By Edward Chisanga
I follow up on the excellent article published by Bertie Jacobs in the Lusaka Times of November 2, 2024, entitled, “What impact will the US election have on Africa?”
When Barack Obama, whose father was a black Kenyan and mother a white American became President of the USA in 2009, one African joked that Africans were more thrilled than the Americans. I was in a pub in Geneva, Switzerland, having a beer and watching football when a Kenyan living in the same town began dancing without any music. He certainly had nothing in his ears to suggest that he was listening to a mobile phone music.
Since I knew him, I approached him to ask why he was dancing without sound. He embarrassingly answered me, “You must be the only African in Geneva who has not heard the world’s news today.” When I asked what this milestone was, his sharp answer was that every African in the world especially those in the continent are all dancing to President Obama’s ascendancy to the highest office in the world.
I asked, “Why would that make me dance?” He retorted to humiliate me, “You know Obama is Kenyan, so the USA has a Kenyan President,” I answered back, “I’m aware that Obama was born of a Kenyan African father but am not aware that that made him Kenyan or African.” Standing his ground, he insisted, “No, he is not American because his father is Kenyan.”
As I clearly was not winning the fight, I diverted his attention and asked, “What really is at the heart of this conversation?” He turned to face one of his fellow Kenyans and shouted, “It is good for Kenya. It is good for Africa. Kenya will trade more with the USA. Africa will trade more with the USA and create more wealth for its citizens. After all, the USA is the largest export market that every country dreams to partner. Africa too does.” My humble answer was, “That may not be exactly correct.”
This Kenyan was not alone in making generalized claims. Many Africans, in particular leaders thought the same. They must have hoped that Obama would exempt them from honouring their governance and human rights global commitments. Anakwa Dwamena quotes a Zambian economist, Grieve Chelwa and says, “On the day of Obama’s inauguration, a cab driver in Kinshasa, in the Democratic Republic of Congo, told Grieve, “Since a black man is the president of USA, things are finally going to change for us black people.” He meant change for the better for he and other Africans. He further states, “The general sentiment was that Obama, whose grandfather was a cook for the British in Kenya, would have a personal investment in Africa.
Guy Scott, former President of Zambia is also quoted as saying, “Most people call him an American African instead of an African American.” John Campbell, America’s former Ambassador to Nigeria was quoted by Edward-Isaac Dovere of Politico, “That the President had a Kenyan father, many Africans seemed to think the was somehow going to be their president. When lo and behold he remained the president of the USA, they were disappointed. That’s more of an Africa problem than an Obama problem.” Years have passed since Obama left office and the main judgement from most people, at least the authors of articles that I have read about is something similar to Edward-Isaac Dovere’s summary: “Despite family ties to Kenya, Barack Obama has arguably done less for the continent than his predecessors.” In other words, Obama’s rule is far from matching Africa’s expectations.
The image in Figure 1 below does not reflect the Kenyan sentiments.
The image in Figure 1 below shows important statistical information about the trade partnership between Africa and the USA, in particular during the Presidency of Bill Clinton, George Bush and Barack Obama. For Africa, Clinton’s legacy is largely manifested in granting African countries duty free market access through the establishment of the Africa Growth Opportunities Act (AGOA) unilateral trade preferences which allows Africa’s most products, in particular textiles and clothing to be exported to the USA almost free of duty. Ideally, this gesture was meant to help Africa boost its industries in this sector in order to produce and export. During Bush’s period, from 2001-2009, we see a trending period of increased growth in exports in absolute values, from $20.1 billion in 2002 to $109.2 billion, in fact the highest peak.
When Obama took over in 2009, he found Africa’s exports in absolute value to the USA had receded to $57.3 billion. There was improvement to about $90 billion during his time, between 2010-2011. However, this was offset by a sharp decline down to about $30 billion when he left office in 2017. The unfortunate thing is that many people will look at the trend between the second highest peak of exports in 2011 and 2017 when Obama left office. This is a period I might refer to as Africa’s period of slowly but surely eroding trade relationship with the USA. While African Heads of State were asking the USA to make further extension for AGOA in 2018, to expire in 2025, the world was witnessing the lowest peak of the continent’s exports to the world’s largest market.
Over the years Africa, especially commodity countries have diversified exports to China but not diversified or upgraded products. If you remember, AGOA has conditions attached to it and these include mostly issues bordering on good governance, namely, establishment of market-based economy, rule of law, economic policies to reduce poverty, protection of internationally recognized worker rights, and efforts to combat corruption. Most of the fifty-five African countries have access to AGOA.
