By: Anthony Bwalya – UPND Member
A few days ago, I woke up to the bad news, that the yield on Zambia’s $750 million Euro Bond due in the year 2022, has exponentially spiked, from an initial 5.75% to a staggering 22.3%.
What this means is that currently, Zambians, will have to find an extra $200 million over and above the initial cost of this loan in order to free ourselves from the shackles of this modern day slave situation.
In fact, all signs and projections, are pointing to a further slippery slide in the yields in respect of the Eurobond as Zambia’s political and economic profile are both expected to take a turn for the worst as we head towards the election of our lifetime in 2021.
The foregoing analysis is and has been confirmed by the recently made public report into voting patterns, with most current intimations pointing to a heightened illegal and arbitrary abuse of institutional resources, power and authority by the Patriotic Front (PF); underpinned by systematic deterioration of the rule of law, as well as suppressing of the civic and democratic space to cast a veil on public accountability.
And with the PF already having signalled another pipeline $2.3bn Chinese loan, fronted as project money when all signs point to a very substantial portion of this debt money lined up to beef up to go towards their 2021 campaign financing, it is not hard to explain why both market and investor confidence is running dry; and consequently heightening the negative perception around our country’s ability to pay back the debt money we all.
By the time we get to 2021, and by the time clock strikes the year 2022, a Eurobond facility which should have cost us less than $50 million to acquire will easily be costing us close to $350 million above the initial cost.
But why should and must Zambians reward this blatant criminality by the PF? Why should future generations of citizens be punished just for being born Zambian? Why should our children give up opportunities for learning, health and employment just to be able to feed the PF’s appetite for criminality and an insentiable craze to consume beyond what our economy can give in this our lifetime? And why should our generation allow this careless government get away with ransacking the collective future prospects of a whole nation?
Today, we are witnessing a former Presidential Aide, Amos Chanda, being indicted on grand money laundering charges by the Anti Corruption Commission. Amos used to work from President Edgar Lungu’s own political bedroom. Whatever Amos used to do, the Presidency owed the nation a duty of care to ensure that Amos’ own appetite for quick money was as far away from the Presidency and the PRESIDENT while he served in a public position. Now we know, that Amos was sacrificed to “sanitize” the PRESIDENT and the Presidency because it was becoming too obvious that Amos was only a small part of a wider ring of institutional criminal behavior.
In fact, the arrest of Amos is part of a carefully put together process meant to “clean him up”, and by association, “absorb” the appointing authority. A conviction for Amos Chanda would by default be a conviction for PRESIDENT Edgar Lungu and the entire Presidency. They will not let that happen.
Yet, this one thing I know: that all ruling political parties, before they fall from grace, reach the very top of organizational ineptitude, and are arrogant about it. And this is PF today, unrepentant about the misery they have caused all of us. Despite the economic woes, the poverty, the joblessness, the unprecedented corruption, broken business environment, high cost of fuel, a currency buckling under pressure, high cost of living – please don’t mention mealie meal……the PF are still boasting that they are still popular and remain the party of choice for Zambians and that no matter what happens, the PF can do no wrong and that Zambians will still vote for them and keep them in power in 2021.
But if Zambians will go to sleep and hop into bed with the devil incarnet called Patriotic Front in 2021, and give the PF the lattitude to enjoy the last laugh, the joke of a lifetime will be on all of us and our children and theirs will be glad to piss on our graves for having betrayed them to a brutal, incompetent, selfserving regime.
And as for me and my family, we will not be voting for the PF in 2021.
PF is still winning come 2021,it’s still our choice.
No magic can come and change what the country is going through overnight.
You are also thieves,you just want to come and steal.
The devil you know is better than the angel you don’t know.
PF has worked and will are voting for them come 2021.
Anythony Bwalya, the people you are supporting are not your freinds. Ask Gbm, Dr. Canicious Band, Saki etc. They like using people and discard them if they do not get their expectation. I hope you are using a pseudonym and that you are one of them.
Miyoba you are Either blind to reality or you lack the power of reason. Whichever way, I can’t believe you just support PF for whatever reason other than the above. Things are bad mwana. Don’t lie to yourself.
No alternative so PF rolls on.
It seems they are giving you cold chills down your naive spines.
Voting tribal and tribadistic upndead in Power will be the worste crime against posterity.
#Mobilisationagainstthedeadparty
You are a disgrace. With people like you around, Zambia is really doomed.
