By Venus N Msyani, Concerned citizen
As the August 12 election approaches help Zambia leave no stone unturned. It has come to light that the Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ) has not done enough job on educating people on 50%+1 vote clause.
Some Zambians still don’t understand why others say Hakainde Hichilema lost to president Edgar Lungu by 13 000 votes in the 2016 general election and ignoring them is a threat to post August 12 election peace.
To make the matter worse, even the president himself seem not to believe that he won by that number.
Various comments on the article Simple math favors opposition leader Hakainde Hichilema, which also appeared under the headline The real battle is between the opposition United Party for National Development (UPND) and the Ruling Patriotic Front (PF) on Lusaka Times lead to this conclusion. And also, a post on Zambian Eye news.
“I stopped reading at “In the 2016 general election Hakainde lost again but managed to cut the margin to half. He lost by only about 13 000 votes.” This is clearly Under 5 thinking at it’s why Under 5 supporters will cry. Over 100, 000 is now 13 000? Anyway, let me just end here.” Someone with a pseudonym Kawasaki commented.
Another comment by another pseudonym Wondering: I thought HH lost by a margin of about 100,000 votes in 2016? I stand to be corrected? Where has the 13,000 come from?
“I won by 100 000 in 2016 and this time around I will win by 500 000 votes.” Zambian Eye News quotes president Edgar Lungu.
Talking about it. 6,698,372 registered to vote in 2016 and 3, 695,710 cast their votes. The Patriotic Front (PF) received 1,860,877 votes while United Party for National Development (UPND) received 1,760,347 and the rest went to miscellaneous parties.
Under the 50%+1 clause, one needs to cross the line, which is 50% of the votes in order to win the Zambian presidency. Hence, what matters under the 50%+1vote clause is the percentage above the line.
It is true the vote difference in 2016 was a little bit above a hundred thousand but what made Lungu a winner was +0.35%. Otherwise, the election was headed for a rerun.
Edgar Lungu won by about 13 000 votes, which is a total vote cast (3,695,7100) times 0.35/100. In short, 13000 votes are votes that helped Lungu meet the 50%+1 clause.
Sounds simple but not to be taken for granted. Anyone with a better understanding or explanation should not hesitate to share. No stone should be left unturned to avoid post-election confusion.
This election will surprise a lot of people.
HH has a good chance to win currently, no matter what people think. The COVID pandemic played in HHs favor the kwacha got messed last year some prices went up…In the end a lot of people went through a terrible hardship.
If you are from Africa and you understand the African people you should understand why HH stands a chance…there is a saying in Africa..As a politician you can be corrupt or even abuse your office for personal gain, no one will bother you…but when you touch people’s money or you mess up their budget your days in office are numbered. I don’t think any of the people will remember all the development the PF has done…everything is expensive they can’t feed their families this is I think this year’s election will be a big surprise…
If you consider all the blocking of HH and his campain team , the PF violence and intimidation, the use of the whole GRZ to campaign in facilitate lungus campaign,
100,000 is only a township in Lusaka.
UPND did win if that was a free and fair election.
Having used the whole GRZ , and thuggery, it was a stolen win for lungu.
NO THOSE VOTES WHERE JUST CREATED WHEN THEY STOPED SHOWING ON TV
In 2015 ECL won with 28,000 votes and 2016 ECL won with 100,000 votes.
Don’t forget that Upnd strongholds voters turn out was averagely 87 % which was averagely 39% only Lusaka was 53%. However, compared to 76 by – elections done in Upnd strongholds, pf has 59 of them. Strategically pf has best grassroots political maneuvering in non – urban areas. Upnd wait for the actual polling results
Multiply that by a simple 15 the answer will be the margin one will suffer this time around.
Nangu nikamo boi ninshi nalusa.
Alebwelelapo.
Thanks for the clarification. To win the Presidential Vote a Candidate needs to reach the 50% + 1 vote threshold to avoid a Re-run. Given the macroeconomic and Political situation ECL has a tough time to win the Election the first round. With Macmillan’s wind of Change blowing across Zambia HH has a better chance of winning this Election the first round. The writing is on the wall.
Here they go again these f00Iish tribal losers. They hear still not accepted that they lost and that they will continue losing until they do away with their tribal hateful attitudes. A lose is a lose even by 10 votes. Now simply fcuk off!!!
I now believe why they say upnd win on social media while PF win on the ground.
You are over confident and don’t leave room for a negative outcome because of your social media popularity.
It’s 10 days.
The most realistic comment comes from Mr. P. Upnd and its supporters have conveniently forgotten the recent by-elections and suddenly whipped up a lot of optimism and excitement that they are winning by a landslide. The issue of displaying crowds on social media made hh cry in northern province to the extent of a upnd mp getting convicted after beating and kidnapping ZP officers after losing. The president has done well to deploy the army to avoid violence when upnd lose again.
