The latest Economist Intelligence Unit report on Zambia has predicted that the media reports about high level corruption in the PF will damage the party ahead of the 2021 elections.
But the EIU has retained its forecast of a victory for President Edgar Lungu in 2021 if he is allowed to stand -given strong incumbency powers.
The EUI however warns that this forecast does carry risks; for example, an opposition alliance would be a game-changer.
On its Election Watch, the EIU said assuming Mr Lungu is deemed eligible to stand again, his control over the party machinery and the support of most of the Central Committee, as well as a tightening grip on the media and state institutions, should see him secure the PF nomination.
It predicts that influential and usually old guard rivals will also be expelled or opt to leave.
“But this will come at a cost; there is deep-seated public concern about corruption—for good reason—and ministers that have left office so far have chosen to expose malpractice on their way out. Citing graft is a means by which ambitious politicians leaving government can begin afresh, in opposition, with a powerful campaigning message at their disposal. As the PF shake-up continues there will probably be similar allegations, and the associated bad press would be damaging for the PF,” it forecasts.
“The same applies to an impeachment motion against Mr Lungu for gross mismanagement currently being brought forward by the United Party for National Development (UPND), Zambia’s largest opposition party; the motion is destined to fail, but will be an embarrassment to the president. Standing to gain from all this is the UPND, the National Democratic Congress—founded by an ex PF minister expelled by Mr Lungu in mid2017—which is already making inroads into the ruling party’s Copperbelt heartland on an anti-corruption platform, and potentially the newer Socialist Party.”
It observes that the UPND is the most viable contender for the presidency, but has become relatively directionless since fierce government crackdowns on its leadership in 2017.
The EIU predicted that Zambia will face substantial threats to political stability in 2018-22 much of this stems from what is for Zambia an unusual degree of social division and political intolerance under the presidency of President Lungu.
“Given the widespread perception among the opposition that corruption is worsening, job opportunities are too few and Zambia is descending into authoritarianism, pent-up frustration could spark serious turbulence. For example, unrest is likely to break out when the Constitutional Court delivers its verdict on whether Mr. Lungu is eligible to stand for another term in the 2021 election; the date for the verdict has not been given. If another term is deemed unconstitutional, Mr Lungu has himself publicly warned the Constitutional Court of chaos, but as the president appoints its judges, such a verdict is unlikely. Even so, clear politicisation of the judicial process also means that a ruling deeming him eligible to stand again is likely to be perceived as tainted by the opposition.”
It added, “Any related unrest is likely to be in the form of opposition protests, potentially involving low-level violence. The run-up and execution of the 2021 election will be another volatile period, during which the government will look to aggressively narrow the political space. Indeed, any time Mr Lungu feels his position is vulnerable, there are likely to be crackdowns, which in turn risk building resentment. If disorder becomes widespread, as is likely, extra security powers could come into force, as they did for three months in 2017. On the one hand, this would act as a mechanism for bolstering overall stability; on the other, it would reinforce perceptions that Zambia is staggering towards autocracy and exacerbate underlying social tensions.”
It said, “Besides toxic relations with the opposition, the government will continue to be split between a conservative (“old guard”) faction that founded the ruling Patriotic Front (PF), which has long been sceptical of the president, and loyalists of Mr Lungu. Ministers from the old guard have already resigned or been purged, but this restructure lost direction when the finance minister, Felix Mutati, was demoted in an apparent concession to this faction, which has long wanted him out of cabinet. Ultimately, Mr Lungu’s control over the party is based more on short-term manoeuvring than clear strategy (other than his overarching goal of securing the PF’s presidential nomination at a party congress in 2020). “
It added that although open rivals for the party’s presidential nomination are still likely to be purged, the process will be erratic and will leave the government unstable and policy implementation unpredictable.
“Corruption tag” or Institutionalized Corruption Reality”
There is allegation to this Government – nothing is proved.
Allegations shouldn’t term someone guilty.
PF will win in 2021 and rightfully so.
To insinuate anything but – is ignorance of the highest kind.
