By Peter Sinkamba- President, The Greens
Voting and voter turn-out are mainly influenced by five fundamental psychological motives which include selfishness, duty, altruism, belonging, and social approval. These motives have precedents in the literature, and have extensively evaluated.
We have compiled a desk review based on the above motives to evaluate which one of the two candidates—President Edgar Lungu (ECL) for PF and UPND Candidate Hakainde Hichilema (HH)—is likely to win the elections on 12 August 2021. Sources of data were mainly Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ) databases, as well as mainstream and social media platforms, focusing on reactions to issues connected to or incidental to the two leaders, as discussed below. The period of interest was from January to May 2021.
From literature surveyed, it is well established that altruism and duty are the most important reported motives for turnout and voting, accounting for more than 60% of the allocations, while selfish motives account for only about 15%. It is also empirically established that turnout behaviour responds positively to the motives of duty, altruism, and belonging, but it is dampened by the motive of selfishness. It is also well-known from literature that turning out to vote emerges as an activity that is largely shaped by an individual’s social concerns and values, in other words,social approval.
By social approval in this context, we mean positive appraisal and acceptance of a presidential candidate by political party members, and the general public, focusing on behaviour, traits, attributes, or the like, of that candidate. This tenet manifests in inform of compliments, praise, statements of approbation, and so on. We consider social disapproval by taking into consideration the way political party members and the general public express their rejection and condemnation of a presidential candidate for an action or behaviour that a particular political group or the general public see as wrong.
Our review of mainstream and social media platforms found that 99% of UPND members give social approval of HH as the President of Zambia. They believe that his behaviour, traits, and attributes would make him a better President of the Republic than ECL.
On ECL, UPND members and sympathizers claim that he is discriminatory because he focuses on appeasing PF cadres. However, 80% of PF members give social approval of ECL as the President of Zambia. They claim that HH has anti-social behaviour, and that his persona will deepen divisions in the country. They further claim that HH is largely inaccessible,and therefore cannot be inclusive in his government. Hence, PF members prefer ECL for continuity because he is “President” for all Zambians.
By altruism, we mean the behaviour and actions of a presidential candidate aimed at benefitting another individual at a cost to the candidate. For example, the giving away by a presidential candidate of own possessions, through a structured programme that is targeted at vulnerable societal groups. Such an action is considered altruistic because on one hand, it helps someone who is poor, but on the other hand, it is service at a cost of a respective candidate for being deprived of own personal wealth or possessions. The basic principle of altruism is that a person has no right to exist for his own sake; that service to others is the only justification of his existence, and that self-sacrifice is a person’s highest moral duty, virtue and value.
Our review established that ECL is altruistic while HH is not. There is no doubt that as at 1990, ECL and HH had relatively equal wealth if any, as both were corporate executives with a very small difference in terms of employment period. It is also a fact that between 1990 and 2020, they have both accrued wealth through their works, except that HH has acquired more wealth than ECL.
However, a review of mainstream and social media platforms shows that ECL has been giving away a very significant portion of his own personal possessions, through various structured economic empowerment programmes targeted at vulnerable societal groups. Meanwhile, HH is considered selfish because he has no such altruistic programme despite his gigantic wealth. Selfishness is one key factor that emerged as likely to cost HH the 2021 election.
In evaluating belongingness, we considered the human emotional need to be an accepted member of a social grouping. Whether it is family, friends, co-workers, a religion, tribe or something else, people tend to have an inherent desire to belong, and be an important part of something greater than themselves. This implies a relationship that is greater than simple acquaintance or familiarity. The need to belong is the need to give and receive attention to and from others.
Belonging is a strong and inevitable feeling that exists in human nature. To belong or not to belong is a subjective experience that can be influenced by a number of factors within ourselves and our surrounding environment. Roy Baumeister and Mark Leary argue that belongingness is such a fundamental human motivation that we feel severe consequences for not belonging. This desire is so universal that the need to belong is found across all cultures and different types of people. Some political leaders consider Hakainde Hichilema as tribal on account that Southern, Western and Northwestern Provinces have given him massive votes from 2011 to 2016.
