprocal of the square root of the sample size. I would like to believe that this result has a 95% confidence level which is a standard requirement in most opinion polls.
In layman’s language, 95% confidence level simply means that if one takes 100 random samples from the same population, 95% of the time one would get the result CDP came up with. The margin of error of plus/minus 2.58% or simply 2.6% gives the range in the total population within which the true results lie. To get this range, one has to add or subtract 2.6% to get the interval within which lies the true percentage for the two candidates. For RB, this means you get 41% and subtract 2.6% to get the lower limit of the interval and add 2.6% o to get the upper limit of the interval. Applied to both RB’s and MCS’s results, RB’s interval is (38.4% to 43.6%) and MCS (35.4% to 40.6%).
#95 What do you know about my travels and how and when and how recently I have been in Zambia? You support pf and you call me a fool? You can not understand the tenets of democracy and you call me a fool? I guess you have run out of arguments in support of your ka insurrection that wont take place after sept 20th. To carry on with the theme of the uprisings in the Middle-East, we are told that the uprisings started when somebody immolated themselves in either Morocco or Tunisia. I suggest you do the same on or soon after the 20th of Sept as that will mean you wont have to put up with the next five years of RB’s rule given the fact that the Zambian people are going to give him yet another mandate to be their head of state.
FACT
PF HAS LOST SUPPORT IN LUAPULA BECAUSE THE MWATA WHO WAS THEIR MAIN CAMPAIGNER IN THE LAST TRIPARTITE ELECTIONS HAS SHIFTED CAMP.
Since there is always an element of uncertainty in probability sampling, this means that just as it is likely for RB to lose 2.6% so that his percentage drops to the lower limit of 39.6%, so also is it probable for MCS to gain 2.6% so that his percentage rises to an upper limit of 40.6%. If this happened for instance, MCS would actually win the election by a margin of 2.2% .
What this opinion poll is therefore suggesting is that there is a statistical dead – heat between the two candidates, with no clear victor between RB and MCS. The CDP is simply saying that this election is too close call. This contest isn’t yet over. It is therefore premature to start toasting to RB’s victory just yet.
FACT
THE BREAK DOWN OF THE PF/UPND PACT OR IS IT THE UPND/PF FACT HAS AFFECTED THE PF’S CHANCES OF WINING THIS YEARS’ ELECTIONS.
PA NKOOOOOOOOOOOLOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOKOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
Iwe ci#92 its you highly ridiculous and immature to believe that people have changed and will vote for Banda. There shoulld be something wrong with your reasoning, Your thinking should be so low, what has changed so far in your mind? If you have not changed your support for your Banda then NO ONE HAS CHANGED support for MCS,HH,MIYANDA, MILUPI and all other candidates. What is making you afraid with the ONLINE(ZAM opinion poll) which is so open. You should be a very Big Foooooooooooooooooooooooo!
FACT
THE HEALTHY STATUS OF THE SERPENT HAS AFFECTED HIS CHANCES OF WINNING MORE VOTES.
PA NKOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOLOOOOOOOOOOOOOOKOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
FACT
CHANDA CHIMBA THE III’S PROGRAMMES HAD DEALT A KNOCK OUT PUNCH ON THE SERPENT AND HIS MINIONS. IF THOSE PROGRAMMES DID NOT HAVE AN EFFECT ON SERPENT’S CHANCES OF WINNING HE COULD NOT HAVE RUSHED TO COURT. PA NKOOOOOOOOOOOOLOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOKOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
98 Bishop Mpundu’s sisters are more sweet than Dr Kaseba: The truth finally got you. If  you can see all blue in Lusaka from the diaspora, then you are confused or extremely out of touch with reality. Only a mad person can imagine seeing Lusaka from the diaspora.  Your mental capacity needs immediate evaluation or else you will be deported on mental grounds. Sorry sick man but you are a mental case hiding in the diaspora. Thanks be to God, you are not in Chainama but all the same, you have better medical care down there. Let them keep you down there forever.Â
Going by the debates here it is clear that MMD supporters are mature, level headed and discuss issues. PF supporters however are childish, immature, full of insults, in some cases dull, reminsent of the un inspiring don’t kubeba slogan. It will be a tragedy of un imaginable proportions if) were to lose these elections to Sata. God forbid!
FOR THOSE WHO WANT CHANGE, LET THEM VOTE FOR PF.
