Lungu Poised for Major Comeback as Opposition Falters, While Hichilema Faces Political Reality

Lungu Poised for Major Comeback as Opposition Falters, While Hichilema Faces Political Reality

As Zambia’s political landscape shifts, the opposition continues to falter in disarray, and rumors abound that former President Edgar Chagwa Lungu is on the brink of making a dramatic comeback. Sources close to the matter suggest Lungu is preparing to exit the United Kwacha Alliance (UKA) in October 2024 and position himself for a nomination under the Tonse Alliance or the People’s Pact. This calculated move could upend the 2026 general elections, as Lungu still commands significant influence and poses a genuine threat to the ruling UPND and President Hakainde Hichilema.

Lungu’s frustrations with UKA’s internal dysfunction are clear, with reports suggesting that he’s displeased with how the alliance handled the expulsion of Sean Tembo, while Saboi Imboela who made similarly controversial statements—was treated with kid gloves. Lungu is said to blame UKA Chairperson Sakwiba Sikota for this bias, further fueling speculation about his imminent exit.

This turmoil within UKA has exposed the cracks in Zambia’s opposition, but what remains equally concerning is President Hichilema’s political approach. While Lungu repositions himself as a serious contender for 2026, Hichilema appears detached, adopting a “know-it-all” attitude that is alienating the very people who propelled him to power. Despite his administration’s long-term vision for Zambia, the President is failing to address the immediate needs of the populace a grave misstep in a country where people vote based on their daily struggles, not future promises.

Hichilema’s strategy to focus on grand plans for infrastructure, economic reforms, and governance is commendable, but it risks becoming irrelevant if Zambians feel their stomachs are empty today. The reality is that politics is often decided by short-term issues. Zambians want results now, not in five or ten years. The “Mr. Nice Guy” politics Hichilema is pursuing might soon become a liability, as the tables could turn dramatically when the electorate prioritizes their immediate needs over lofty visions of future prosperity.

Political analysts warn that Lungu’s potential departure from UKA, coupled with his growing disenchantment with the opposition, could energize his base and attract disillusioned voters. Meanwhile, Hichilema’s inability to listen to the people’s cry for immediate economic relief could be his downfall. History has shown that Zambian voters will not hesitate to oust a leader if their day-to-day struggles are ignored—no matter how impressive long-term plans may appear on paper.

The opposition’s disorganization is undoubtedly working in Lungu’s favor, but the ruling UPND government must also recognize the danger of complacency. President Hichilema’s refusal to heed the voices of the people, particularly when it comes to addressing their pressing needs, may backfire. People vote with their bellies, not with a vision of a distant future.

As the 2026 race draws closer, the political landscape is becoming increasingly unpredictable. With Lungu likely to contest under a new alliance and the opposition in disarray, the UPND must wake up to the political realities at play. Hichilema’s “know-it-all” approach could become a self-imposed obstacle if he doesn’t start addressing the current hardships faced by everyday Zambians. Edgar Lungu is not only re-emerging as a credible contender, but Hichilema’s inability to focus on the now could very well give Lungu the edge in the next election.

In a country where political fortunes can shift overnight, both the opposition and the ruling party must tread carefully. As it stands, Lungu’s chances of reclaiming power in 2026 seem more realistic with each passing day, while Hichilema risks being caught off guard if he continues to underestimate the importance of listening to the immediate concerns of the people. The opposition may be divided, but Hichilema cannot afford to rest on his laurels—because in politics, nice guys don’t always finish first.

By Joseph Ngubeni.
Political Scientist