Last year’s election was won by a margin of 27,000 votes. With both leading candidates having a lot to lose, this Thursday’s could be just as close.
At a UPND rally in Lusaka on 6 August. Credit: Nicole Beardsworth.
Across much of Zambia, a tense atmosphere prevails ahead of the country’s fifth elections in ten years. The ruling Patriotic Front (PF) – in power for only one term – has pulled out all the stops, covering the country’s biggest cities with enormous billboards and handing out countless branded t-shirts, caps, fedora hats and hooded jumpers.
Youths dressed in ruling party regalia lounge on street corners in Lusaka, and in some areas of the capital, fights between supporters of different parties have erupted – presaging the closely-fought electoral contest to be held on 11 August. In this historically peaceful nation, concerns are being raised repeatedly about the potential for election-related violence as the campaigns ramp up their rhetoric to drive up voter turnout.
Although there are nine candidates standing in the presidential race, this is really a competition between two juggernauts – the ruling Patriotic Front (PF), led by President Edgar Lungu; and the recently-ascendant United Party for National Development (UPND) and its candidate Hakainde Hichilema.
[See: Hichilema: It’s high time to fix Zambia after 5 years of failed leadership]
These two figures faced off in January 2015’s presidential by-election, which was triggered by the death of President Michael Sata. In that contest, the ruling party won by a wafer-thin margin of 27,000 votes. This Thursday’s vote looks like it could be just as close.
Ethnic and regional considerations
The results of the election 18 months ago followed a clear regional pattern. Northern Zambia largely voted for the ruling PF (albeit in relatively low numbers), while the South came out strongly to vote for the UPND. But these trends may not hold to the same degree this time around. While the South and West are likely to vote overwhelmingly for the UPND, the PF’s support in the North is no longer so assured.
In 2011, the PF came to power under President Sata, a populist Bemba-speaking leader who hailed from the North but who was able to galvanise the urban poor and capitalise on anti-government sentiment. By contrast, Lungu hails from the East, but is widely seen as an urbanite who cut his teeth in Lusaka.
In order to shore up support in the East in 2015, Lungu relied heavily on the backing of former president Rupiah Banda of the Movement for Multiparty Democracy (MMD). But in 2016, Banda has been much less visible on the PF campaign trail, up until the final week. The PF has also recruited MMD’s Felix Mutati to campaign in the North and East, but it is unclear how much support the former ruling party will be able to muster.
In what many analysts see as a strategic gaffe, Lungu also chose a Westerner – 77-year-old Vice President Inonge Wina – as his running mate in 2016, leaving its traditional Northern Bemba-speaking constituency without a champion in the party’s upper echelons.
For its part, the UPND has worked hard to challenge the suggestion that they can only attract votes in the South and has stacked its line-up with prominent Northerners including: former PF Defence Minister Geoffrey Bwalya Mwamba (popularly known as GBM), Mutale Nalumango, Patrick Mucheleka, MMD’s Nevers Mumba, and Sata’s son and nephew Mulenga Sata and Miles Sampa.
The UPND has also attracted key former political heavyweights such as: former PF Acting President Guy Scott; his wife Charlotte Scott, who is running for the Lusaka Central parliamentary seat; and former MMD First Lady Maureen Mwanawasa, who has her sights set on the position of Lusaka Mayor.
These dynamics will be important this Thursday, but ethnicity is just one dimension of mobilising voters, and the Zambian electorate has shown itself to be particularly adept at ignoring or subverting ethnic appeals in previous elections. Many other issues will be crucial in determining people’s choice at the ballot box.
The economy and the big issues
In the 2015 elections, the PF was in a weak position. The party was divided after a bitter leadership battle, which left Lungu unable to make effective use of state and party resources. Meanwhile, the election came at a bad time when government had yet to deliver on important promises such as the implementation of the Barotseland Agreement, the installation of the Bemba paramount chief, and the creation of a new constitution.
In addition, the government had been unable to pay farmers for maize, had placed an unpopular freeze on government hiring and wage increases, and had fired striking nurses. These issues were enough to convince nearly half of the urban population to vote for the opposition.