It was not Obama’s fault but that of Africa.
The main outstanding reason why Africa’s exports to the USA are declining is the structural problem of lack of supply and production of dynamic products. Market access for textiles and clothing products is largely unfulfilled while Bangladesh and other Asian countries that are blocked from that access wait at the doorstep hoping the USA would soon open for them. In a way, one would not be wrong to point out that by persistently asking for perpetual extension of AGOA, Africa has been tantalizing the USA for something it would not fulfil. The promise that extension would be followed by expanded exports will not be coming home soon.
Picking on Africa’s top twenty exporters of goods which in 2008 accounted for 99 per cent of Africa’s total exports to the USA, I found that the majority of the same countries had recorded sharp declines in 2018. For example, Nigeria’s exports dropped from $33.0 billion to $5.0 billion, that is by minus $28.0 billion; Algeria’s dropped from $18.9 to $2.2 billion, a loss of $14.3 billion and South Africa’s fell from $7.9 to 6.3 billion. About seven countries registered positive exports but the values in dollar terms were very low or less than $1.0 billion each. Kenya’s exports to the USA dropped from a peak of $1.6 billion in 2014 to $534.0 million in 2018. This data certainly confirms that the sharp decline in Africa’s exports from $109.2 billion in 2008 to $31.2 billion in 2018 was largely a result of the combination of factors coming from all the top twenty exporters.
They all show significant individual impact on the overall continental exports. One important explanation is that the majority of these countries are mineral and petroleum oil exporters that may have switched to China. As an example, Angola’s exports to China totalled $$18.6 billion in 2018 compared to $$1.7 billion to the USA. Yet, in 2000, Angola exported $3.7 billion to the USA compared to $1.8 billion to China. On the other hand, there may be other rationale why individual countries lessened their exports to the USA but the fact is that they did. But I think most of them have simply failed to face the challenge to utilize free market access due to domestic problems related to inability to produce tradeable products.
If you don’t export manufactured goods, you’re not trading
One of the objectives of AGOA was to help African countries to export value added products, in particular textiles and clothing. But events on the ground show that this is far from achieved. I agree with the second part of John Campbell’s conclusion about Africa in the quotation I provided earlier when he says, “That’s more of an Africa problem than an Obama problem.” The countries like Bangladesh and Viet Nam that face higher import tariffs in the USA are exporting more manufactured goods than Africa.
Viet Nam’s exports of manufactured goods to the USA of $43.2 billion is six-fold that of Africa’s $7.2 billion. Bangladesh, an Asian least developed country exports $5.6 billion or almost same as Africa. Trade between Africa and the USA may have contributed to job creation and improved economic activities. But dollar values for each country in manufactured goods, the most important part of trade are simply too low to effectively reduce poverty in Africa. South Africa, the largest producer of manufactured goods in Africa exported to the USA only $2.7 billion in 2018; Egypt $1.4 billion, Morocco $1.1 billion and the rest of the countries each less than $600million. An examination of Africa’s exports of textiles and clothing products to the USA equally shows disappointing performance.
Did Obama disappoint Africa?
No. Africa disappointed Obama. As I said earlier, most believe that Obama disappointed Africa.
Will Harris help grow Africa’s economy?
No. Unless a significant change takes place among African leaders, (and I see none in the near future), it’ll be the same if Kamara Harris wins presidency. I’m sure that today, Africa’s expectations are as high as they were when Obama became President. African leaders dream of a Harris presidency. But it means nothing if they cannot take advantage economically.
The change will only come when Africa begins to invest in building a different type of human capital. African leaders must sow seeds of cognitive function by investing in early child development, in particular when children are between 1 and five years. We have some Zambian experts who’re trying to champion this agenda and need government support. Look for Professor Kavwanga Yambayamba and listen for only 30 minutes what he has to say. Leaders of today may not benefit from this investment. But, they’ll forever be remembered as the great African leaders by future generations. Only then will Africa build a reasonable partnership with the USA, with or without black leadership.
I expect an increased push for the LGBTQ+ agenda on Africa in Kamala Harris wins!
This is the exact stupid mentality making Africa more poor the writer above is talking of. Instead of you getting down to manufacture even a tooth pick and export to the US. You are here busy musterbsting with your LGBT hallucinations.
@Esther
Spot On !!!!!!
This how stupid Africans are, they spend Sundays discussing America.