I admire PF. They look more organised and I think they will win surely in 2021.
I will give them my vote.
Facts and figures mishandling.
Facts and figures heavily misrepresented, twisted, screwed and this highly politically charged watermeloned Under4 goon doesn’t seem to quit the deads alarmist campaign.
If you read this propagandist hogwash, damn it, it feels like you are reading a book from the pits of hell. Run! Run! Heaven is falling chicken little mantra.
How much is mealie meal?
What about load shedding, has it stopped or now it’s a normal thing in this 21st Century to have perpetual & non availability of power?
How is the economy performing today?
The Skeleton Key
~206~
Better the devil you know…than why did you vote sata and pf in 2011. If you had followed your principal then you should have voted mmd and we wouldn’t have been in this problems now. I didn’t vote for sata nor did I fall for his lies. I didn’t even listen to the lies membe was writing in his post newspaper trying to paint sata as the country’s saviour as I had eyes and could see but because of i**ot voters like you i am also suffering. The worst part is you are so dull that you can’t learn from your mistakes, at least not for yourself but for your children.
@ Miyoba @ 1
When you say “You are ALSO thieves..”, are you agreeing that PF are thieves?
The writer is full. Whatever becomes the yield, it does not change anything on account of amount to be paid back. Very full moron
@the devil you know….. that won’t work my friend. we also know lesser devils so PF Zwaaaa!
Supporting a TRIBAL H-ORGANIZATION in Zambia is Crime HAGAINST HUMANITY! Take him to the MUSEUM!
Kkkkkk bitter party …very soon loadsheding ll be a thing of the past come next year.am sure your supreme god u5 leader is not happy about the rains.ECL na futi 2021……akalila uyo chikonko mwikate uyo….
You are the greatest disgrace, Zambia is doomed if we allow people like you to start telling lies.Don’t take Zambians for granted, your party has failed to tell us Zambians your association with the ALN and you come here ponono.We have seen what PF has done,and obviously Zambians have no reason to change Government.If you think you will be given chance to come and steal naimwe,mwaloba ilyabola.Mind you Zambia is a Christian nation and people who associate with ALN are no where near the Governmence.
God is watching,he is not asleep.Às long as God doesn’t allow ALN values,nishi pafita # Kupitilila futi nafuti
Hahahahaha!
I heard that story FIVE YEARS AGO! PF promised no LOAD SHEDDING in the next year.
And what do we have now? More LOAD SHEDDING than EVER BEFORE!
UNDER FIVE will get fits HAGAIN! He will get high blood pressure in 2021! Wait and see!
You told us in your last write up that your principal HH will be given US$25 billion by his friends in a five year period? Does this money include reparations for the people that suffered and died from lead poisoning in Kabwe due to mining activities of a company led by the late President of UPND? Lest people forget; UPND was created to handover Zambia’s mining assets for cheap to foreign entities – that mission hasn’t changed.
Ntaulu!You must be someone who is just confined to Zambia, things might be bad yes.But who told you that your united party for destruction will come and make things right overnight,what magic will your small god do to make things write?If people from outside our happy with Zambia’s transformation,and you a Zambian can’t see.
We need to change our mindset for prosperity,not just hate nooooooooo.
I and my family are voting for PF in 2021 as we have always done since 2006. Let that stick in your mind. I hope this time around your god will retire and be thrown in the dustbin
keep dreaming that pf will win 2021.
The writing is on the wall in plain sight and in fat letters. I don’t think they are dreaming. I will give give them a vote this time.
Dear colleagues. Regardless of who any one of you and your families will vote for, can anyone please address the nation on what we are doing or the plans in place to pay this debt in 2022? That will be $750m plus the 22% interest? By the way that is on and above what we have been paying annually. The Kwacha cover as at today is 14.07 to one USD.
That is what I would be interested to hear. Will it in the next year’s budget? Will taxes go up in order to raise this? Will we borrow again somewhere in order to pay it or will we sell sell it to others at much higher interest? Any blogger here with knowledge about the matter to educate us please? Then you can go back to whoever you would vote for.
Although i have withdrawn my support,the write up is merely a political computational sensational write up and it has missed the sovereign borrowing outlooks and behavior of investors in the Sovereign bonds
its clearly a miss reading it critically
Anthony Bwalya, Aspiring UPND Member of Parliament, just a few additions and corrections to your article:
1. “Voting trible UPND into Power will be crime against Future Generations”.
