By Peter Sinkamba
President Edgar Lungu should seriously get worried of the country’s race to the bottom bracket of poor countries.
Zambia was elevated from low income to lower-middle income status when the country’s GDP per capita sharply rose from $377 in 2002 to $1,369 in 2008. It was further reclassified in July, 2011 when GDP per capita rose to $1,644. In 2013, Zambia’s GDP per capita peaked to all time-high $1,869.
However, from 2014, the country went into rapid free-fall mode where GDP per capital has regressed in two years by 40% from $1,869 to $1,178 as at 2016.
At this rate of decay, it is projected to hit below $1,026 by 2019 and thereby creep back into the bandwagon of low-income bracket economies. According the World Bank Atlas method of calculation, a country which has per capita Gross National Income (GNI) less than US$1,006 per year, is a low-income economy.
As the Green Party, we think that this race to the bottom should really worry the President Lungu and his Minister of Finance. The duo should really up their game and start thinking outside the box.
Even the late President Levy Mwanawasa should be turning in his grave for wasted efforts and energy. The growing per capita income by $992 from $377 in 2002 to $1,369 in 2008 in a period of six years is a global record that we all must guard jealously.
Sadly, at this rate, we are surely headed for low income economy because numbers don’t lie. We really do not deserve this as a nation in the midst of plenty.
Peter Sinkamba
President
Green Party
With all variables and Cooper prices indicating upward mobility still we are sliding further and further into poverty. A case of gross mismanagement and lack of basic understanding of macro economics.
And some f00l wrote in a contribution to LT that the PF deserves a pat on the back and showed numbers …..despite the numbers showing to the contrary some misguided cadres were still in support of the authors hallucinatory story of numbers show that PF deserves a pat. Comedy at its worst
Mr Sinkamba is being selective in his arguments. He is a politician so it is understable. Yes numbers don’t lie but it is also about which numbers. In Kwacha terms GDP and GDP per capita has been growing at around 4%. The USDZMK exchange rate makes Zambia look poorer on a GDP per capita reading. A neutral analyst will look at GDP in kwacha terms as well as GDP using price parity which will be a more favourable indicator in Zambia’s case. It will show what you can do with a US Dollar in Zed compared to the USA. And on that reading Zed shouldn’t be doing that badly. In any case, Z is underachieving in economic and human development terms. Zero fresh ideas from our leaders. I think we need a ministry or ministries of innovation and human capital development? Very soon Zimbabwe will zoom…
….Very soon Zimbabwe will zoom past Z again. Ukani bantu tapapata, stop playing politics. Development is people, everything follows from there. It is people who build economies not the other way round. Our half baked citizens both leadership and “commoners” are not prepared for today’s global challenge. Devep people, people, people is what I say.
Maybe the only good thing is that in the lower income bracket, we are assured of more donors, with increased liquidity, the demand curve (IS CURVE) will shift the right again
Whoever you are, how can you even think like that! You remind me of our African leaders always borrowing! No shame at all! Even the land is slowly being sold off! Very soon even the Ministry of Lands will subcontract the land register to foreigners! And my mother used to say ”ichalo ubusuma tukashila ba kabwalala”! …. assured of more donors’! OMG.
Lungu must just go. He is useless.
Lungu only knows lawlessness ………after indebting Zambia to the tune of $17 billion it seems the worst is yet to come….from over looking and condoning violence to massive corruption like 42/42 , mr lungu has indeed failed.
point of correction it’s now actually $20 billion!
ya it is those indians who r sitting in dubhi and laughing at lungu indians r never good to do ant thing with them the is younus essa those r all empty poket thiver i kno them lok at his nephews drininf cars wort 2million usd each how r they paying the duty and since i kno them all 3 brothere r drug deilirs i was with dec every monthe they use to b in cells these indiand will buyt him alive just wait and c i told lungu last year this but he did not want to lisen to us now the ball is rooling
Write proper English using proper spellings.