Freedom Sikazwe in Mpulungu has conceded that PF has lost support there. He says that PF has tried to sway the People using Money and Material things but People are not budging. He says that People are crying out for a change of Govt on August 12. Davies Mwila after following HH’s recent Campaigns in EP has also conceded that HH and UPND Alliance have infiltrated PF Strongholds and unless they can reverse the trend PF is losing in its Strongholds. Its true u cannot stop an idea whose time has come. We shall see what will happen after August 12. The writing is on the wall.
@Venus, you are just trying to play around with figures to suit your narrative. Even 13 000 above the 50+1 is quite a lot. Even 1 vote just, was going to be enough for ECL.
This time ni 5000 difference. Thanks.
Whatever your interpretation of the results the fact still remains that he won and Hichilema lost. Give Hichilema 13,000 votes we see if he’s going to win. Such analysis are one of the ways that losers console themselves
A win is a win. So if president Lungu won that election then why has HH spent the last few years contesting and not recognising Lungu as president? This is the scary part with HH, If he can do that knowingly that he lost then what tricks does he have up his sleeves this time round? We don’t even know what these parties are campaigning about because the message is suppressed by behaviours. The only campaign message which is clear cut so far is by Thomas Sipalo. How I wish these politicians could learn a thing or two and adopt his style of campaigning.
Upnd are all dogs. Woof woof. This is the language they understand
There are other things at play which you have to put in consideration and why they are called strongholds. Things that are hard to change ie voting on tribal lines or ethnicity. PF has generally delivered so not everyone will jump ship because of hunger some have prospered in this economy and others see it as work in progress. The rural vote is not so much about prices of food items it’s tangible things like school, hospital , social cash transfer, early distribution of inputs and grain price. The other factor like CB is saving the jobs for miners and others just like ECL approach to politics and providing leadership in difficult times and some don’t just feel the need for change and others think the opposition has not inspired enough to drive the change.
@ Kaiser Zulu No points but tribal talk, insults and profanity. This is a sure sign you are sinking.
@Ayatolla if you gave HH 13,000 there is no way ECL was getting 50%+1
Lack of understanding by brainless PF cadres.
ECL only won the 2016 elections by 13,000 because you also have to count the votes won by all the Presidential candidates.
Have you noticed the pattern in the comments only zambians abroad think HH won 2016 election
I don’t know if my maths is correct. If in 2016, 6, 698 372 registered to vote ; but only 3,695, 710 voted, and given tallied votes per each presidential candidate; Lungu 1, 860 877 and HH 1, 760, 347,, the total votes cast were 3,621,224., When you add these figures the qualitative difference is 74, 486 votes. How did Lungu get 100, 000 votes? .Given that out of the 74 486 votes there were spoiled ballots and other votes belonged to some participating opposition parties like Nawakwi’s FDD, the 100, 000 votes remain suspicious. The only people who know the truth are those who were engaged in cooking the figures to help Lungu win the election. The figures 13 000 or 100 000 are nothing but a mere bluff.. Kuya bebele.
Hehehehehe………now I understand why PF had to make sure that this year the total number of registered voters in the UPND strongholds greatly reduced, to reduce the chances of the main opposition party from winning which is also tantamount to rigging. We are yet to see if this attempted rigging succeeds or fails
FORGET 2016 …..NOW IS THE TIME TO START WAVING GOOD BYR TO Mr LUNGU AND HIS ROTTEN PF
FORGET WHAT THE POLLS SAY AS THEY AE WAY OUT AND JUST PF PROPAGANDA
SPEAK TO THE PEOPLE ON THE GROUND AROUND THE COUNTRY
@Night, this is where HH gets it wrong because he focuses on diaspora ideas instead of local ideas from people who are to close to him. How I wish he could look into that in future.
Sad Zed mentality… blame others including the weather for your loss. No introspection and candid analysis of the results so that mediocrity and none achievement is defeated. And one expects to lead the country with this self defeating mind. You even call him Bally. Sad
Election in Zambia since PF came into power aren’t credible.
ECZ is not an independent entity. It favors the PF.
Let’s say, “yes he won by 13,000 votes. But ECL was not talking about your way of thinking, but the difference between the votes he got and that of HH.
The fact is ECL as of today cannot win free,fair,fair and credible Elections in Zambia. To retain Power ECL has to rely on rigging this Election in his favour. With PF Strongholds turning from Green to Red ECL has tough times ahead to win this Election. With Macmillan’s wind of Change blowing across Zambia HH and UPND Alliance have a better chance to win this Election outright. People are crying out for a change of Govt and on August 12 Zambians will vote for change.
