If a black person becomes USA President, then Africa’s economy will grow

By Edward Chisanga

I follow up on the excellent article published by Bertie Jacobs in the Lusaka Times of November 2, 2024, entitled, “What impact will the US election have on Africa?”
When Barack Obama, whose father was a black Kenyan and mother a white American became President of the USA in 2009, one African joked that Africans were more thrilled than the Americans. I was in a pub in Geneva, Switzerland, having a beer and watching football when a Kenyan living in the same town began dancing without any music. He certainly had nothing in his ears to suggest that he was listening to a mobile phone music.
Since I knew him, I approached him to ask why he was dancing without sound. He embarrassingly answered me, “You must be the only African in Geneva who has not heard the world’s news today.” When I asked what this milestone was, his sharp answer was that every African in the world especially those in the continent are all dancing to President Obama’s ascendancy to the highest office in the world.

I asked, “Why would that make me dance?” He retorted to humiliate me, “You know Obama is Kenyan, so the USA has a Kenyan President,” I answered back, “I’m aware that Obama was born of a Kenyan African father but am not aware that that made him Kenyan or African.” Standing his ground, he insisted, “No, he is not American because his father is Kenyan.”
As I clearly was not winning the fight, I diverted his attention and asked, “What really is at the heart of this conversation?” He turned to face one of his fellow Kenyans and shouted, “It is good for Kenya. It is good for Africa. Kenya will trade more with the USA. Africa will trade more with the USA and create more wealth for its citizens. After all, the USA is the largest export market that every country dreams to partner. Africa too does.” My humble answer was, “That may not be exactly correct.”

This Kenyan was not alone in making generalized claims. Many Africans, in particular leaders thought the same. They must have hoped that Obama would exempt them from honouring their governance and human rights global commitments. Anakwa Dwamena quotes a Zambian economist, Grieve Chelwa and says, “On the day of Obama’s inauguration, a cab driver in Kinshasa, in the Democratic Republic of Congo, told Grieve, “Since a black man is the president of USA, things are finally going to change for us black people.” He meant change for the better for he and other Africans. He further states, “The general sentiment was that Obama, whose grandfather was a cook for the British in Kenya, would have a personal investment in Africa.
Guy Scott, former President of Zambia is also quoted as saying, “Most people call him an American African instead of an African American.” John Campbell, America’s former Ambassador to Nigeria was quoted by Edward-Isaac Dovere of Politico, “That the President had a Kenyan father, many Africans seemed to think the was somehow going to be their president. When lo and behold he remained the president of the USA, they were disappointed. That’s more of an Africa problem than an Obama problem.” Years have passed since Obama left office and the main judgement from most people, at least the authors of articles that I have read about is something similar to Edward-Isaac Dovere’s summary: “Despite family ties to Kenya, Barack Obama has arguably done less for the continent than his predecessors.” In other words, Obama’s rule is far from matching Africa’s expectations.

The image in Figure 1 below does not reflect the Kenyan sentiments.

The image in Figure 1 below shows important statistical information about the trade partnership between Africa and the USA, in particular during the Presidency of Bill Clinton, George Bush and Barack Obama. For Africa, Clinton’s legacy is largely manifested in granting African countries duty free market access through the establishment of the Africa Growth Opportunities Act (AGOA) unilateral trade preferences which allows Africa’s most products, in particular textiles and clothing to be exported to the USA almost free of duty. Ideally, this gesture was meant to help Africa boost its industries in this sector in order to produce and export. During Bush’s period, from 2001-2009, we see a trending period of increased growth in exports in absolute values, from $20.1 billion in 2002 to $109.2 billion, in fact the highest peak.
When Obama took over in 2009, he found Africa’s exports in absolute value to the USA had receded to $57.3 billion. There was improvement to about $90 billion during his time, between 2010-2011. However, this was offset by a sharp decline down to about $30 billion when he left office in 2017. The unfortunate thing is that many people will look at the trend between the second highest peak of exports in 2011 and 2017 when Obama left office. This is a period I might refer to as Africa’s period of slowly but surely eroding trade relationship with the USA. While African Heads of State were asking the USA to make further extension for AGOA in 2018, to expire in 2025, the world was witnessing the lowest peak of the continent’s exports to the world’s largest market.
Over the years Africa, especially commodity countries have diversified exports to China but not diversified or upgraded products. If you remember, AGOA has conditions attached to it and these include mostly issues bordering on good governance, namely, establishment of market-based economy, rule of law, economic policies to reduce poverty, protection of internationally recognized worker rights, and efforts to combat corruption. Most of the fifty-five African countries have access to AGOA.