That is a mistaken notion. It is not tribal at all. Rather it is a virtue of belongingness which inevitable and is an organic inevitable human feeling, hence, members of political parties vote for their respective parties. For the same reason, it will be noted that church membership is influenced by origins of people. Seventh Day Church members are usually from certain regions, just like Reformed Church of Zambia, Apostolic Church of Zambia, United Church of Zambia, Lumpa Church, etc.
Through the belongingness factor, Southern, Western, Central and North Western Provinces voters are more likely to vote for HH than ECL. Eastern, Muchinga, Northern, and Luapula Provinces voters are likely to vote for ECL than HH. Lusaka and Copperbelt will be battleground Provinces, likely swing the election in favour of either candidate. There is nothing tribal about voting from all provinces.
In evaluation the sense of duty, 80% of UPND members consider ECL as lazy on account of his declaration of holidays. They claim he likes ‘parte-after parte’. Meanwhile, 99% of PF members argue that ECL is dutiful, as will be noted from his wearing of military uniforms when in the field working with security and defence personnel. They also argue that his “sela tubombe” mantrawhich has resulted in massive infrastructure development countrywide, and regular inspections of projects, is proof of his commitment to duty.
Furthermore, they argue, besides President Lungu, no other Republican President after the First Republican President the late Dr. Kaunda has ever worn military uniforms when interacting or carrying out filed work with military and security personnel on duty. Only President Kaunda did so. This, according to PF members, is a demonstration of a very high sense of commitment to duty. They doubt that HH can ever wear military uniform on such duty “because he likes mimicking capitalist and suits are a symbol white collar lazy work culture”. PF members also argue that “all work and no play makes Jack a dull boy” to justify the need for holidays.
Based on the above five fundamental psychological motives: selfishness, duty, altruism, belonging, and social approval, coupled with election results evaluated by province; voter turn-out; total votes cast; votes cast for PF and UPND from 2011 to 2021; and the pattern of the 2021 voter registration, as is shown in the two Tables below, it is projected that at the very least, ECL will win the August 12 election by at least 50.29% of the total votes cast, with HH at 43.65%. At the most, it is projected that ECL will win the election by 50.8% with HH at 44.50%.
What a stupid and baised analysis…..Ato ECL shared his wealthy, with who? The only tthing he shared was beer in chawam coz he couldnt afford his own and that cant be considered generosity
Ati becuase he wears military uniform so he appears to be working…lol. IBANGE
ONLY THE VERY ILLITERATE CAN BELIVE THIS
HOW MUCH ARE THESE PEOPLE PAID TO BLOG THIS RUBBISH
Under 5 members and surrogates won’t like this. Mwatukwa ba Sinkamba for saying the truth. Napita mukwai.
Peter Sinkamba has endorsed ECL so u can’t expect any objective analysis from this drug dealer. Peter is burying his head in the sand like an Ostrich and dazed with the addictive drug he can’t see beyond his nose. The situation on the ground is bad. People are suffering from Hunger,high cost of living, PF Corruption and Patronage, PF Cadre Violence and thuggery , fear of PF Gassing, PF extrajudicial killings etc. Except those benefitting from PF Corruption and Patronage the majority of Zambians will vote for Change of Govt on August 12. People are tired of ECL and PF Misrule. They want to try HH and UPND Alliance and the Zambia we want. Change is coming on August 12 Election rigging or no rigging.
ALTRUISM IS GOOD IF IT’S COMING FROM YOUR HARD EARNED INCOME AND NOT FROM OVER BURDENED TAX PAYERS. IT SHOULDN’T SOUNDS LIKE THE CYNICAL ALTRUISM WHICH WAS PRACTICED BY PICKPOCKETS ALONG CAIRO RD BEFORE THE DEBT CARD AND DIGITAL ECONOMY. PICKPOCKETS WOULD STEAL CASH FROM PEDESTRIANS AND THROUGH A FEW KWACHA’S DOWN TO DIVERT ATTENTION FROM THOSE WHO WHERE CHASING THEM – SHOOTING KAWALALA, KAWALALA.
People pls leave Honorable Sinkamba alone as it is free to Hallucinate. For as long as we, real Zambians on the ground know our soil very well, that’s okey – let them eat their last change.
LOL. Sinkamba needs to seat down.
He is repeating what that bogus survey stated albeit hiving some illogical reasons.
The opposition should worry, I feel like the PF will rig the election to reflect these cooked up figures.
