Zambia’s power, cost of living crisis

By Nkonkomalimba Kafunda

As Zambians brace for increased hours of prolonged load shedding due to the impeding shutdown of the Kariba Dam Power station, power utility ZESCO . and by extension the government, seem at odds to find immediate short term mitigations to the crisis that has gripped the Southern African Nation over the past year.

The power deficit, caused by a severe El Nino induced drought that has incapacitated the country’s 86% hydro dependent electric generation capacity, has greatly exacerbated the woes of the majority of citizens, a cost of living crisis foremost amongst them, leaving the 3 year old UPND administration deeply unpopular. Paradoxically, the ruling party continues to win local government by elections, a situation the opposition attributes this to rampant vote buying in predominately poverty stricken wards with high levels of illiteracy and ignorance. Of 58 y elections held since the 2021 general elections, the UPND have won over 50, gaining significant inroads in opposition strongholds along the way.
Disappointingly, President Hakainde Hichilema at the official opening of the 4th session of the 13th national assembly September 13th called the power deficit ‘regrettable’ saying his government ‘sympathized’ with Zambians but neglected to give the people any measure of comfort by failing to state what his government was doing to mitigate the people’s suffering, in the short term. He did, however, allude to agreements signed In China for solar power generation ad a new thermal power plant in Maamba which will be operational in 2026.

Perhaps noticing this blunder, his Minister of Energy Makozo Chikote, in a September 18 ministerial statement told parliament that depending on availability in the Southern Africa power pool, Zambia will import 450 megawatts of power. This combined with 290 Mega watts rolled back from cancelled exports and power from independent producers will in the immediate term cushion the crisis. Thus far, this has proved to be insufficient and, therefore, ineffective.

The country has an installed generation capacity of 3,777 Mega Watts, peak demand of 2410 Mega Watts but is currently generating 1019 Mega Watts, according to minister Chikote.

Generally things are looking dire. Galloping inflation stands at around 15.4% way above the target range of 6-8% , the staple, mealie meal, is hovering around K350 up from K150 3years ago, The Kwacha exchange rate to the US dollar is gyrating in the K26-28 rage while petrol is oscillating around K30 subject to monthly review. 45% of children under the age of five are suffering from malnutrition and, as a consequence, stunted growth. Economic growth projections have been adjusted downwards to 2.4% from the initial 4.7%.

With such a bleak outlook Zambians cannot afford the luxury of optimism. The current government’s euphoric rise to power amid pomp ad pageantry has been overshadowed by the stratospheric rise in poverty levels. Government statistics indicate 60% Zambians cannot meet basic daily needs. In rural areas the figure is as high as 84%.

Granted the UPND inherited a broken down, debt ridden, defaulting economy, the cornerstone of their recovery program, debt restructuring, has not translated into tangible improvements in the lives of the people, despite agreements having been reached in March 2024 with the official creditors’ committee co chaired by France and China. The UPND “Zambia forward” motto has, seemingly. lost momentum
Asphyxiation, the failure to breathe, is suffocating Zambians economically. It is not uncommon for families to survive on one or no meal a day. Life has simply become unaffordable. According to the Jesuit Centre for Theological Reflection (JCTR) the monthly food basket for family of five stands at K10,4000, way beyond the reach of the overwhelming majority of households.

On a relatively positive note, the standard bearer and driver of UPND decentralization and devolution policy, the enhanced Constituency Development Fund is almost living up to it’s accolade as a game charger. Communities, though with great bureaucratic difficulty, are able to identify and implement projects which they feel best serve their needs. Additionally, loans, grants and bursaries have enabled citizens access to affordable capital as well as tertiary skills development for young people countrywide. Unfortunately, not all Zambians in need can access these funds. The fund has been increased to K30.6 million from K1.6 million in 2021 per constituency per year .

On a somewhat optimistic note, government has concentrated on reviving the long ailing mining sector, amidst unprecedented self-aggrandizement, self-praise and back slapping in the process. The major limping and handicapped mines KCM ad Mopani are now back on stream, though questions linger about KCM investor Vadantta Resources’ financial capability to effectively and efficiently run the mines. In Luanshya ,Shaft 28 is being dewatered after almost half a century in limbo. However, the itty gritties of the deals to resuscitate the mines are murky at best and down right shadowy at worst. Principles of accountability ad transparency have been largely ignored in these opaque mining sector transactions. Zambians are largely in the dark as to the details. Only what the investor is pledging to bring has ee disclosed, what they are getting I return remain state secrets.

Rather ambitiously, the government has set a target of 3 million tons of copper production by the end of the decade from 2023’s production figure of 680,000 tons.

Unsurprisingly, the country’s future prospects seem to be heavily weighed on extractive industry. Earlier this year government launched a 90 million dollar aerial geological survey to identify areas and extent of mineral deposits countrywide. The government has also made pronouncements of issuing mining licensees to locals who can then partner with foreigners in all manner of mining ventures.

We patiently await the impact of these initiatives on the lives of the Zambian people.