By Sishuwa Sishuwa
The answer is that, at this stage, I do not know. There are so many variables that are yet to be determined, though it is fair to say that as of today, many people in Zambia may not know who they will vote for in the 2026 election, but they already know who they will not vote for.
I am not persuaded, however, by the bold assertion being made by some that President Hakainde Hichilema will be re-elected. Such assumptions are, in my view, based on wishful thinking, dressed in certainties, rather than concrete data and a careful consideration of the unfolding political landscape. This is because the empirical evidence, based on the current political landscape, simply does not support such a conclusion.
In a sense, Hichilema recognises the changing political tide against him and this might explain why he has devised several ugly strategies to help him retain power. These include weakening the political opposition through the abuse of the police (e.g. endless arrests, court cases, and repeated denial of their right to public assembly) and destroying the main opposition party using the Registrar of Societies (I am aware that the government recently changed the names of PF office bearers from Miles Sampa to Robert Chawinga etc, with the planned intention of expelling both Miles, followed by a by-election in Matero, and Edgar Lungu).
Other strategies are packing the electoral commission with ruling party supporters to possibly help manipulate the election; and packing the Constitutional Court with regime-friendly judges – Hichilema is about to appoint three more judges after he got rid of three appointed by his predecessor to create room for more of his own appointees – who may potentially uphold a rigged election.
The narrative that there is no alternative to unseat Hichilema is largely peddled by supporters of the ruling party to make themselves feel better and ignores the extent to which the president has gone to destroy the opposition in the last three years. If there is no credible opposition, then why the hell is Hichilema so desperate to destroy the PF?! In my view, this narrative is deliberately designed to achieve two objectives.
The first is to help create knowledge of or identify the person seen by many voters as a suitable alternative so that the ruling party may target such a person for destruction, as they have done with other opposition leaders. Nearly all opposition leaders have been arrested under the UPND on a variety of what appears to be trumped-up charges. If evidence emerged today showing that many voters are gravitating towards a person named HaHa for presidency, it is not inconceivable that all manner of charges or other accusations will be brought against the said HaHa.
The second motive behind the creation of the narrative that there is no opposition is to psyche the minds of Zambians into accepting a possible flawed Hichilema victory. I won’t be surprised if the authorities decided to ban parallel vote tabulation ahead of the 2026 election! Such is their desperation! If the UPND plans to rig the election, then Zambians are being prepared to accept the results using the notion that the outcome was a foregone conclusion since there was no opposition.
It is quite telling that both the UPND leadership and supporters are expressing confidence that voters will re-elect their party not because it has delivered its campaign promises but because there is no opposition. The idea that voters are so in love with Hichilema that they will vote for him, even if he fails to meet their aspirations, is quite insulting. What has he actually done to get re-elected?
In my view, Hichilema is politically insecure, and he and his supporters know that they are in trouble. When it comes to the bigger national issues, such as safeguarding the country’s cherished democracy, getting the best out of Zambia’s mineral wealth, respecting the constitution and the rule of law, fighting corruption beyond rhetoric, genuine promotion of national unity and equitable distribution of appointments to public service positions, sorting out the cost-of-living crisis and the deplorable conditions of life for most Zambians, Hichilema has, so far, lamentably failed.
The frustrating thing for the ruling party is that they do not know, for now, who will be Hichilema’s main political opponent in 2026 and the role that former president Edgar Lungu – yes, he remains a factor, just like Rupiah Banda was in the 2015 election – will play in influencing the outcome.
In a sense, Hichilema is in a dilemma or catch-22: to use the courts to block Lungu and risk being defeated by a candidate endorsed by the excluded former president, or to let Lungu stand and either risk the embarrassment of being defeated by his predecessor or hope that Lungu would split the opposition vote and consequently allow Hichilema to snatch a close victory?
The precarious situation in which Hichilema finds himself today is a self-inflicted problem. Hichilema had a lot of goodwill and all he needed to do was to deliver or make serious efforts to deliver on his campaign promises, and take the people, from whom his executive authority derives, into his confidence where there are challenges. Unfortunately, he has messed up big time.
What might help Hichilema is the disunity of the opposition. If opposition parties are able to put country first, work together, and field a common and credible presidential candidate in 2026, then we might as well start calling Hichilema ‘former president of Zambia’.
Do I regret voting for Hichilema in 2021? No. As I have argued previously, the best thing about electing Hichilema president was that we are no longer distracted by his threat or potential to be better than those who came before him and we can now start looking for suitable, if better, alternatives. If Hichilema did not become President of Zambia, we would have lived with some degree of guilty for not giving him the chance to govern. We could have also succumbed to certain narratives that suggest that some regions of Zambia can provide better leaders than others.
To some extent, it is not regrettable that the man got the opportunity to lead. Now we know that in order to develop, Zambia does not need a given region or an individual from a particular ethnic group in State House. The country simply needs competent men and women who are patriots, have a feasible plan, and are committed to restoring the nation’s dignity, where they come from notwithstanding.
In a certain weird and perverted sense, it is good that Zambians gave Hichilema a chance to reveal who he truly is. The Chewa-speaking people of Zambia have a saying that “The best way of proving the potency of a man who claims that he is able to achieve an erection is for the woman to undress for him.” In August 2021, Zambians undressed for Hichilema after a decade-and-half of claiming that he is capable of taking them to greater heights!
Long winded and rambling
To think some want him in our political area
Just show how gullible some are
No brainer, the winner will be ECL because his prices of goods and services were better for the common man. Blame him for caderism but that caderism story does not put food on our tables and is stale news now . Mealie meal was less than K150. No politics involved here
Sishuwa stop chickening out. It will be you!!