No American woke up discussing Zambia.
It’s either having breakfast reading newspaper on porch or running keeping fit and happy.
Look at you, discussing gays on a Sunday morning.
I expect your off spring will be more educated and better informed than you
Ai wena Chisanga all this verbose about the next American president’s race? Haven’t we learnt that means nothing in the white house? One person can’t change anything in the US. May be in Zambia.
US will still be friends with genocide addicts in Israel, enemies with Chinese and Russians, exploiters of a disorganized Africa, exporters of strange American cultures called lgbtq. In short nothing will change
@Tikki and Esther, Mayo Papa is just manifesting her cynical expectations of “change” in the West.
It’s not her topic and hasn’t wandered off ba Nostradamus
But Kamala Harris had a Jamaican father and Indian mother unlike Barack Obama with a father of Kenyan descent. Shouldn’t it be the Jamaicans and Indians to be more euphoric about a Harris presidency?
Dr Mulenga, I don’t know who should be euphoric besides women.
Jamaica has no natives. So when you hear someone say they are Jamaican, their race most likely could be negroid (or black African) or caucasoid (European).
Or, like Bob Marley, a mixture of the two. Kamala’s father was black. All blacks in the carribean are from Africa.
Yeah, the original Jamaicans (Red Indians) were expunged by “civilised” invaders called Europeans. These were the Taíno, all of whom are extinct 500 years after the arrival of Columbus who also brought small pox to the region.
Warped thinking, how does skin color of a President steer development in Africa? I would have been remotely persuaded had it been an issue of a Democrat or Republican President
How much did Africa benefit when President Obama was in power?They have a fixed support program for Africa whether democrats
Or Republican in power.
Only someone who only reads fantasy books thinks a black president can be beneficial to Africa. The USA is run by a system of invisible interest groups. Obama was more white than George W Bush when he occupied the White House
There was no scandal during his tenure… no he’s not an angel… he’s only aware that one wrong step he would end up in lion’s den. Everything he, he did it with this group in his mind. Changing the way capitalists deal with Africa would have lost him the second term.
Someone should point out that US policy is not decided by the president one morning and then implemented by minions. It’s not like in Africa kkkkk
With that logic Hopefully a lighter skin colour will be our president next time around and all nonsense to finally end >>>> YIPPEEEEEEEE
1. Kamala Harris is not black or african. She is Indian, Irish, Jewish.
2. Kamala Harris is dull, and is not in charge of anything. She is a puppet of the deep state which controls america.
3. Kamala Harris supports evils like abortion, legalising drugs, lgbt rubbish and the like. If you have any morality, you can’t support her.
4. Depending on foreigners to develop your nation or continent is as retarded as it can get. This is why africa remains poor. Busy looking for a saviour to coke from Europe or America or China instead of looking to yourselves.
Her father was from the Caribbeans and was of black decent.
You need to dig a bit deeper. That’s the narrative that’s been put out. But it’s false. He ancestors where actually slave owners
@Mwata: from where do you get this fake infor you want to feed everyone on? Kamala isnt Jewish or Irish. Her husband is a Jew. She and her father are Baptist. Her mother who has relatives in Kamwala is Hindu. Baptists are what rules amongst the blacks in the South. And surely you expect a “dull” bloke to become Attorney General in the US?
@Nostradamus – In Africa we are more engrossed in matters that benefit us least. African Supportes of UK and European premier league teams some times hark each other, dare say, kill one another over their supporting mentality – benefits of these teams has little or nothing to do with Africa.
Agreed with Nostradumus,Dejavu & MunaDekhane. I would only add that the real African Americans (descendants of the enslaved Africans) are the ones who have really been defrauded by by Obama (Kenya + white American) & Kamala (india+ Irish +jamaica). The black folks over there have got enough problems of their own and these impostors have not helped matters and only complicated there situation a d diluted there struggles by thrusting the woke lgbtq on black people. But agreed let’s worry about loadshedding, exchange rates, tribalism, corruption, nepotism cholera etc
“…..Market access for textiles and clothing products is largely unfulfilled while Bangladesh and other Asian countries that are blocked from that access wait at the doorstep hoping the USA would soon open for them. …”
We as Africans are just useless……….
Stealing, poor work ethic and laziness………
But very , very advanced in sueing each other, interpreting the constitution and social media reporting……..
Forwadee 2031……..
Spaka like lilo, conveniently forgets what makes Africans especially him useless. With his rural bweengwa mentality, he is a tribalist, currently free Africa’s biggest enemy.