2. How will trible HH achieve all those goodies that he is going found promising the people of Zambia if the Euro bonds and Debt situation deteriorate that much before 2021? Please tell us that HH is a bowl of magic out, or a hat trickster.
3. Whom you and your family vote or not vote for is your human right guaranteed by the Constitution.
4. However, thank you very much for not mentioning UPND, HH, in your article, its breath of fresh air, 10 points up against Sunday Chanda the other media idoit.
Too much idleness pa Zed is what will perpetuate PF inflicted misery on our poor citizens! If Zambians know what is best for them, 2021 will tell. PF governance so far is close to criminality!
The levels of impunity for Lawlessness and corruption in those that govern us should be the worry of every sane citizen! Even PF cadres are beginning to wake up to the reality of greed in their leaders whom they have accused of eating alone! PF’s worry should not be HH and UPND! Let them ask the ordinary citizen on the ground how they feel about the PF economy! That is what will determine 2021! PF should be reminded why RB wept! It was the citizens he had mistaken for the opposition! Let’s cross the bridge when we get there!
How much is mealie meal?
What about load shedding, has it stopped or now it’s a normal thing in this 21st Century to have perpetual & non availability of power?
How is the economy performing today?
The Skeleton Key
~206~
Bringing UPND into power will be crime against humanity in Zambia
Zambia cannot H-allow to commit a Crime H-AGAINST HUMANITY by bringing in a tribal h-organisation and privatisation thief to be president! He can put the whole Zambia on his back and run to PANAMA!
I doubt if these PF cadres above even understands what are Eurobonds whether they understand what is Zambia’s economic profile at the moment there are so dull these PF cadres so they can even believe in a rotten government no hope if PF wins 2021 you will be eating amasuku for breakfast as for me and my family we will not vote for PF I need a bright future for my kids I cannot vote for people who can even steal animals and trees no.
Sichalwe
That is the self created danger that the president has created,imagine these are the kind of people that surround him,can they even rig?Even stealing intelligently they have failed.Imagine a f00l building 48 houses,how can he even run them?When you look at their investments none of them has created jobs from the stolen loot.You cannever hear these g00ns having created a factory or a serious commercial farm,it is only trucks,car hire,houses typical investments for clueless thieves..
What drive elevated debt levels is Sluggish Growth and what no 9 there has said is also true The Zambian euro bonds have so far performed well but more needs to be done especially to large investor exposure The write needs to see the unwinding happens in the economies and see why the yield have moved like that but yet so attractive to many investors It not like turkey whose yields are tilted like that for Long-term We will growth the economy and repay the euros like kenya and South Africa has done looking at the firm policies and plans by Gov
Okay Twaufwa rescinded will support them
I and my family will vote for PF in 2021.No amount of propaganda by up and down will mislead me.
Voting for pf is like going back to your black zambian ex girlfriend who was a leach and dishonest gold digger, when you have a beautiful successful whlte wlfe like mine. It just doesn’t make sense x only thieves and corrupt rats and monkeys will vote pf
As am waiting for a person with NATIONAL CHARACTER AND LEADERSHIP qualities I will still vote for PF 2021.
UPND is too much into ethnicity I mean I don’t like their media contributions to radio stations,social media etc.
More worse UPND members of parliament are direct on their debates about the National Agenda that they have ethnic syndromes.
To prove my point,2016 General elections in Namwala non tongas were beaten,houses were burnt and they were evicted from trading posts. The government had to evacuate them to their original places because of what they term tribal cleansing.