All your comments above are valid. We have to Continue praying and always hoping for the best. Looking up to one man while you continue to blow your heads off with booze won’t work for Zed. Remember you are racing against other African countries. As I write this post am in Youonde Cameroon.
Spaka, jayjay, gen kanene please google and download the pdf, CAN ZAMBIA BORROW WITHOUT SORROW,,
World bank IMF give projection or zambia but also shows costs of road building and cites that in frontier economies,that is where cash leakage is most prevalent.
Also google sri lanka, the empty airport, details china investment in that country , then see the parallels with zambia,
It is frighteningly sad
Pf cadre read but you will still have myopuc vision, u dont even recognise workd bank and IMF are United Nations entities, you dont realise zambia is a MEMBER of the IMF, literacy and research is important
Mismanagement of the economy has led to people getting poorer !
For the first time in zambian economy the gap between the rich and the poor as become big it hurts to see how other people are struglering for 3 meals a day
Where do you take your minerals God has given you while Arabs oil is working for them.
He is not bothered as long he gets free beer and allowances for wondering about Africa and pocketing trolley loads of travel allowances . He once said he will be residing in Kitwe at the Kitwe state house .Ever since that week he was there ,he has never been back there again. The pots of money are in Lusaka for the rats .
Mr green party president it is important to give full details and therefore perspective when you give such alarming stats. GDP per capita is a function of GDP and the population. Could you indicate which factor is decreasing and/or increasing? The population will have to increase and the GDP remains static or falls concomitantly for the per capita figure to fall.
@Chama. I can not quite understand your argument. We all know that GDP per capita is a function of GDP and the population of the country. We all know that the population of Zambia has grown from 3 million in 1964 to 10.5 million in 2010 and currently estimated to be 16.5 million. So it is no brainer that the population of Zambia has CONSISTENTLY increased, and NEVER decreased.
A simple google search will show GDP has fluctuated. It increased to $14 billion in 2006 to $18 billion in 2008, and decreased to $15 billion in 2009. It then increased up to $28 billion by 2014 and thereafter decreasing to $19 billion in 2016. So in short GDP increases or decreases depending on the business opportunities or space created by the State through policy. This is what Sinkamba is trying to explain
Mr Sinkamba is being selective in his arguments. He is a politician so it is understable. Yes numbers don’t lie but it is also about which numbers. In Kwacha terms GDP and GDP per capita has been growing at around 4%. The USDZMK exchange rate makes Zambia look poorer on a GDP per capita reading. A neutral analyst will look at GDP in kwacha terms as well as GDP using price parity which will be a more favourable indicator in Zambia’s case. It will show what you can do with a US Dollar in Zed compared to the USA. And on that reading Zed shouldn’t be doing that badly. In any case, Z is underachieving in economic and human development terms. Zero fresh ideas from our leaders. I think we need a ministry or ministries of innovation and human capital development?
Sorry the money has been eaten up by ba koswe, you know what happens when the house is infested with rats, they eat anything in their way. He can only worry if he is awake, but now that he is always sleeping he doesn’t know what’s going on. Mwanawasa used to sleep at functions but that was his style of thinking, no wonder things got better only brought drifted backwards by PF.
The target for Sinkamba with his analysis is people like Lombe MA, Shameless and Spaka Lilo. Figures don’t lie yes that is true and we cannot dispute that. It is what is behind the numbers that explain the same numbers and that is where liars flourish. Politians will shamelessly blame govt on the downward trend when in fact they know the real issues.
Zambia like any other economy in Southern Africa and in the World has had a similar trend of numbers due to the following; and Sinkamba wont like people to remember this.
1. Base metal prices plummeted terribly plunging economies that are not divercified into fall in the economies’ strenths
2. Two or three seasons of below normal rainfall did a final blow to the economies
3. Further, HH took out his money into offshore accounts…