I have a PhD.
Thanks
BB2014,2016
As much as corruption is a vice we Zambians abhors and implore ba Chagwa and the ruling party to urgently introspect for a serious self institutional corrections, the sensational campaign of allegations and smear by the now free fake media have no capacity to change the current political trajectory or fortunes of Chagwa in 2021. Unless PF deafeningly ignore the lamentations of Zambians at large.
Suffice to say, retirement of PF will be a result of critical mass build-up of an army of hopeless common man, peasants, and apolitical intellectuals tired of Zambia’s quagmire. Politicians ought to know that what is obtaining in Zambia and most African nations is certainly a recipe for a socialist revolution. Chagwa still has a chance.
HUNGER / NZALA / NJALA / KAPOWE / TALA will make Zambians vote wisely. The economy has collapsed, just hanging on a thin thread of CHINESE LOANS. As D-Day approaches (Euro-Bond maturity), the damage caused by 10 years of RB & PF economic mismanagement & OPEN THEFT will be laid bare.
The same EIU that predicted Rupiah Banda would win as he enjoyed massive rural support in 2011.
These people thrive where is war. They supply guns and ammunition to continue their companies running. How do you come up with an analysis of instability in a country that has enjoyed peace for more than 52years? We have had so many elections and the transition has been next to none. Now you come up with such an analysis. Honestly what is your motive.
Zambians love music and JK is busy composing one for 2021. Rain or no rain, corruption or no corruption PF will win. That is they will rig because they can not afford to lose and get prosecuted. If truly they will lose ECL would never be sounding drums to stand in 2021. He knows he will be declared winner anyway.
PF can only lose it if the people of Zambia decide that enough is enough…as for the opposition UPND they have a very weak and outdated media strategy, they need to freshen it up with young savvy minds…given what’s happened in the past week in regards to PF corruption they should have been on top of it.
NDC they still have a long way to go. I watched a live Facebook stream of BUFFOON CK with the whole NDC team..they didn’t have a schedule/agenda of what to say as they kept passing him pieces of paper or pausing. If you want to run for office you have to show the people that you are organised
They might only win because the opposition is equally corrupt so there will be no choice
ECL won’t leave by the ballot. Remember this. He will make sure there’s enough confusion in the country before he goes into exile.
It’s up to us to decide how our country should be.
We have told you….lungu can not win any free and fair election. Never.
Violence , intimidation and rigging are his tools.
GBM last week in Chilanga: ” …we must fight them panga for panga!!!”
Rigging?? hmmm, when ECZ allows party agents in every polling station, how is rigging done?? Recent local by-elections certainly show your rhetoric is not working. You have called Lungu all sorts of pathetic names but Zambians still voted for PF.
How is rigging done ? Ask chavuma what he was doing in the ECZ server rooms….
What was proven about Chavula??? Nothing!!! Look, if a constituency has 5 polling stations and upnd place 10 people in those stations, they will witness the opening and counting of ballots and each group will take note of the totals. They will meet as a party and add up the totals for the constituency and compare with what Mulungushi will announce. Where’s the rigging hapoening???
If there was no rigging and lungu was confident , lungu should have even forced UPND and the courts to see their petition so as to unite the country but instead lungu blocked it on technicalities…..
as they say if an accused rapist refuses a DNA test , he fears the truth…..
…so according to you, Lungu controls the courts??? You are just an empty tin that makes a lot of useless noise. Do you even understand how the government works??? Proper U5!!!
Yes , lungu has corrupted the upper judiciary……and you are just a corrupt rat who sees nothing wrong with Zambia spending $1 million on scania painted red….
More doomsday predictions from the same sources that have predicted the fall of PF time and time again. The RSA govt. just rejected fugitive Pilato’s asylum, the UN rebuffed kainde’s allegations against its local head, Janet Rogan, its surely evident this smeer campaign against PF using these international characters is failing and expiring. Because these corruption allegations have failed to be proven, people are bored with the same allegations.
