Former MMD national secretary Katele Kalumba says the prediction by Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD) tipping President Banda to win the September 20 election confirms his analysis that President Banda will win the forthcoming elections.
Dr Kalumba said in an interview from Chiengi on yesterday that his forecast that President Banda will win the poll is based on a computer assisted political mapping, developed by Harvard University Professor Michael Reich.
“I do in principle agree with the poll projection that Centre for Policy Dialogue executive director Dr Neo Simutanyi has released. It reflects by and large to some extent my own political mapping I have been sharing with some of the MMD party leaders, which is also quite broad-based,” Dr Kalumba said
He said according to his political mapping, the most significant variable affecting the performance of all political parties is the economy. Dr Kalumba said the MMD under President Banda’s leadership has been consistent and steadfast in maintaining positive economic indicators.
“On account of that, the general sentiments in the market, particularly rural markets have been positive. People are satisfied that they have food and disposable income after selling their produce,” Dr Kalumba said.
He also said President Banda’s administration has been consistent in its policy messages and has not been seen ‘flip flopping’ like Mr Sata. “The inconsistencies in PF policy have been quite remarkable. The United Party for National Development has been hurt in public perception by its misplaced faith in the PF and it did not have time to improve public confidence,” Dr Kalumba said.
He also said the lower and middle-income voters in both the rural and urban areas have not been hoodwinked by emotionally-charged statements about quick-fixes on policy issues, because they have seen the tangible developments under the MMD.
“The lower and middle-income voters have seen the improvements in road, education and health infrastructure including mobile hospitals which the MMD has effectively defended,” Dr Kalumba said.
He also said his political mapping indicates that the majority Zambians feel secure under President Banda’s leadership.
[pullquote] He also said there has been what he described as a ‘burnout’ in perceived PF strongholds of Lusaka, Copperbelt and Luapula provinces because the people feel that Mr Sata can only excite them but cannot win this year’s elections.[/pullquote]
“People feel that President Banda will be a more secure hand as President of the State because they can trust him with the instruments of force like the army, air force and other security wings, without causing catastrophic circumstances. But most people cannot say that about Mr Sata. They feel insecure with him and he has not shaken that perception at all.
“There is some sense that if Mr Sata came into power, he will create an environment of instability and not peace and reconciliation,” Dr Kalumba said. He also said there has been what he described as a ‘burnout’ in perceived PF strongholds of Lusaka, Copperbelt and Luapula provinces because the people feel that Mr Sata can only excite them but cannot win this year’s elections.
On UPND president Hakainde Hichilema, Dr Kalumba said Mr Hichilema is not yet ‘ripe’ for the challenge of leading the nation and needs to be tested a bit more.
He, however, said Mr Hichilema has potential to become President in the future, not this year.
[Zambia Daily Mail]
Was Katele using the juju laptop he was caught with last time when he was hiding? Just asking. Opinions polls will always be just that – opinions – we wait for the real stuff on 20th! Wina azalila!
Amene Azalila ni RB, consider how much billions he has spent in few weeks just to get my vote, but I made my decision long ago and I can not just be sweept by ” developmental projects” after 20 years of MMD, WHY NOW THE HURRY !!!!!, sure azalila
Confirmed mine too.
Mary…you are not Zambia….
The predictions of the opnion polls are strongly conservative, based on respondents mostly captured from urban centres. However, taken into account that: (1) Sata is inconsistent over many salient issues; (1) augmented by Sata signs of health failure in the field; (3) in view of the fact that Sata has accepted failed politicians who have diluted the morale of PF’s long-serving cadres;(4) taking into account the Chiluba factor in Luapula; (5) also taking into account Hichilima’s insensitivity to divergent views expressed by Major Chizyuka; (6) noting visible infrastructures put up in all provinces; (7) RB’s good relationship with students’ Unions; then the reality on the ground is that President Rupiah Banda will bounce back to power with a resounding win for him and his MMD.