These people can bring war to this country. Just their language makes me freeze. Imagine the way they behave in opposition with no tolerance what more in power hmmmmmm. Can’t never ni forward chabe na HEECL
Let me address some point on Euro Bonds and contribute for you to see (see Bloomberg and
Barclays capital) Yields have moved some basis points to reflect the heightened risks in spreads between the 30 yrs. US Bonds We will need simply manage the repayment risk and restructure the majority owners of the bonds and manage the clause effectively Tunisia’s yields have been worse at more than 5.63% (more expensive) but Good commentary and sentiments in south African economy have made it easier to raise the 30 yrs. Bond at a coupon of 5.75% this year 2019 better than 6.3% coupon in 2018 for similar with concerns over power that resulted in downgrades of the economy There is still…
interests in emerging markets bond and restructure and Zambia’s is still marketable so The argentine effect ,that affected 30 yr bonds mainly ,on the Bond markets(emerging) as reflected in increased spreads of yields (Barclays) has somehow crystallised and yields are poised to perform favourably also as the China Us trade (UNTAD) is resolved because our economy depends on exports of copper and its products and those FX realised There will be no contagion effect to erode the economic strides and gains as it where for any investor to worry The cost of Euro bonds (durations) have been the same to say this year 2019(to say it literally) with average yields marginally at 6.1% from 7.1 %…
since early this year (a fall of 150% basis points) The acceptable yield that reflects the risks investors will be compensated from by taking their money into African bonds is 4% to 4.9% and Zambia is within that blanket reflecting the yields in the US Treasuries You should also see why those negative bonds yields in the EU has made Zambia’s and others African countries bonds attractive for reinvestments We need to see the real options and opportunities presented in our “performing attractive bonds to perform to closure of those indentures ” I know because of these sentiments and such sometimes our bonds and yields have been made to performed badly especially given at the 70 US…
cents per dollar(somehow expensive okay) , investors and markets often will fail to see the real options and trade in acceptable spreads that reflects real sentiments and risks
So if you see 2015 to 2017-2019 you will see some similarities in our economic performance and reasons for the debt outlook and why the infrastructure developments was key and if the dividends are made ,the Zambian economy and its marketable securities will be one of the most invest able grade ever and it should be the economic policies of PF and any other following this fiscal pathway and not in this article presented here having read and critically analysed Zambians fiscal outlook for long-term
Yankubuyo party (upnd)cant form government.. in 2021
Yes, it will be Socialist government in 2021 headed by veteran journalist Dr. M’membe. All those who stole and are the cause of abject poverty of 90% of Zambians will either run away or made to pay for their sons. No mercy on ZPA manipulators, shortchanging Music o tunya sale to Sun International, mines to Indians and scrap traders Zimbabwean.
HAZALUZA HAGAIN!
In-fact there has been renewed optimistic since last year from Investors with long-positions in Zambians Bonds This year and into the foreseeable future from last year 2018 Most investors in Zambian securities and Bonds were worried of default IMF situation etc but the positions and renewed confidence and interest now means yield will perform better from those 998% basis points increase reflecting those heightened risks then to better We simply need just to manage the majority investors in NN Investment Partners Zambian Bonds and all is not like lost and capsized
I like Chanda also everlyn
That’s why your reasoning is limited,so who has brought loadshedding,who has hiked the meali meal?You need to go back to school.
Nature is nature,not even your freemason can do magic to challenge nature.Our economy is based on Agriculture,there was drought and farmers didn’t harvest,and how do you think the economy can boom?A farmer in Lundazi has to harvest enough for consumption and selling in order to add to the economic basket,but farmers only harvest a little for consumption,those who were lucky,and those who were not lucky,had nothing.
This is simple arithmetic,it doesn’t need rocket science for understanding.Imagine there was enough rains last year,would we have load shedding, would meali meal prices been where it is today?The simple answer is NO!
Unless you Keep on cheating…
As painful as the debate goes the truth is that ordinary Zambians are suffering. People who support any politician should question their integrity and vote according the leadership qualities one possesses. Voting on either tribal or affiliation is totally wrong. I was in the diaspora for the past 20 years life was great because I was comfortable. I came back for the love of my mother land to implement what I acquired over the years but believe not we need to wake up and build our country for our children . We haven’t had unrest or civil war, we are peaceful but sinking deeper, into an undeveloped country to be precise third world indeed. So avoid insulting one another and give constructive criticism. Zambian politics never changes over time it’s shall minded people who have nothing to…
Thanks Jay. It is time to think out of the box containing PF and UPND. Why cannot we have somebody other than these two party’s candidates? Zambia is bigger than these two parties and their presidential candidates. Why cannot it be Kalaba?
Why not Fred M’membe?
Why not a student leader, fresh from University, or a professor, or a doctor or a military man?
Shiiii…
We know about generation politics of the economy and surely we cannot invest in our children if not investing now in present value Out child “GDP per future generation will be higher than ours “These issues of debt and overhangs are structural management economic issues that can be managed to ensure Zambia and future generations continue to enjoy quality of life and wealthy not the same old stories on campaigns on basic economic infrastructure Drainage roads schools etc hospitals etc
Any well meaning Zambians will be promoting the country to ensure that Yields on our GRZ $ 1 Billion Bonds that matures in 2024 drop further as seen earlier this year in 2019 by more than 260 basis to ensure further narrowing of Zambia’s bonds spreads over U.S. Treasuries to ensure either reduction in costs and financing costs
rather refinancing or restructuring those Bond maturing So generation effect longevity etc etc must be put into proper investments context
PF only care about their pockets.