I think the EIU correctly predicted a narrow win for PF in 2016. Before you blindly seek to discredit sources, good is to know what you are talking about yourself.
…as advised by Cambridge Analytica???
No. As per their own research. The point is that jumping up and down about things you want to be true without thought is rarely a way to success.
If you wish to disagree with the EIU’s analysis, why not take on their actual points instead?
In denial; Who will ever trust ECZ after the Kalulushi theft of HH’s votes, mind you 1200 is a lot for a small city.
A video in which UPND Kalulushi Candidate Evaristo Mwalilino’s driver is revealing how HH and GBM’s Kalulushi Constituency votes where concealed has gone viral after it was aired on Prime TV.
In the video, Wanna Chiyanga is confessing that his boss Mwalilino was given K21000, K360 000 for 21,966 votes and dropping the election petition respectively.
He disclosed that Rupiah Banda, Kapamba Mulenga and axed PF Deputy Chairperson for Elections Kelvin Fube Bwalya(KBF) and Mwalilino were heavily involved in the scheme of things.
EIU can go to hell for all I care. Their analyses are usually biased and not based on what the truth on the ground is. If they were genuine they would see that the corruption nonsense is not going anywhere because it lacks facts. You think Zambians can’t see through the lies of upnd?? Then to have an international organisation that can’t even get facts on the ground and call it credible?? Total rubbish!!!
@RiggingPF: ECZ has run elections from 2006 and has overseen change of presidents since, both incumbent and opposition. upnd lose and it’s not cerdible?? When 9,950 tongas voted for upnd against 3 for the party 3 weeks ago, the ECZ is ok. When the rest of the country vote for PF, its rigged!! Get a life…
It worries me to our minds being more focused on elections and not delivering.
This EIU is purely UPND, they are the only people who only talks about elections and not what they are doing for the people.
We all know EL is going beyond 2021 as president of zambia while HH will also continue in same capacity except for a losing party.
ECL going beyond 2021. Eish, its like Burundi reloaded.
So is underfive h.h going to boycott elections in 2021? Uuum tricky one that, because by the next one 2026 h.h will be an 96 year old underfive, now that is not the correct age to assume presidency is it? Or upnd will replace him? Or he will contest in 2021 regardless and then claim rigging again? The same arguments above come into play again, age etc.
As for opposition uniting forces, which opposition? Every one of them has similar agenda to become president, certainly h.h, Kambwili , Kalaba, and that media f.ool callung itself socialist who will get one vote if he is lucky enough.
These corruption allegations by opposition simply reflect a burning envy and ambition to be the ones enjoying the corruption fruits. No serious alternative politicians at the moment except Green Peter…
No opposition can win in Zambia in the state they are now except in Southern Village Country where Halitumpa Hichipuba HH comes from.
Cont….
These corruption allegations by opposition simply reflect a burning envy and ambition to be the ones enjoying the corruption fruits. No serious alternative politicians at the moment except Green Peter Sinkamba.
“… burning envy …” ? That is the reason why PF bought 42 red painted wheelbarrows for 42 million USD?
@Zambian Citizen; even me i would fight panga for panga; Spaka like lilo is right; Lungu can only win using his trade tools of violence…; but it will be hard for him this time;
Yeah, MAPATIZIA FORMULA was coined way before ECL/PF was even considered serious opposition. At the time UPND was already running battles/violence with MMD. So UPND qualifies as a “PROFESSIONAL HOOLIGAN PARTY.” They have far more experience at this than ECL. OWN IT!!!!
As EIU correctly observes, underfive h.h is currently durectionless and disorientated, just look at him in Lafarge Country with Chamene.
UPND never coined the impeachment motion you dim wits.That’s Kambwili’s dream.You like going round the anthill all the time-upnd this hh that. Shame.You are also practising wako no wako and umodzi kumawa like Chulu and KK.Sad.
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Am still waiting for an explanation how govt bought 42 fire tenders at 42 million kwacha
The PF rats above are saying the corruption allegations are nothing but a ploy ……none the less they are allegations that the corrupt theives in PF fail to deny……never in the history of Zambia have there been so much debt, tribal divisions, corruption , political violence and intimidation as of now when lungu is president…..