DS malama dream on
Bull shit chabe uletusebanya fwe bena Luapula
that was a JUJU Laptop at work
shit o no u t
Imwe sure MUBARAK mu cort bedriden or rather confined to a bed?
working for freedom. disgraced Dr
Am in Mongu right now and RB is addressing a rally and the attendance is better than we expected
No 12, insatiable liar..u r not in western..no where near there..stop lying
HnE (His next Excellency) is the only one of the big wigs who is not wearing MMD Regalia! The story doing the rounds is that he is going to be the next President of MMD, as RB has lost (or is losing) it! All these guys who are clamouring would have worn themselves out of the race (|HH, Gen M) Kunda might even lose his QC credentials for MHSRIP! (No harm intended) but he would not have the zeal or the stamina of traditional computer technician, to tour the country for the next 5 years after driving around the comfort of mini presidential motorcade for the last 3 years! The Rottweiler’s (Chital, Mpombo and Mulongoto breed) have no chance of coming back though they can claim to have been illegally expelled!
Katele why are you QUITE..Zambians Know you. If RB was obviously winning you would have been moving with HIM like Enoch Kavidele…But you are quite because you that Sata and RB are at 50/50 until 20th..despite all the propangana by MMD against Sata. Ok …iwe a Headman what if Sata..wins what are you going to say…shiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii….
This is when we would really need the fresh bloodhounds (Chipimo and Co) who I understand would like to run the country as a company! Let the games continue….
Fromaman who had mobile internet before it was introduced in Zambia. Say no more! Donchi!
From a man who had mobile internet before it was introduced in Zambia. Say no more! Donchi!
Sub-Chief Natende you have cracked my ribs from laughing!Computor Political Mapping.Zambia offers the best comedy
I am told Katele uses SATNAV in his cars in Zambia!
we know all the plans of rigging the elections using southern province along namwala gwembe corrindor..mmd has offered to give ecz acredited officers to manupilate the results in favour of mmd..they have offered them k12million each..they did this north-western,luapula and now they want to use southern province..pliz PF CHK THIS THIS TRUE..NAPAPATA
Finished KATELE. JUST KEEP QUIET
Zambians, why do we quarrel about anything and everything.If Dr.Simutanyi says this is HIS opinion that MMD will win by hammering both Sata and HH in the ballot.Should we really miss sleep over it more so that the opinion says IF ELECTIONS WERE HELD AT THE DATE OF THE OPINION.
Katele just keep Quite…Headmen are non.Partisan…so you are VILLAGE HEAD…
stastical model gives a prediction but not the actual results. it depends on data you feed it with and how it corelates with the situation the ground. Some models will never accomodate enviromental factors.And these are the things that end up defining the actual results. factors such as migration,poverty levels,provations which the model can not accomodated. unless we have an essemble of different models and experts of no political inclination.
This criminal must have been paid to enhance the bogus opinion poll by Simutanyi. Simutanyi is a paid agent of the status quo.
BA KATELE MWALIPWA YOU ARE FINISHED PERSON EVEN THE WICHERY THAT U HAD CAN TELL YOU THAT YOU ARE FINISHED. THE PREDICTION BY CDP ARE A MERE SPECULATION JUSTIFYING THAT YOU PIPO WANT TO RIG, WHERE CAN YOU GO IN LUAPULA YOU KATELE YOU WALK LIKE A CHICKEN THERE , STOP SPECULATING MULECHIMONA PIPO NOW KNOW HOW YOU CHEAT WE ARE BETTER NOW THAN THAT TIME YOU ARE A FINISHED CADRE JUST TRYING TO SERVR YOURSELF.
This Katele is still around?
Too late, RB has outwitted you ba PF. If he won last time without even doing a single thing, what about now, when people are seeing things happening?
Just like last time, I told hard core PF cadres , including my brother in-law that Sata can’t win an election, and they did not believe me and that time, Lusaka and the Copperbelt were hardcore PF, not now when MMD has gained so much ground along the line of rail. It is another disaster for PF this year.
katele, opinion is just an opinion, and we are all here merely expressing our own opinions, come 20th september thats when we gona know the facts.
