SWAPO’s drop in polls – could this be a death knell to struggle politics?

As Namibians headed to the polls earlier this week, SWAPO the liberation movement birthed by struggle luminaries, Sam Nujoma, and Andimba Toivo Ya Toivo among others, is seen struggling to hold on to power.

In fact, one outcome is certain about the Presidential elections: Uncertainty. In the 2019 Presidential polls, its then candidate Hage Geingob polled a measly 56% down from a high of 87% that he bagged in the 2014 polls. If you are contrarian, the easy bet is on the ruling party’s candidate Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah squeezing through the 51% mark. This could just be enough to see her return the Presidency to her party. However, the most probable outcome is a re-run between Ndaitwa and the Independent Patriots for Change’s (IPC) Panduleni Itula.

Flashback to the 90’s when the affable Nujoma towered over Namibia’s political landscape, it was unthinkable then that SWAPO’s political hegemony could be threatened by Itula – considered to be a political rookie by some pundits. How times have changed. This is 2024. It has indeed been a year of reckoning for liberation movements spread across Southern
Africa.

Crossing into Namibia’s neighbour, the Botswana Democratic Party’s (BDP) Mokgweetsi Masisi recently tumbled to a crushing defeat by Duma Boko’s Umbrella for Democratic Change. It’s ironic that former head of state, General Ian Khama – whose father founded the BDP, chose to celebrate Boko’s victory by dancing on the BDP’s political grave. He played a
critical role in de-campaigning Masisi.

In Mozambique, it’s no longer ‘Aluta Continua’ for Frelimo. The party is battling to stay in power after its candidate Daniel Chapo won a disputed election – a development that’s led to civil unrest in the country. Across the Limpopo into South Africa, the ANC lost its majority rule in the May 2024 Presidential polls prompting the liberation movement to co-opt a cocktail of opposition parties into a Government of National Unity (GNU). Elsewhere in Angola, President Joao Lourenco is barely managing to keep the MPLA’s political fortunes afloat.

One could well argue that ZANU PF’s hold on political power in Zimbabwe is tenuous. The less said about Kenneth Kaunda’s UNIP the better. UNIP was buried 34 years ago. All that remains of its history, is a tombstone erected at its head office named Freedom House.

While Lazarus Chakwera, like his biblical namesake has managed to resurrect the Malawi Congress Party (MCP) from its grave, this party is hardly a reincarnation of Kamuzu Banda’s once mighty MCP. To be precise, Tanzania’s Chama Chama Pinduzi (CCM) is the only liberation party in the SADC region that is managing to sustain its electoral fortunes.

What does the future hold for SWAPO after elections
Back to Namibia. It’s also important to observe that the one persistent denominator in all the explanations proffered by pundits as reasons for the waning fortunes of liberation parties is their inability to shed meaningless struggle ideologies – a factor that has somewhat inhibited their ability to transform to modern political formations. This has been one of their Achilles heels.

So, what does SWAPO’s projected poor showing portend for its future? It’s hard to tell. What is certain though is that the drop in electoral votes will certainly diminish the party’s legitimacy and ultimately loosen its stranglehold on Namibian politics. And history has taught us that once a liberation movement plunges into a downward spiral, it’s proven difficult to recover lost ground. Has SWAPO fallen into this rut? The election results will tell. It’s
worrying though that the country’s unemployment rate currently stands at 20.3%.

For a country whose population is estimated at 3 million, this is an indictment on the failures of the SWAPO led government. In addition to experiencing high poverty levels, Namibia’s economy is barely creating jobs . It is also lagging in provision of basic services, factors which will significantly influence the electoral outcome.

You may wonder, what happened to Namibia’s promise espoused by its founding leader Sam Nujoma? It’s difficult to put one finger on a weak pulse. There are a myriad of factors that have conspired against the realisation of this promise – these can’t be discussed in a single write-up. That said, and purely for nostalgic and selfish reasons, I’m prepared to go
against the grain. Namibia’s best path to socio-economic growth can best be guided by SWAPO – it’s a better devil if such a description ever exists. However, my endorsement comes with a caveat.

Post elections, the party has to seriously introspect and ask itself hard questions about its relevance to the country’s political and socio-economic trajectory. But before introspection,there is still the small matter of voting and then vote counting.

By Chimwemwe Mwanza