After the election, the Zambian economy took further blows. Fluctuations in the price of copper – the country’s mainstay – led the kwacha to be the world’s third-worst performer in 2015 as it dropped 42% against the dollar. In late-2015, regional drought and mismanagement of riverine resources led to rolling blackouts and the importation of expensive foreign electricity. And mining companies threatened closures and suspensions, leading the country’s Copperbelt heartland to shed approximately 10,000 jobs. Zambia’s economic growth slowed to 3% from 7% in 2014 and the cost of living soared.
The economy thus took a serious beating, though in the past few months, the situation seems to have improved. Electricity has temporarily returned, the government haspromised more copper production and thus more jobs on the Copperbelt, fuel shortages have dissipated, and the kwacha has stabilised. Furthermore, the government has introduced a wide-ranging constitutional amendment act, the wage freeze has expired, the fired nurses have been reinstated, the Bemba chief has been installed, and the salaries of traditional leaders have been raised three-fold in order to shore up rural support.
However, there are suspicions that in this campaign, the PF has been spending well beyond its means. In late July, a recording surfaced between the finance minister and PF secretary-general which appeared to suggest that the party was using state resources for its campaign. And if the government spends more than it has, the PF may be mortgaging the country’s future on this election, postponing the inevitable hardships this will bring for ordinary Zambians in the aftermath.
[See: Copper, poverty and tax dodging: At the heart of Zambia’s high stakes elections]
In this election, it seems the urban vote will be particularly critical. The two most urbanised provinces – Lusaka and the Copperbelt – account for nearly one-third of all registered voters, and these areas have been most affected by political violence by members of both parties.
It is difficult to predict which way these areas will vote. On the one hand, the PF’s control over urban space and collection of informal rents in areas such as bus stands, market stalls and water provision points have left some urban citizens in a more precarious position. The urban poor have also been most affected by the rapid rate of inflation – at approximately 20% – and drastic rise in the price of maize.
On the other hand, the ruling party is hoping its overwhelming presence in urban space and its expensive urban infrastructure projects will carry the day. Its key campaign slogan is Sonta, which is short for the Bemba phrase “sonta apo wabomba”, meaning “look what we’ve done”.
This infrastructure, however, has come at a huge cost, with Zambia’s external debt climbing from $3.6 billion in 2012 to $7.6 billion by June 2016. This will certainly prompt painful interventions from the IMF and World Bank, but the PF has been at pains to defer this until after the election.
Tapping into this, Hichilema is riding on a narrative of how the PF has bankrupted the economy and playing up his business acumen in an attempt to garner votes from the disaffected groups. His campaign slogan is “HH will fix it”.
Violence and irregularities
In its campaign, the UPND has faced significant difficulties. Rally and flight permits have been denied, posters and billboards have been torn down, and ruling party youths have disrupted campaign activities. The UPND’s vice-presidential candidate has been particularly targeted. Since 2015, he has been arrested numerous times, and last month, his home was teargassed and raided while his wife, children and grandchildren were inside.
As of June, the government has also shut down The Post newspaper, the country’s only independent paper, on charges that it owes $6.3 million in taxes. This decision was roundly condemned by activists, the opposition and foreign embassies. The Post has been a crucial player in uncovering maladministration, corruption and government incompetence, including reports in 2016 of electoral malpractice and the registration offoreign voters.
Despite a number of key rulings, the Post has not been allowed to reopen and publish freely. This means the state media is left with a monopoly of the print media market and has used its free reign to undertake constant attacks against the opposition, violating ethical standards of journalism, and calling the fairness of the electoral environment into question.
Last month, the UPND’s Lusaka campaign centre was also raided by police, effectively shutting it down and undermining its ability to mount a substantive challenge in the capital. Furthermore, on 8 July, an opposition supporter was killed by police in Lusaka, leading to a ten-day suspension of all campaign activities in the capital.
A diplomatic source revealed to African Arguments that several members of both the opposition and the ruling party have died during the campaign. In addition, the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) project which uses media reports to track conflict patterns has counted more than 50 episodes of electoral violence in the country between January and July. The levels of violence being seen are unprecedented for Zambia. The fear, uncertainty and lack of party control over cadres have produced a situation in which there has been a mutual escalation of violence amidst acts of recrimination and retribution. For this reason, it seems that diplomatic missions, donors and electoral observers are more concerned about the possibility of violence than the fairness of the vote.
[See: Zambia’s 2016 elections: is a disputed outcome now inevitable?]