There is a reason why these estimates are popping up everywhere.
PF AND LUNGU MUST FALL
THIS IS THE CRY OF ZAMBIANS
This article is one of the most unbiased in recent times. Of course Mr Sinkamba has tried to utilise the scientific basis on human behaviour with regard to the sense of belonging among others. Mr Sinkamba has been very economical as not to indulge into tribalism. At what point does the sense of belonging become tribalism? Everyone in Zambia knows and feels it even though they may not be able to articulate it. With regards to the numbers everyone has a right to predict what they closely feel will be the outcome. I feel it may be close but ECL has an edge over the closest opponent HH. The incumbent may get between 5 -10% more than his rival.
HOGWASH!
Zambians have become poorer under his watch. Mwanawasa worked on the overall economy and not on personal donations. Failed Presidents like Presidential slash funds to selected cadres and Church groups instead of bettering the economy for all.
Peter Sinkamba don’t bore us with lengthy articles, we know who you’re supporting so make it simple for us by just shouting “Alebwelelapo!!!!” Why do you want to beat about the bush?
This quote below from the article is a load of B*S. The notion that people like Lungu because he wears a military uniform on duty is Wacko. By the way there is nothing wrong HH being a Capitalist. This is yet another proof that Marijuana has an effect on people.
No other Republican President after the First Republican President the late Dr. Kaunda has ever worn military uniforms when interacting or carrying out filed work with military and security personnel on duty. Only President Kaunda did so. This, according to PF members, is a demonstration of a very high sense of commitment to duty. They doubt that HH can ever wear military uniform on such duty “because he likes mimicking capitalist and suits are a symbol white collar lazy work culture”.
ECL is winning this election even if lusakatimes blocks some of us from posting comments which support PF
Just look at the name of the writer of this
Article.We don’t have to go far in digging what it is saying.The name is linked to PF.
How do we expect him to praise the opposition?
Peter Sinkamba is a Lungu stooge …I stopped reading at “From literature surveyed” you can not expect any objectivity from him…I am surprised he still writes articles. This is the only opposition leader that was invited at Hero’s stadium at KK’s funeral…there is no way a dog can bite off the hand that feeds him.
PF can only win by rigging and they know it. That’s why they are stopping or frustrating their main opponents in the campaigns. How do you explain the reduced voter population in the opposition strongholds while in other areas it has increased?
Like it or not. Pretend you not in Zambia if you so wish. In short just satisfy your imaginary expectations. Fact is what sonkamba has put up may even be better than what will be. As I see it HH will be below 42%.
So fyala ngwinta filya.
what about you, by how many percent are you going to loose?
this is coming from luapula, ECL’s people here are talking about watermelons all the time. ”sela tulyemo” is the motto.
Ati ECL “Alebwelapo” to do what? After 10 years of PF disastrous Rule ECL is coming back to continue destroying the Zambian Economy and People’s lives? Who will vote for continued suffering and misery? PF Cadres and Supporters of PF will vote for ECL becoz they are benefitting from PF Corruption and Patronage. The Majority of Zambians are suffering from high cost of living,no jobs, PF Corruption, Mismanagement of the Economy, Violent and Repressive PF Cadres, extrajudicial killings etc. They will not vote for the continuation of this disastrous ECL Misrule. People will vote for a Change of Govt and that Change is HH and UPND Alliance and the Zambia we want. On August 12 People have no choice but to kick out ECL and PF out of Power. Another 5 years of ECL Rule is too ghastly…
Is the “structured economic empowerment programmes” coming from Lungu`s personal pocket ?
Mr Sinkamba it is not true that only ECL is the only predient apart from KK who military uniforms since Kaunda, do your research again…just google and that find even Sata, RB wore military uniforms when it was necessary. If you can not write the truth about some simple and on the surface as that, I dont see you being truthful in anything deeper.
NONSENSE
FIRST OF ALL NO PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE WILL REACH THE 50+1 THRESHOLD IN THE FIRST ROUND.
SECONDLY, IF EASTERN PROVINCE VOTES FOR ECL AND SOUTHERN VOTES FOR HH, THEN LUAPULA PROVINCE WILL VOTE FOR THEIR SON OF THE SOIL HARRY KALABA.
Alebwelelapo pamupando.