Mary Mwanza, yu are not Norma!
1500 sample cannot be a representative of over 5.2m voters. that’s about 0.03percent. so the opinion poll cannot scare us ba PF. take courage pa bwato.
DONCHI KUBEBA must be given a chance MMD have had 20 years It’s the same old thing we need a change even if it’s for one term. VOTE FOR THE RIGHT MAN don’t waste your vote on a corrupt president! Mwanawansa stood for the right thing he was a GREAT leader not this RBISH we’ve got trying to run the country. He couldn’t even organise a piss up in a brewery. DONCHI KUBEBA…….GIVE THEM A CHANCE THEY CAN’T DO ANY WORSE ..TRY AND SEE….
i always say this, voting for SATA is NOT CHANGE!! He has been in Govt since 1964 for crying out loud. If your motive is change then talk about Chipimo, Milupi or HH. When u refer to Sata, say ‘We want former MMD members to take over”, not ‘We want change’ ok? Elo experimenting with leadership of a country is just not advisable. :)
HH is ripe enough. We need him this time as president.How do you plant the old seed and keep the new seed for next season? You are the chaps who have made zambia not to have even development..
I dont know why people are singing about 20 years of this and that. RB has ruled for three years and you are seeing the development. The people you should blame are KK, Chiluba and Mwanawasa. Give the man some credit. Campaign or not, things are happening. The least development if any was during KK time because he was busy directing Zambian to liberation struggles of neighbouring countries that add no value to us. Now you besaint him and even allowing him to do adverts on the importance of voting when for 27 years he denied us the right.
Very shameful
Katele, balimuchofa ijuka. He has been made to be a defuncto campaign manager thinking he will go scot free after Banda wins. What he does not know is that Banda does not like him at all. It is Malawi MMD now. He should check the senior officials in the party before he excites himself with bogus statistical analysis that he never conducted.
The only poll that matters is the election, Check what happened in UK in 1991 when the Labour party was tipped to win and lost. Just keep campaining.
what people dont understand is the Katele has always been MMD..the fact that he has a court case does not make him PF or what ever..NO! he remains MMD and he supports the interests of the MMD..he did a research that many of us have not done…and has found that RB is winning,…as for me..its-VOTE RB VOTE MMD..2011
Some people will collapse if MMD loses.They have invested SO much, it is a life or death contest for them, I wonder why when they claim to have done so well!
Masipa
sometimes i tend to wonder whether this man has morals.mr katele is one of the criminals that need to be sent to mukobeko or chimbokauila prisons for raping the economy of our country.Let him jst shut-up his big mouth .He is a thief and noone can deny that.We know he just want to secure his protection from going to jail….But to everything theres time.
I don’t like this term of Donchi Kubeba it expresses little minds.
THE COLLAPSE OF THE PACT HAS AFFECTED THE POOR FINISHERS’ CHANCES OF WINNING. HE SWEPT LUAPULA IN 2006 AND 2008 BUT THIS TIME THE STORY IS DIFFERENT. THEIR NO EUPHORIA FOR CHANGE ON THE COPPERBELT AND LUSAKA, THEIR PERCEIVED STRONGHOLD.
The Synovate opinion poll has given RB 42% and MCS 37%, a difference of 5%s based on a random sample of 1,463 and a margin of error of plus/minus 2.4%. The CDP opinion poll has given RB 41% and MCS 38%, a difference of 3%s based on a purportedly nation – wide probability sample of 1,500 with a margin of error of plus/minus 2.58 percent. Both polls supposedly have a 95% confidence level which is a standard requirement in most opinion polls.
In layman’s language, 95% confidence level simply means that if one takes 100 random samples from the same population, 95% of the time one would get the result CDP and Synovate came up with. For the CDP poll, the margin of error of plus/minus 2.58% or simply 2.6% gives the range in the total population within which the true results lie. To get this range, one has to add or subtract 2.6% to get the interval within which lies the true percentage for the two candidates. For RB, this means you get 41% and subtract 2.6% to get the lower limit of the interval and add 2.6% o to get the upper limit of the interval. Applied to both RB’s and MCS’s results, RB’s interval is (38.4% to 43.6%) and MCS (35.4% to 40.6%).