You can’t go anywhere forward with the archaic thinking of a tribalist. Look at how your global counterparts have progressed having moved from tribes to nations. Just look at China and South Asia. Even your colonial master Britain had tribes such as Celts, corieltauvi, dumnoni saxons etc
Even your colonial master Britain had tribes such as Celts, corieltauvi, dumnoni saxons etc but they moved on and embraced each other to focus on the better horizons of national goals.
If iam president of Zambia I would be setting myself the goals of a railine from Chipata to Mwinilunga, a highway from Kawambwa through Mongu to Siavonga. Make it easy for Zambians to mingle for commerce, science, tech and business ideas
@She Bull Kenny… even neighbors Tanzania have done away with parasites called chiefs….. you can see how much they have left us in terms of progress.
We don’t need to worry about the outcome of US elections…we have copper, Sugilite..wildlife, the mighty Victoria falls etc….that’s enough to do away with being dependent on the USA and IMF to spoon feed us…i like the new President of Botswana. Lets wait and see if he is a man of his words because Politicians say one thig and do exactly the opposite. Just like the Supreme leader Ayatollah Hakainde Hichilema
“RESOURCE RICH” BUT ABSOLUTELY “CASH POOR”
@ independent
We can easily convert our resources into cash…..its that simple..but we want the white man to come and convert our resources into cash on our behalf
@ independent
We can easily convert our resources into cash…..its that simple..but we want the white man to come and convert our resources into cash on our behalf
@ independent
We can easily convert our resources into cash…..its that simple..but we want the white man to come and convert our resources into cash on our behalf
Thank you, Mr. Edward Chisanga, for this insightful article. It raises profound questions about why African economies underperform and why we often struggle to think independently and focus on self-sustainability. I will be tuning into Professor Kavwanga Yambayamba’s podcast on child development.
I recently had the privilege of listening to and watching Episode 1 of the Child Development Podcast, which offered invaluable insights. Although the topic isn’t new to me, having a knowledgeable expert who understands the nuances of African society and the challenges we face in developing human capital made the discussion particularly resonant. It’s refreshing to hear perspectives that acknowledge the unique cultural context and obstacles hindering our continent’s progress. I look forward to engaging with more episodes. Zikomo ba Prof. and Mr. Chisanga!
@Swahili for the unity of Africa
If being white was one of the Qualifications for running for the President of the USA both Obama and Kamala would have claimed to be white….FACT….they criticized Trump when he questioned Kamala’s race….as for me i know a black person when I see one….you can’t just identify yourself as black just for Politcal gain…thats fraud….
People don’t always get identified by how they look. Take a look at Mariah Carey and tell me her race.
@Spaka
Yes thank God for Google now every Jim and jack sounds like they know what they’re talking about…a lot of Social Media journalist…a lot of social media lawyers…
That’s just the way of Society’s progress. Previously, having information that your rivals didn’t have gave you an edge. Now the competition is about what you are doing with the information you have. Yeah, computers are making the information easily available.
F*cked up African mentality. We say we don’t want homosexuality, transgenderism, abortions and all such evils as practiced in the west, especially America, but you embrace proponents of such practices. Kamala is a far left lunatic who promotes babies to be killed even after birth, mother can still decide whether she want the child or not. Such people must not be allowed near Africa, because the are using their dark money to entice poverty strikes Africans
Choosing between Trump and Harris is like Choosing to be devoured by either a Crocodile or a hippo….they’re all the same just different evil agendas….we remember Obama as the one who orchestrated the killing of colonel Gaddafi the Pan African leader
He!he! Anonymous- as a resident of Kabompo who has lived very close to the river, I will tell you that I will choose the hippo because he could miss me and if I play dead he may not follow up. When crocodile gets you in the water forget Leopards Hill. You will certainly be his Hungry Lion snack
Africa’s economy will only grow when Africans themselves start mining ,oil production,manufacturing trains,computers and myriad consumer goods for exports.Right now 99% of the above is being done for them by outsiders .
I agree with 95% of the comments above that neither USA, Kamala herself or DJT are for Africa’s benefit but i dare say Harris is a lesser evil than Donnie on that matter. Trump sees Africa,Haiti and Latin Americans as useless sh*th@les .
Karmala is half Jamaican and half Indian.
She has absolutely no ties to Africa .
Dont kid yourselves.
“If a black person becomes USA President, then Africa’s economy will grow”
Dream On