Sorry!
Alebwelelapo pamupando.
H² has given up 2021. However it is likely that h² is not prepared to give up in 2026.
Let him meet CK and many others. True, the voting pattern in SP is not likely to change and h² is not winning State House.
On my knees saying let it be a 6th record breaker loss.
If he sticks around still, we slap him with a ka klazy 7th time slap of the 2026. Everyone knows that it’s ECL100%, PF100%, Zambia overdrive 100%, Elite Zambians100%, Peace 100%, Bumper harvest 200%, Empowerment 100%, Development 100%.
All this noise will come to an end come August 14 when we will retire someone in national interest. You can’t have 5 years of political squabbles and hostility We need as a nation to focus on politics of development.
Alebwelelapo pamupando.
Sorry!
Alebwelelapo pamupando.
H² has given up 2021. However it is likely that h² is not prepared to give up in 2026.
Let him meet CK and many others. True, the voting pattern in SP is not likely to change and h² is not winning State House.
On my knees saying let it be a 6th record breaker loss.
If he sticks around still, we s.lap him with a ka k.la.zy 7th time slap of the 2026. Everyone knows that it’s ECL100%, PF100%, Zambia overdrive 100%, Elite Zambians100%, Peace 100%, Bumper harvest 200%, Empowerment 100%, Development 100%.
Another true son of the soil has judged correctly.
While they win on social meadia others win literally.
No need to demonize a person that has expressed his opinion.
As usual, listen to a load of BS from demented unreasonables.
Firstly, we must acknowledge that Zambians were united in mourning the death of the Founding Father of the Republic of Zambia, Dr. KK. – with great respect. Secondly, Mr. Sikamba’s analysis is very objective. The pending electoral disaster for HH can be hinged of several other factors that Mr. Sinkamba did not dwell on. A reference to the 2016 Presidential Elections reveal that HH lost to ECL by a difference of few votes. In 2016 HH gained votes from supporters of GBM, supporters of Prof. Lungwangwa & Co in Western Province – and these voters have shifted support to PF. The resignation of UPND leaders and MPs in the South,is yet another factor substracting votes from HH. One only needs simple Arithmetic to predict outcomes of 2021 Elections.
How is HH anti social when PF keeps blocking his movements? Also WTF does wearing a military uniform has to do with job competencies? That uniform is not for jokes so who cares whether or not HH will wear one. It’s not a beauty contest here.
Also just because HH is wealthy it doesn’t mean he should dishing out his money to every Jim and Jack. Prior to becoming president did ECL ever do such a thing?
You can rig an election but not an economy.
….a word to the wise, smoking chamba ruins the brain…this article is proof of this. Even people in the so called stronghold have not been spared the pain of a crumbling economy
Ya Sikamba mwati uli?…ECL wealthy, lini? White collar workers are lazy?…Wearing a military uniform makes one hard working? Kaunda, Mwanawasa, RB & Sata all have worn military uniforms…only Kafupi FTJ has never I believe; They were hard workers…not ECL with or without his disturbing public holidays.
How much was given to you to come up with such a shallow analysis? Are you living in Zambia with the rest of us or you have been won over by the PF clique? Likini kuzusha yantu twapapata.
The lawlessness that people are witnessing from PF party cadres, inflated public work costs whose intention is to grease PF functionaries, chief among them ECL himself (whom you have labelled wealthy already); ECL’s own uninspiring, unambitious leadership style and demeanor is what you have found in…
ECL’s own uninspiring, unambitious leadership style and demeanor is what you have found in your research as to what will make a majority of voters choose him over HH? Well kaya..mmmh with my 2 cents opinion unless you got high on something I doubt.
Please kindly be honest with yourself ECL is behind HH is peoples preference for President as it is today barring a “miracle”
Independent – So what does Harry Kalaba do with that? If I was Kalaba I would stand as an MP then use the little resources I have received from those Pastors in Malawi and RSA I have to campaign for my other Party candidates all strategically placed in Luapula then build from there…like what NDC was doing until PF smartly derailed them.