Under the new run-off system, a candidate needs to achieve 50%+1 of the vote in order to win. If no nominee achieves this, a second round will be held. The race as it stands if far too close to call, but if the opposition loses, it may well take to the streets to voice its dissent, especially given the widespread stories of electoral malpractice. If the ruling party loses, it is unclear how it might react, though the long history of the neutrality of Zambia’s security forces may prevent violent spillovers.
For Edgar Lungu and his coterie, this is an election that they can’t afford to lose, not least for the fear that they could face criminal prosecution over allegations of corruption. For Hakainde Hichilema, this could be the closest he will ever get to the presidency and is likely to be his last chance.
With so many variables and so much to lose on both sides, this Thursday promises a hotly contested election that could be dangerously close.
Nicole Beardsworth is a South African political analyst and doctoral candidate at the University of Warwick.
It wont even be close, landslide for PF
UPND IS WINNING BY NOT LESS THAN 65%.
LUNGU WILL CERTAINLY BE OUR NEXT PRESIDENT. LUNGU HAS SUFFERED A TECHNICAL KNOCK IN VIEW OF THE CONCOURT RULING. HIS DECISION TO ALLOW ILLEGALITY, THINKING THAT THE COUNTRY WAS HIS, WILL HAUNT HIM. IN THE LIKELY EVENT THAT HE WINS, THAT VICTORY WILL BE CHALLENGED AND IT WILL BE NULLIFIED ON THE BASIS OF THE ILLEGAL AND UNCOSTITUTIONAL DECISION HE MADE TO ALLOW MINISTERS TO CONTINUE IN OFFICE AFTER THE DISSOLUTION OF PARLIAMENT. THE MAN HAD SHOT HIMSELF IN THE FOOT, HE CANNOT NOW WALK. CHINTOFWA AYILE NA MAFI KUBUKO. THIS IS WHAT HAS HAPPENED TO LUNGU.
CORRECTION ABOVE: LUNGU WILL CERTAINLY NOT BE OUR NEXT PRESIDENT.
This is the problem when the writer picks information from old reports and relies on some stereotyping to analyse the current situation. Too many falsehoods and half truths in this writing. Just to show a few;Mumba,Sampa,Mucheleka are not political heavy weights in Bemba speaking areas-they failed to win HH votes in Jan’15. Issues on fired nurses,late payment to maize farmers,wage freeze had their time in Jan’15 not this time around! Electricity has not improved temporarily but sustainably since Maamba will be feeding in 300MW which was not there+imports and solar grids under development!NW,West,South vote for,HH while the rest vote for the party,MMD or PF with different leaders. Electoral malpractices have not been proven but to a contrary UPND and its supporters are the ones…
.continued…Electoral malpractices have not been proven but to a contrary UPND and its supporters are the ones perpetrating them. So many issues mentioned in this analysis which do not relate to reality on the ground.To conclude:basing ones hope to win an election based on such reports and biased and unfounded opinion polls cooked in some boardrooms of economic vampires is deceit and recipe for disaster as the outcome from reality could be too shocking to believe!!
You are semi illiterate sir. You had very little contact with the classroom. When the author says “In addition, the government had been unable to pay farmers for maize, had placed an unpopular freeze on government hiring and wage increases, and had fired striking nurses. These issues were enough to convince nearly half of the urban population to vote for the opposition” he is referring to the 2015 elections. Don’t think with your heart sir
@2.2 Kambwili, this is what I meant that being far from reality is a recipe for disaster!! Do you believe urban voters are very worried about unpaid rural maize farmers 2015 or today? When were the farmers paid late? This was 2014? When did Lungu win in rural areas of Eastern,Luapula,Muchinga,Central and even Lusaka and CB,2015? Do you believe people are still talking about nurses who were fired at UTH and L/stone who got re-instated a year ago?For a year ago, he needs to know that the main reasons PF’s standing was a bit shaken in Lusaka was due to confusion in PF at that time. Most PF strongholds were apathetic due to that confusion! Now face the reality of today’s Lungu in power and issues at hand, then project the outcome!