It was not Obama’s fault but that of Africa.
The main outstanding reason why Africa’s exports to the USA are declining is the structural problem of lack of supply and production of dynamic products. Market access for textiles and clothing products is largely unfulfilled while Bangladesh and other Asian countries that are blocked from that access wait at the doorstep hoping the USA would soon open for them. In a way, one would not be wrong to point out that by persistently asking for perpetual extension of AGOA, Africa has been tantalizing the USA for something it would not fulfil. The promise that extension would be followed by expanded exports will not be coming home soon.
Picking on Africa’s top twenty exporters of goods which in 2008 accounted for 99 per cent of Africa’s total exports to the USA, I found that the majority of the same countries had recorded sharp declines in 2018. For example, Nigeria’s exports dropped from $33.0 billion to $5.0 billion, that is by minus $28.0 billion; Algeria’s dropped from $18.9 to $2.2 billion, a loss of $14.3 billion and South Africa’s fell from $7.9 to 6.3 billion. About seven countries registered positive exports but the values in dollar terms were very low or less than $1.0 billion each. Kenya’s exports to the USA dropped from a peak of $1.6 billion in 2014 to $534.0 million in 2018. This data certainly confirms that the sharp decline in Africa’s exports from $109.2 billion in 2008 to $31.2 billion in 2018 was largely a result of the combination of factors coming from all the top twenty exporters.

They all show significant individual impact on the overall continental exports. One important explanation is that the majority of these countries are mineral and petroleum oil exporters that may have switched to China. As an example, Angola’s exports to China totalled $$18.6 billion in 2018 compared to $$1.7 billion to the USA. Yet, in 2000, Angola exported $3.7 billion to the USA compared to $1.8 billion to China. On the other hand, there may be other rationale why individual countries lessened their exports to the USA but the fact is that they did. But I think most of them have simply failed to face the challenge to utilize free market access due to domestic problems related to inability to produce tradeable products.

If you don’t export manufactured goods, you’re not trading

One of the objectives of AGOA was to help African countries to export value added products, in particular textiles and clothing. But events on the ground show that this is far from achieved. I agree with the second part of John Campbell’s conclusion about Africa in the quotation I provided earlier when he says, “That’s more of an Africa problem than an Obama problem.” The countries like Bangladesh and Viet Nam that face higher import tariffs in the USA are exporting more manufactured goods than Africa.
Viet Nam’s exports of manufactured goods to the USA of $43.2 billion is six-fold that of Africa’s $7.2 billion. Bangladesh, an Asian least developed country exports $5.6 billion or almost same as Africa. Trade between Africa and the USA may have contributed to job creation and improved economic activities. But dollar values for each country in manufactured goods, the most important part of trade are simply too low to effectively reduce poverty in Africa. South Africa, the largest producer of manufactured goods in Africa exported to the USA only $2.7 billion in 2018; Egypt $1.4 billion, Morocco $1.1 billion and the rest of the countries each less than $600million. An examination of Africa’s exports of textiles and clothing products to the USA equally shows disappointing performance.

Did Obama disappoint Africa?
No. Africa disappointed Obama. As I said earlier, most believe that Obama disappointed Africa.

Will Harris help grow Africa’s economy?

No. Unless a significant change takes place among African leaders, (and I see none in the near future), it’ll be the same if Kamara Harris wins presidency. I’m sure that today, Africa’s expectations are as high as they were when Obama became President. African leaders dream of a Harris presidency. But it means nothing if they cannot take advantage economically.
The change will only come when Africa begins to invest in building a different type of human capital. African leaders must sow seeds of cognitive function by investing in early child development, in particular when children are between 1 and five years. We have some Zambian experts who’re trying to champion this agenda and need government support. Look for Professor Kavwanga Yambayamba and listen for only 30 minutes what he has to say. Leaders of today may not benefit from this investment. But, they’ll forever be remembered as the great African leaders by future generations. Only then will Africa build a reasonable partnership with the USA, with or without black leadership.