Using the same reasoning for the Synovate poll, RB’s interval is (39.6% to 44.4%) and MCS (34.6% to 39.4%). Since there is always an element of uncertainty in probability sampling, this means in the case of CPD poll for example, just as it is likely for RB to lose 2.6% so that his percentage drops to the lower limit of 39.6%, so also is it probable for MCS to gain 2.6% so that his percentage rises to an upper limit of 40.6%. If this happened for instance, MCS would actually win the election by a margin of 2.2%. In the case of the Synovate, it does not guarantee RB a categorical victory either. In fact, it shows that the two might even end up in statistical tie where RB ends up with 39.6% and MCS with 39.4%.
What both these opinion polls are therefore suggesting is that there is a statistical dead – heat between the two candidates, with no clear victor between RB and MCS. Both polls are simply saying that this election is too close to call; that the contest isn’t yet over. It is therefore premature to start toasting to RB’s victory just yet.
The comments on this issue I am reading on this site says a lot about our low levels of staistical literacy in the country when you have even intelligent people like Katele uncritically swallowing every opinion poll including those conducted by bona fide charlatans line, hook, and sinker!
Max Mbizo,
Relax before you bite your tongue, iwe!
An opinion remains an opinion its not a reality
The fact is that RB is sponsoring this fake opinon polls so that people get discouraged but we’ll vote against RB.what we need is people to monitor elections.we should volonteer ouselves to monitor the elections.PF supporters let us campaign to shame the devil.
Way kaloshi way catch colour
any one with information about rigging just circulate fast so that we deal with this individual selffish zambians.
Mwe bantu, RB has no match in these elections. He certainly will with much more than he did in 2008. Like it or hate it, that’s the truth.
Thanks Max Mbizo for the stastical analysis.However,fellow Zambians am not comfortable with alll these predictions coming from the ruling party.I hope it is not what am thinking of.
Does anybody know that a lot of people asked to conduct research in Zambia don’t even go out into the field but sit under a tree and fill in questionnaires and then pretend to their supervisors that they actually went out into the field? I have very little faith in data collectors in Zambia. By the way where and when did Simutanyi get his PhD?
SHOUT UP ******YOU CORRUPT PIECE OF SHIT.YOU ARE A WIZARD
Opinions are like ass holes,everybody has got one,including the expected victor.
BA MMD YOU ARE OVER CONFIDENT.YOUR LUANSHYA ASPIRING CANDIDATE MULUBWA WAS ON RACE TO MANDAHILL AND HAD NOTHING TO OFFER.I EVEN WONDERED HOW HE MANAGES TO RUN ALL THOSE CHAT BREWERIES!LETS WAIT FOR THE 20TH
Zambia for development and development we shall believe in Viva RB Viva RB Viva MMD Viva more schools more houses more clinics more roads
Send that katele thief to jail we have no time for crimials making funny statments, the appeal cort is watching you!
if you think pf is winning you are full of shit 98% of your body is shit. How come sata says when he was minister of health in mmd govt, he introduced nurses trousers but when you say he never looked at on call allowances he says the mmd was suppossed to do that. what a serpent some of u chaps like
its not about who talks alot, its about what policies the govt has. MMD will continue with theirs. PF with a borrowed constitution from UNIP and manifesto from UPND kaya
The prediction is correct beacouse Mr.sata Has a lot of donchi kuvoters (pipo withuot voters cards) and it makes him a donchi kuteka
Viva RB,MMD
It’s MMD period, no matter how much you yap or rant. Nga muletalika call me on September 22, 2011. I will be in Lusaka then and my phone will be activated: 097 770 771 or 096 770 771 or meet me at Rhapsody for a free lunch on the same date. I will be in MMD colours!!