For the opposition my advise to you especially UPND, whatever happens tomorrow if you do not get it, do not give up HH , remember former president of USA Abraham Lincoln failed for 8 times before he got it. Please keep on trying , but I know tomorrow it is your day as well to celebrate with GBM, why do I say so:
(1) The coming of GBM will add more votes than you got in 2015 in the Bemba land when you were alone
(2) The collapsing economy is actually vindicating you HH I still remember in 2015 you warned us but we never listened
(3) The sympathy vote is now long gone from PF
(4) The closure of mines will definitely help you.
(5) The beating of innocent people by PF will definitely favour you because Zambians do not like violent leaders like that one from country we know.
HH IS WINNING THIS TIME AROUND. HE SHOULD JUST START PREPARING HOW HE IS GOING TO LEAD THE COUNTRY TO PROSPERITY AS HE HAS MADE HIMSELF PROSPEROUS. HE SHOULD PREPARING TO MOVE ZAMBIA FORWARD.
Loopsided article. PF will win in the first round. UPND has always won in opinion polls and social media.
..continued…Electoral malpractices have not been proven but to a contrary UPND and its supporters are the ones perpetrating them. So many issues mentioned in this analysis which do not relate to reality on the ground.To conclude:basing ones hope to win an election based on such reports and biased and unfounded opinion polls cooked in some boardrooms of economic vampires is deceit and recipe for disaster as the outcome from reality could be too shocking to believe!!
Edgar Lungu is a thief who has stolen our money together with his ministers. You will pay back all what you have stolen. Attorney general advised Lungu that ministers jobs finished on 12th May, 2016 but ignored him. Pay back time
I think this writer will also fail his Doctorate degree attempt because this trash of an article is what real professors call statement. It’s analysis is poor, not balanced and biased and not researched. But we have a message for him, let him wait for Friday as the results pour in. President Lungu and PF have won these elections with 62% and like it or not Sunday will inauguration day for Lungu.
Very true the author was either not objective or just dull. He was writing what his paymasters wanted. Too late we have already made up our minds.
HH…go for it
All these so called researchers opinion polls and whatever names you call yourselves must be very careful whenever they say Upnd will win. There has never been any one who has rightly predicted about Upnd. The problem is that you are paid by hh to conduct such researches just in order to please him and him smile that his money is bringing good news. If you want a real opinion poll ask a member from pf to evaluate your performance and give you the real picture.
These elections are for Upnd to lose and you are losing with an award.
The outcome of this election will stem mainly from the economic decline, kwacha failure, power blackouts, loss of jobs on the copper-belt and divisions which happened as a result of defections from the PF. Secondly, Lungu has no experience in campaigns unlike H.H who has been in the opposition for many years, he has also used seasoned campaign manager in the name of Dipak Patel who definitely showed how its done, judging from the way HH concentrated in areas he lost last polls in.
Lungu may also put up a surprise package as many youths who are also new voters in Lusaka, Eastern and Northern may back him up. He must also expect a decline in voters on the PF owing to the death of MCS whose support came because of his socialization with the people, a fact which Lungu doesn’t have…
Was Dipak patel not one of hh,s campaign mgr in 2015???
An interesting analysis, quite fair and objective. With the constitutional court ruling, if any minister or their deputy wins, they are subject to valid election petition to have their elections nullified. So interesting times ahead.
who is Nicole Beardsworth
My girlfriend, so don’t insult her otherwise you will have me to reckon with!
Nicole Beardsworth who is a South African political analyst and doctoral candidate at the University of Warwick shocks me by his primitive analysis. I wonder if really is doctoral candidate. LOOK AT THIS “In what many analysts see as a strategic gaffe, Lungu also chose a Westerner – 77-year-old Vice President Inonge Wina – as his running mate in 2016” Why haven’t why not talk about the GBV on GBM as a nagative. You are only spotting the bad in PF and not in UPND and you call yourself South African political analyst and doctoral candidate at the University of Warwick.
May be he has the similar membership number like hh’s you never know. Wina has more positives than that of gbv.
Is it true the “children will sleep?” (Abana balala?)
An article by UPSD supposedly written by Nichole Worthy-Beards. Political Advisor well analyzed!
good analysis, but too long article
Pf for life
4 votes for HH from the Copperbelt
Me, my wife, and our two sons
We would have voted for ECL but look at the behaviour of his thugs, intimidating people,throwing litter on the roads etc etc
The man has lost control of his cadres