With no concern about people’s welfare they think they can only focus on 2021.
If PF place their energies on HH, and not tending to the cries of the people, they will remain an opposition party in waiting.
For now UPND’s strategy to keep PF focused on HH and away from the issues seems to be working for them.
Anthony Bwalya,please tell your tribal HH that I,my family,close friends and 99.99% of church-mates will vote for PF in 2021 as we have been doing since 2006!!!We’re enjoying driving on tarred roads,seeing new schools,clinics,hospitals,districts,etc and these are the things(development) we vote for and not TRIBE as UPND cadres do!!!COME RAIN,COME SUNSHINE-WE SHALL VOTE FOR PF AND WITNESS HH LOSING FOR A RECORD 6TH TIME WHICH WILL BE HIS LAST ATTEMPT!!Then in 2026,we will try to vote for Harry Kalaba, Kambwili or Garry Nkombo!!HH IS NEVER AN OPTION FOR MOST OF US IN 6.5 PROVINCES!!
I agree with you.
HaBlinded by HaTRIBES and HaHAtred! HAZALUZA HAGAIN!
Just wait and see how your UPND candidates will be hummered on 5th December,2019 during by elections doted in PF strongholds of Luapula,Northern,Copperbelt,etc.The big one will be in Milenge district-Luapula!!!This is a PF’s bedroom(Luapula)!!!UPND should not give any excuse since they have teamed up with de-registered NDC in all these by elections-a strategy which the opposition intends to use in 2021.The opposition must prove on 5th Dec.that by teaming up,PF should be defeated!!!But,some of us know too well that during the recent by election in Kitwe at ward level,votes for both UPND & NDC were fewer than those for PF who won the Lubwa ward in Kitwe recently!!COME 2021 NI PF NAFUTI NAFUTI!!
On that Thursday of August 2021,am waking up as early as 02 to go vote out this damn useless PF party into everlasting non existent with its bunch of thieves with no vision no shame the harsh times they have put on the majority Zambians
Will your singletone vote be able to circumvent the growing popularity of the Patriots?
As we celebrate life, that remains to be seen.
Am surprised with people who say upnd is a tribalistic party I have never heard upnd condemning other tribes like what PF did on radio lutanda in kasama so which party has tribalism PF or Upnd I think pf is tribal there are so free to talk about tribalism wako ni wako so let’s be real.
HaSichalwe because you HaBlind & HaDeaf so you cannot tell because blindness and deafness is HA-DISEASE!!
It is only a fool who will vote for PF. Unless you are not feeling the cost of buying fuel at K16 PER LITRE.Unless you are not feeling the pain of buying meali meal at K165 PER BAG.Unless you are not feeling the nagging issue of LOAD SHEDDING. Imbiciles will cast a vote for a dead thing(PF)
One thing we should know is that government is you and that it takes you to think big and come up with developmental projects which will supplement government efforts. Replacing President Edgar Lungu with another person will not be the best solution, the solution is you , what have you done which will tell a story of your legacy. There is need for us to work hard so that we contribute towards government efforts. We need to change our mind set. Our generation is to much of dependance and folding arms, in the early 80s people use to work hard they use to remember there villages and farm, no much time to watch a movie, and government then UNIP was tough and that even keeping a dog at home we use to pay revenue for it but now it is free, trade freely and you can purchase a property and no…
Loans exist in context. To develop, there is need for loans. What matters really how wisely the loans are utilized. Therefore, apprehend the lawbreaker, not the law abiding individual. Until proven guilty, even AC former press secretary is also innocent.
Allow me to say this…HH will definitely win the upcoming elections. Even without considering the factualness of the status quo, the likes and dislikes on comments can alone say something. I have noted, with much concern that people favour the HH side and have their backs turned agaist the rulling government. Anyone who wants to either cement or follow this argument can go back and evaluate the comments, paying attention to the likes and dislikes. Whatever the case, HH will win the 2021 elections. The rulling government might want to rig the elections just like yester-time’s hearsays but HH will grab the ballot box. If you know you know. Some people like opposing too much while in their deep down they know the truth very well and even awaits for Change. Atulindile 2021 mubone…