The most memorable corruption allegation was when pf were caught moving mukula logs in the dead of night using all foringe transporters being tailed by state house cars……when they were caught they now told us the monies raised….they did not say how much ….was used to prop up kawambwa tea….classic….brazen stealing where they do not provide any information of monies the mukula sold for….
Kambwili is facing corruption charges in court of law while ECL is being tried in the court of social media. All those rants on corruption must be brought before courts and rest your matters than boring us with Un substantiated issues.
ECL was already CONVICTED by the Court of Law on his own plea of “Guilty”.
For your info, he is CONVICTED EMBEZZLER.
Try to remember that instead of ignoring his lack of basic honesty.
What an 1.d.i.ot!!! How can a convicted person qualify for public office??? Facts, walikolwa ne fisushi fya ng’ombe???
Citizen…..you are a coward and a lier , tell us why lungu was debarred by LAZ ?
my bet is you will will won’t tell us and just disappear for now….
The report says upend had become direction less. end of quote
What does it mean
It means…..
“…unusual degree of social division and political intolerance under the presidency of President Lungu…”
USA government has applied sanctions against several countries for human rights abuses and corruption, but Zambia is not among these. Spaka please kindly explain why USA has missed out Zambia? Or is it that Edgar he’s so good at corruption that he’s managed to buy off Mr Trump?
Ndanji
Which countries are those , Iran and N Korea and Russia ?
You don’t understand current geopolitic affairs. Those condemnations have nothing to do with human rights. If they were Saudi Arabia , isreal will be high on the list…
How many NGOs do we have in this country?
By the time Zambia will really start feeling the pinch of this external debt burden after 2021 someone will be enjoying an ice-cold beer in his eSwatini mansion. We are really in trouble
Only imberciles, lunatics and *****s can vote for these pathetic fools.
#17:chief bootlicker, the tragedy with upnd chaps is that you dont condemn things because they are wrong , but because they wish they were the ones doung enjoying corruption. If it was not for that singukar evil in upnd, h.h underfive would be oresident in 2021 or even earlier. But as it is h.h is no option so he shall never be president in my life time, which will be a few terms from n9w unless you count a term as six months.
I have never been a supporter of UPND and never will. But I support upright leaders like the late Mwanawasa.From the time PF came into power poverty is even worse than before. I miss the MMD.We were better off
Upnd cadre you should just become full time upnd. Your postings are never without HH in them. You seem to know more about HH than ECL, why not go with someone you know well than the stranger ECL u barely know. You know and can explain the source of his riches but u know nothing of ECL’s ability to get rich in such a short time
“Corruption Tag” is a code for “Non-Tonga!” It is not that it means what it says! UPND is a tribal gathering! Watch the contributors on this blog! Someone said, “UPND is for Tongas! Sakwiba you cannot be president because you are not Tonga!” Now, think it over! These words were being spoken to a Lozi who is cousin or essentially from the same bloc of the “Tongas” and they didn’t think he could be president of UPND! Just think of GBM, the decoration!
GBM indeed a decoration. He’s only providing ornamental value without realising. Garamukani GBM! !!
@Sharon…you spew a lot of hate on here! Gosh girl…what are you teaching your kids if at all you have any?
Childish is corrupt!
The authors are Hichilema’s cadres trying to campaign for him! They would like to create chaos in peaceful Zambia. It will never happen! Sorry! Hichilema will never rule Zambia! Let him try Congo DR.
This institution talks as though corruption is new in Zambia. If UPND hated corruption they would not welcome corrupt chaps like their Running Mate. If they disliked violence they could not welcome chaps like their advisor to HH William Banda.
Rigging is not there in Zambia. The process is so transparent and each party is free to conduct their own PVT. The real rigging in elections are practiced in Southern Province. Next time PF should deploy non Tonga observers in poling stations and understand what takes place there.
Tribalism in UPND is real. GBM will never take over UPND even if HH stepped down.