FOR THOSE WHO WANT WILLIAM BANDA & RB, LET THEM VOTE FOR R.B
FOR THOSE WHO WANT TO VOTE FOR FUN, LET THEM VOTE FOR OTHERS.
ma Rubbish !!!
what you should know about this election is that it is different from 2008 presidential by election.MMD will win less than 50 MPs in parliament and Banda cannot declare himself as a winner obody will accept.He cannot become president with 50 or less mps in parliament.simutayi you are a joker just benefit now because mmd is going.Â
#105 Just take up my challenge of burning yourself after you lose on the 20th and we will see how many people will follow you. You seem to thrive on innuendo and hallucinations about rigging even before the first ballot has been cast. If you and your pathetic failures feel that the votes will be rigged, then why not boycott the whole process. I think it is absolutely hilarious, for somebody who associates himself with the likes of Sata and the tribalist priest Bwalya to cast aspersions on anybody’s mental health. Bury your head in the sand of the Barotse flood plain if you want, but that wont change the fact that RB has made in roads into PF areas such as Lusaka, which as I recall were supposed to be flag bearers for a pf govt, and we all know what a disaster that has been.
crazy
#109 Bishop Mpundu’s sisters are more sweet than Dr Kaseba, I fully agree with those who think you are sick. What are you talking about? Barotse plain? Fr Bwalya? Ashamed resident #105 did not say anything to that effect. Please sir/madam, rush to the hospital; your mental state is questionable
Max mbizo good analysis. An addition is that outcome will also be influenced by turn out in the different strongholds
There is some good indication that this poll is pointing to the truth because it was random and 1500 voters randomly picked is sufficient to provide the confidence level of + or -2. The only criticism I have is that it has not offered any explanation on how to deal with the 6% undecided posters because these can swing the voter either way. Without knowing the behaviour of the undecided voters we cannot conclusively talk of a tight confidence level. My guess is that the 6% are PF’s sympathizers but they are not comfortable to come up in the open in order to protect their interest and intellectuals hide their support for Sata because of his behaviour. Above RB’s developmental projects could put vote for change on hold.
the latest is that Mr Sata collapsed
Too many PF supporters read LT need to read the post insteadÂ
you will give yourselves a heart attack
THIS IS BUSHIT RUPIAH U PAY PIPO TO SAY SILLY THINGS ON YOU REMEMBER OPINION POLLS DO NOT VOTE..U GALU
Donci kubebaaaa…………………………!! 12 days to go and RB will be kicked out of State house. Sakala nyongo wakantu!! Viva pa Bwatoooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!!!
Online poll would not be a true representative of voters in Zambia so don’t even think this could be an alternative to what ever you dislike about CPD.
i have always doubted Neo Simutanyi because of his political ambitions. If he can explain simple Principle Component Analysis , then he deserves all the credit. Its possible for one to have a PhD is continue doing the right things in a VERY WRONG way and he goes away with it. I can do better Statistics that Neo Simutanyi
Against all odds. Zambians RB is dull he can not articulate issues.Of all the presidents we have had he is the worste. Even Kafupi was much better than him dispite corruption charges lvelled against him. So why vote for him? He has messed up Zambia. Just look around you and you will confirm what I am talking about.
The CPD’s poll makes sense. Sata will take the urban areas (but not 100%) and RB will take the rural areas (not 100% either). Zambia’s population is 36% urban with the rest being in the rural areas, so which would you rather take? Popularity in Lusaka and the Copperbelt is far from enough to win elections in Zed. Campaign in the urban areas but put a lot more effort in the rural areas and you’ve clinched it. I believe that’s what MMD are doing.
THIS IS TRUE NEO RB MUST WIN WE DONT WANT BYELECTIONS SOON THE POST ARE ENEMIES OF ZAMBIA THEY WANT THE COUNTRY TO GO TO WAR WITH AMERICANS.BAD CHAPS *****S.VIVA RB NAFUTI NAFUTI. SATA IS SICK THATS THE TRUTH
Zambian urban population 36%,rural 64%……………………………………… do yo own mathematics as to who will win nafuti nafuti
I’m glad that our opinion poll has generated so much interest and debate. I was called all kind of names and insulted by those not favoured by the polls in 2006. In the last poll, the public media completely blacked out poll findings. What should be noted is that 27% of respondents were undecided in our April poll. There is no need to insult the messenger. The results are based a scientific survey methodology used by polling agencies the world over. Let us wait for the Election to validate the findings. The point is the 6 percent undecided may not change the overall result, as it may go to HH and other 8 candidates. I will not be drawn into the insults and innuendos. People are more decided now than they were in April.