Or John Sangwa.
Lungu, under what party?
The signs for competence are currently not looking good. I hope the Con-Court will soon decide Lungu’s fate so we can move on and start looking at other alternatives…
Just like President Mulyokela has put it, HH has become a very dangerous driver. HH and the UPND are confident that he’ll win the next election not because he’s delivered but that there are no strong opponents. He’s invested much in weakening or annihilation of opponents and infiltration of the Judiciary and Election Commission. HH will leave a very weak and divided nation. He doesn’t deserve a second term.
You are absolutely correct with no alternatives
Someone metioned SS and Sangwa This just highlights how desparate we are ?
Constructive critisim is now out of the window and not to mention Freedom of speech
I don’t agree with sir, systems have a ways of taking care of themselves.. what happens in the past has bearing in the future.. jst like politicians they no how to fix each other, it’s now common knowledge that politicians are selfish pipo and have no regards for pipo who vote for them, alot has been unearthed and alot lot of Zambians no what is happening behind closed DOORS.. I am here by calling upon all Zambians to remain steadfast.. WE ARE WATCHING THE SPACE
HH will not win unless he blocks Lungu or if Lungu is blocked he rigs the election… come to think of it, someone stronger than Lungu could emerge just a a year before elections as long as HH doesn’t create cases against this ” front runner”
“…..If there is no credible opposition, then why the hell is Hichilema so desperate to destroy the PF?!….”
Why should the investigation and arrests of criminals be stoped because they are the opposition……???.
All those who committed crimes in the previous administration will be investigated and arrested if found wanting…….what is difficult about this ???
The discontent felt now is compounded by load shedding………
Beginning next year we expect to see measures to ease the cost of living………
Only the tribal supremacists and PF clique think HH will lose, the rest of normal Zambians know where we have come from……….
Fo…….Fo…….Forwadee 2031
There’s tribalism here… HH was voted across all tribes while his people as usual gave him 101%…..so who’s tribal.
The ones who are tribal are the tribal supremacists like yourself, who……..
Have not accepted HH even from time in opposition because of nothing no other than his tribe, or he is from the wrong tribe………
The other group who are tribal are the thives who want another bite at state coffers……..
HH has a lot of support from all tribes of Zambians, except those 2 groups……..
And people of the South did not vote for the drunk fraud convict lungu for apparent reasons……..they are more intelligent than you thought………you wanted them to vote for lungu ?????
Forwardee 2031…….
Fo Fo Forwardee 2026
HH has gone too far! How can a real African ask a woman in public to stand up and as her: CHIPO ARE YOU PREGNANT. Can someone advise him certain things are taboo and must be handled in a special way.
That was very insulting. Does HH have any manners? In Africa especially the woman tells her partner she is pregnant before anyone else. Was HH expecting her to say I am pregant? Women’s groups should protest.
No smoke without fire. A woman has a choice of terminating a pregnancy. She can choose to tell her man about it or she can only deal with it with her doctor. Ubuntu demands sensibleness from the president as he desperately wants to exonerate himself. Do you remember that White House stint of Lewinsky and Clinton? The issue was redhot that it almost cost him his office.
Its dangerous for a learned person to write opinion that can back fire in the near future. Arrests of criminal offenders, investigations of allegations of corruption, convictions of corruption cases and enforcement of the rule of law, is part of good governance. Disunity among opposition parties can not be attributed to HH, if anything it tells Zambians the calibre of opposition parties in the nation.
I respect your great opinion but let’s go back to the evidence and it is evident that President HH will win and more than in 2021 especially from rural zambia. I had a chat with a few chiefs that support President HH with evidence and that is what Lusaka online analysis misses. Blessed weekend
Chiefs? My foot!
Evident?? How? Zambia never does opinion polls so how can anyone know who will win in 2026. Are you guys witchdoctors throwing bones to tell the results of 2026?
Confucious.. Rely on polls at your own peril.
In 2024 US elections, pollsters were perplexed how wrong they were. Most of them predicted a razor thin margin win in a supposed tight race. But Trump got a landslide in both popular and electoral college votes.
In 2021, Akainde swept to a victory with results disputing polls that said something else. Ask Neo Simutanyi if he ever was right on previous samplings in Zambia’s elections.
@mzambia So you want to do predictions blindly? I’d rather have a poll than whim based predictions that are just campaigning tools
Shishuwa is a lungu lover and a PF sympathiser
A biased ass hole
You absoultely Right and always stating the obvious,,,
He appears to have lots of spare time and loves his own write ups
OH WELCOME BACK !!!
Since when?
Are you guys from a Nursery? Anyone older will know how Sishuwa used to undress Lungu when he was in State House. If you cant remember then you are too young to vote. It seems you have run out of mud to throw at Sishuwa and are now going for cheap and unreasoned out stereotypes: “He loves Lungu” No he is not scared of those in power!! like you
SS IS a NOVALIST
AT the same time name a lawyer who doesn’t lie to save his client
we still a long way off from having a stable credible GRZ
Somebody said it. Not even the swing state of Dundumwezi will save them in 2026
No doubt there will now be 2 years of intense and ultimately useless talking until 2026. Nice work if you can get it
Iwe Fuelgauge either you pay copyright or leave those names to the Lamba. Eastern Province names are: Belt or Beluti, Button, Heavy, and the likes
Nanga Speedometer, Fanbelt, Flywheel? Eastern power…
Why has Zambia been in a continuous state of campaigning from 12 August 2021 to date… All people talk about is 2026 elections, I feel it’s the most talked about yet to happen election.Some of you won’t even be alive in 2026…..