The outcome of the 2021 Elections will be determined by Bread and Butter and Governance issues. People will vote with their stomachs and not all those aspects Peter Sinkamba is talking about. High Cost of Living,PF Corruption, PF Cadre Violence and thuggery, PF Mismanagement of the Economy, PF Gassing Citizens etc. Those PF Cadres and Supporters who are benefitting from PF Corruption and Patronage will vote for ECL and PF but they are in the Minority. The Majority of Zambians are suffering and will vote for a Change of Govt on August 12. People are sick and tired of PF Misrule and would like to give HH and UPND Alliance to Govern Zambia and restore Peace and Stability to make Progress. The writing is on the wall.
SINKAMBA CHAMUKANKA CHAMBA! UNDER PF WE ARE FREE TO HALLUCINATE. GO ON MR siCHAMBA. SOON REALITY WILL KNOCK ON YOUR DOOR AND RELIEVE YOU OF THE CHAMBA INCUBUS.
No third term
Can the economic stats which ECL turned from positive to negative during his rule earn him a vote, I strongly doubt and how does one suddenly become altruistic in years towards elections, are Zambians not smart enough to see through this
Same WhatsApp group with Peter Chanda, Cosmas Mumba the guy who decided to faint at Satas funeral, Ntewewe who appears to have survived a bush fire and of course this Sinkamba, all these claim to have their own parties but competing with the PF spokesperson, us as PF members don’t even want these chaps to comment on our party affairs, we are capable on our own, why don’t they dissolve their one man parties and come to join us
This propaganda cannot work because Edgar Lungu cant win these elections, if that were the case why are opposition members restricted in their travels like the way it was with the alliance partners who wanted to go for a church function in Mpika, how does a normal person say you cant go because PF central committee members are there, who are these PF central committee members to enjoy preference over others, Ubupuba of the worst order
Inflation record high at 22%
Exchange rate record high at K22 to a dollar
Reserves record low – depleted
Unemployment – record high
Debt situation – record high
Then Lungu should win, how mwebanthu sure?
@ Independent, very practical and commonsense analysis. There will be re-run. I have gone around all provinces as a newspaper journalist and my findings are as under:
How the people are expected to vote?
Northern ECL 64% , Fred M’membe 26%, HH 7%, Others 3%
Muchinga Similar as above
Luapula. Kalaba 55%, Lungu 35%, Fred 2%, HH 4%, Others 4%
North western Lungu 27% , HH 65%, Fred 7%, Others 1%
Western Lungu 20%, Fred 46%, HH 32%, Others 2%
Copper belt Lungu 46%, HH 42%, Fred 11%, Others 1%
Lusaka Lungu 38%, HH 44%, Fred 14%, Others 4%
Central Lungu 30%, Fred 12%, HH 56%, Others 4%
Southern Lungu 8%, Fred 11%, HH 81%
Eastern Lungu 56%, HH 39%, Fred 3%, Others 2%
Rerun between President Lungu and Mr. Hakainde.
Fred and Kalaba’s voters will play a…
Sinkamba is a well-dressed beggar, blackmailer and a bully at the same time. By september he will be singing praises for His Excellency HH.
Green Marijuana gangster Sinkamba.
Our unbiased, independent and professional survey shows the following results in the August 12 polls 55% HH , 32% ECL, and 13% others with a 3% margin of error
The perennial bridesmaid has spoken. Now let us go to the wedding.
The writer is on point if hichilema is able to leave his close relatives to suffer, even his young brother is struggling, hichilema almost beat up a fuel attendant over his K10 change… Who is it that hichilema helps if he has failed to assist his relatives !
What a load of hogwash trash article full of bias ,personal delusions and selective memory.I can’t wait to see Sinkamba’s flawed analysis derailed and crashed in August
Hi…is KZ the troll still alive??
if you have ears you have listened….someone is going back to his crying sessions…ranting and talking to himself….bye bye boi
MARK MY WORDS: There is only one way for Lungu to win the Election, and that is by CHEATING. No matter what Zambian people shall NEVER accept if Lungu gonna win. PEOPLE OF ZAMBIA, STAND UP AND SHOW YOU WANT DEMOCRACY, NOT A DICTATOR, If Lungu gonna win because of his cheating will he get the Bill 10 through, and then will Lungu be the next Robert Mugabe, sitting for mora than 25 years and he and his family will be so rich and Zambia gonna belong to the worlds poorest countries. SAD SAD SAD; NO TO CORRUTION, SAY NO TO LUNGU