Arithmetic in Zambia is a big problem. That is why our Judge Esau Chulu announced that Edgar Lungu had 29,971 votes out of 29,741 votes cast. Where in the world except in Belarus does one get more votes than the number of votes cast? This time round the President claims that he will win by 500,000 votes. He does not realise that he could have 500,000 more votes than his nearest rival, but still have less than 50% plus 1 vote! There are 7,023,499 registered voters. The average voter turnout in Zambia is 56%. If for the sake of argument there is a 60% turnout (unprecedented if people want to keep the same government), that will mean 4,214,099 votes. To win outright, one must get 2,107,050 plus 1. This means that anyone vying for the seat this year must aim for 2,500,000 votes.
I hope people on this platform are also aware that the Voters register has more numbers in certain regions than what happened in the last elections. Under-five will cry the loudest
The bottom line is that he won.
One can even win by margin of 5
The story is simple Mr Lungu got the 51% threshold by 13 000 votes(so it was actually 50.xx) given the prevalence of manufactured votes it is doubtful whether this was the case. So PF know that to win this time round , they have to do better! But they have destroyed the economy, they have even bigger scandals, the gassing issues unresolved, a totally useless police force created in their own image-can not even face a PF cadre;must be soul destroying to be a police officer.
Sometimes be careful what you wish for. PF will completely destroy Zambia remove them now before it is too late!
The new voters registered removed lots of ghost voters and double voters. Here lies the problem.
NOWONDER LUNGU HAS BEEN CAMPAIGNING NONESTOP SINCE 2016, NOW IF WE SUBTRACT THE STOLEN KALULUSHI VOTES, WHAT DOES HE REMAIN WITH? JUST LET HIM GO AND REST, IT HASN’T WORKED FOR THE CHANCER.
# 35@Lincoln
You suppose PF dubiously added some votes to make ECL win and you refer to Kalulushi votes. Logically speaking UPND strongholds had overwhelming voter turn out with very huge margins but surprisingly the polling stations closed exactly at 18hrs in the rural communities where the illiteracy levels are very high while in the urban areas with similar turn out polling stations closed about 20:30hrs. So don’t you think there was vote manipulation in those areas? Now with the new register and hopefully alert polling agents don’t you think the numbers for UPND has declined even further this year?
@Independent, it’s in the UPND where you find an abundance of educated brainless intellectuals. Keep consoling yourselves and copying from others. When your alliance collapsed Wynter Kabimba told you that PF had worked on the 35,000 vote difference between RB and MCS in 2008. That won’t apply to 2021. So Hichilema was working on 13,000? I congratulate him in advance for the record 6th loss.
Please prepare under 5s speech or his petition for him he needs the likes of you…people write books… busy talking about an election
WHY ALL THE TALK OF 2016 THATS HISTORY
WATCH PF CRY AND PUT SOME DIRTY PRACTICE INTO TO PLAY BEFORE FINAL RESULT
One thing I know about Zambia is that sometimes we are in denial. Remember how much we all said Sata would not make it to State House…people know who they are going to vote for. They majority will not necessarily vote for HH, but they will vote against Lungu.
The fact is ECL as of today cannot win free,fair,fair and credible Elections in Zambia. To retain Power ECL has to rely on rigging this Election in his favour. With PF Strongholds turning from Green to Red ECL has tough times ahead to win this Election. With Macmillan’s wind of Change blowing across Zambia HH and UPND Alliance have a better chance to win this Election outright. People are crying out for a change of Govt and on August 12 Zambians will vote for change.
@Kaiza. The ugliest blogger here is Kaizar Bonzo the clown with an enormous nose that drips with hate and shame. He is also the damnest. In real life, he truly is a sick man. This is man with wife and children, unbelievable! It really is shameful to have a human being like him in our midst. I feel sorry for him.
It doesn’t change the fact. Ecl won the election by 0.35% but beat hh by over 100,000 votes.
It is the same attitude which makes you not to campaign thinking you have already won or the foregoing favours you. Keep dreaming, if you like, wake up after 12th to watch TV and meet hh conceding defeat
PLEASE OPPOSITION. Make sure every ballot box in every constituency is escorted by your agents. If the official transport has no room to carry your agents, have a car or motorcycle to accompany the boxes,! One wag they get a few extra votes is between transportation from voting centers tioinal counting centers.
Moreover, your candidate has a tainted reputation. So your chances of losing are high. Hh is far from being the alternative.
What I think the author is knotting us with is the margin between HH and Lungu and the plus 50 percent margin. Over HH Lungu had over a 1000, 000 votes but past 50 percent he was only 13,000 votes
Mwepu I can tell you are a tribal upnd supporter. Sorry to hurt your feelings. The truth hurts you ****
Do what. You can even win by 1 vote
So what you can even win by 1 vote that is why it is called 50 plus 1
@Spaka #3
Rupiah Banda used all the thuggery, thieving and such like. He lost to the opposition in 2011. Tell me something else that is believable and I will take it seriously sensible. It doest mean when the UPND loses, then then someone stole from them!
So what if he won by 13,000 votes? The fact is he won. I can see that the upnd propaganda is running out of ideas. Anyway, prepare for another loss. It’s coming!