12 Reasons Why a United Zambian Opposition Cannot Win Against President HH in 2026 – Part Two

By Leemans L. Nyirenda

Reason No. 7: The strength of the opposition revolves around Mr. Lungu, who lacks character. Mr. Lungu may possess some semblance of strategy for the 2026 elections but lacks the character to go all the way to win. He has not learned from his past, and he has so many issues to contend with, too numerous to itemize. The man is a crybaby. Whenever one of his family members faces the law, he cries like a baby. Unlike President HH, who endured 127 days of hard labor in prison on his way to State House, Mr. Lungu looks too weak to spend even one week in prison. He would easily break for missing his Jameson, family, jogging, and his luxurious lifestyle. The obstacles that HH underwent on his way to victory would be too heavy a burden for Mr. Lungu to carry if he were to be subject to just 20 percent of it. Resiliency is not part of his DNA. Even his presidency was won through violence and trickery. He lacks the character to navigate the opposition to victory when the going gets tough.

Reason No. 8: Opposition leading candidate Mr. Lungu is haunted by the past and has blood on his hands. Unfortunately for the opposition, Mr. Edgar Lungu has not apologized, and neither has he shown remorse for the killings of innocent lives after commanding his “troops” to kill innocent souls. Just to mention a few names:

• Chibulo Mapenzi in July 2016 was murdered in cold blood under his command.
• Gravious Mutapa in February 2015 was killed because he was UPND.
• Versper Shimuzhila was smoked to death by Mr. Lungu’s “troops” under his command at UNZA in 2018.
• Lawrence Banda was shot dead on October 6th, 2019, and the killers protected or hidden by his regime,
• Joseph Kaunda and Nsama Nsama were killed simultaneously after the bullets missed President HH.

Instead of standing with those who were mourning for the loss of their loved ones, Mr. Lungu chose to stand by the killers and murderers and sometimes even promoted the trigger nappy cops like Namuswa after shooting Peter Masani at the High Court. Mr. Lungu is never emotionally affected by the sight of someone wailing. He can only pretend to be. Memories are still fresh, and tears will never dry until he shows remorse and apologizes to the families and Zambians at large.

Reason No. 9: Jail time awaits some prominent opposition party leaders. While every suspect is deemed innocent until proven guilty, most of the opposition leaders are suspects and facing criminal charges for corruption and abuse of office. Some of these leaders will be lucky if they made it to the 2026 polling day. They are putting up appearances, but in private conversations, they are expressing their fears of going to jail. Going into an election of that magnitude with serious allegations of corruption and plunder may just work to their detriment. Zambian voters may resent voting for them on account of wasted votes in the event they went to prison and would not serve their interest. In such a scenario, some voters would even stay away.

Reason No. 10: Opposition is demoralized and fatigued. Since 2021, the opposition has continued to lose ground through loss of National Assembly and Council Chamber seats. The loss of parliamentary seats to the ruling party in Kabushi and Kwacha constituencies sent shivers in the opposition camp while most of the vacancies that have fallen in councils for councilors in most parts of the country have been won by the ruling party UPND. Those voters who have continued to vote for the opposition are now fatigued and demoralized. Their most likely choices in 2026 will be either to join them (UPND) and vote HH or stay away from voting as their votes will be seen as a waste of time and effort.

Reason No. 11: Eligibility Mystery for the opposition. Their top contender is embroiled in his eligibility to stand as a presidential candidate in 2026. The matter revolves around the powers of the constitution court. Has this court possessed the power to review its own decisions? If the answer is yes, then Mr. Lungu’s eligibility to stand in 2026 hangs in the balance as it has been challenged in this court, and judgment is being awaited. The challenge of his eligibility is grounded upon the premise that he served two terms and was sworn in twice as a president of the Republic of Zambia and as such he is not eligible to stand. If the ruling be in favor of the petitioner, it goes without saying that the opposition will get into a scramble for presidency, and hell is expected to break loose. The divisions in opposition are inevitable and more likely.

Reason No. 12: The Zambian opposition is just “Chimbwi no plan.” Apart from being armchair critics on everything President HH does, the opposition does not provide any alternative solutions. They use all manner of jargon they learned in school to pour scorn on the president. “HH has failed,” “HH is a dictator,” “HH is a disaster…” Meanwhile, the same HH is delivering graders for feeder roads to all the constituencies in peri-urban and rural constituencies (Graders began to disappear during MMD rule and disappeared completely after PF took over and hence the poor state of roads in Zambia). HH is delivering desks to all schools across the country so that by the end of 2024 no child will be sitting on the floor. Parents are no longer hassling looking for school fees for their children as education is now free. Teachers, Nurses, and other Medical Personnel are back in schools, clinics, and hospitals in big numbers in all constituencies across the country with an average of 230 trained teachers and 96 nurses and other medical personnel per constituency, with these numbers expected to increase by 2026. No one has ever achieved such performance since Dr. Kaunda left the presidency. By 2026, every constituency will have received K145 million for social and economic development and hence indeed HH’s campaign will be issue-based. The opposition leaders’ challenges will emanate from the fact that they will have nowhere to “sonta epo wabomba” as they themselves coined it? The most unfortunate part for them is that they will not and cannot reverse what President HH has done and doing, neither can they stop his gains. Based on the facts that have been highlighted in this article, it can be argued with some force that the opposition has very little chance to carry the day in 2026 unless something extraordinary happens between now and 2026. Relying on current hardships and events to project what will happen in 2026 is in futility. A united opposition cannot, therefore, win against HH in 2026.

The author is a human rights advocate, author, researcher, youth and development partner, and corporate and management consultant. He holds a Master of Business Administration, Bachelor of Laws, and Diploma in Human Resource Management.