By Kapya Kaoma
This question is on the minds of many Zambians, yet the answer remains elusive. Zambian political history suggests a grim fate for any party that loses power: it risks extinction. This history has emboldened UPND political commentators and insiders alike, using it as ammunition in their organizational strategy: “The PF will never reclaim power; history proves it!” Yet, the PF may stand a stronger chance of unseating the UPND in the upcoming 2026 elections than many are willing to acknowledge.
Dismissing this possibility ignores one key factor. It’s uncertain whether Zambian politics will continue to support an ever-growing number of political parties. What is certain, however, is that the UPND won’t vanish even if President Hakainde Hichilema loses in 2026. Should that happen, he would undoubtedly seek to run again in 2031 on the UPND ticket, as long as Southern Province—and its ethnic dominance—exists. Like many political movements worldwide, the party’s strength is rooted in its ethnic identity, allowing it to remain a formidable presence without the need for widespread organization elsewhere in the nation.
In contrast, the PF lacks a defined tribal or ethnic stronghold. Instead, its resilience lies in what social movement theorists call “laden structures”—existing institutions in various provinces, a legacy left by its founder, Michael Sata. The PF government excelled at establishing local chapters, a strategy that ultimately engulfed the MMD long before it captured Plot 1.
Moreover, the PF has refused to retreat quietly into the shadows after its 2021 electoral defeat. The political witch hunts and often politically motivated prosecutions under Hichilema’s administration have inadvertently forged the PF’s identity as a persecuted party. This witch hunt not only fosters solidarity within its ranks but also shapes public perception of Hichilema’s regime.
Hichilema’s repeated attacks on certain ethnic groups, particularly the Bembas and Easterners, have fueled further resentment among substantial segments of the electorate. Adding insult to injury, many voters from the PF base have noted that they were left out of agricultural assistance schemes that benefited UPND strongholds, providing fertile ground for the PF to exploit ethnic grievances in rural areas.
The economic situation has further played into the PF’s hands, with Hichilema’s once-promising campaign focused on economic reform now overshadowed by its own pitfalls. Faced with soaring inflation and crippling debt, Hichilema has backpedaled on nearly all his campaign commitments, contributing to a steep decline in his political popularity.
The return of former president Edgar Lungu to active politics has sent shockwaves through Hichilema’s administration, triggering a sense of urgency and panic. Rather than allowing time to prepare for a potential rematch in 2026, Hichilema has resorted to using law enforcement strategies to neutralize his opponents. This has resulted in a series of humiliations for the Lungu family and a rising sense of sympathy and support for Lungu in the public sphere. While some legal actions may be justified, many perceive them as mere “mingalatos” designed to stifle the PF’s resurgence.
In doing so, Hichilema has unwillingly aided the PF’s reorganization efforts in forging alliances with smaller parties. It remains uncertain whether these alliances will endure until election day. Should the economic situation improve dramatically, Hichilema could reestablish his political footing. Yet, the harsh reality remains: the PF has effectively painted Hichilema as a failure. Thus, they stand a better chance of regaining power—if they can present a compelling candidate.
Aware of this precarious situation, Hichilema will likely do everything in his power to halt the PF’s momentum. Nevertheless, it appears that, for now, the toothpaste is already out of the tube. No wonder the UPND is now retreating to the tactics of pre 1990 “one-party regime”—forcing civil servants, school children, and ordinary people to attend its political rallies!
Emotional article….this is what has messed up PF, Zambians have woken up and don’t tolerate politics of insults and propaganda. As long as why me, propaganda mwamba and lungu are PF’s agenda then forget…..
Zambians are not going back to PF. Especially Lungu PF, forget. Akabwelela numa kalalya!
Get your facts right HH has never made any attack on any tribe, rather just concentrate on the economic parameters. Dollar is getting to K30 and rising, high inflation is the order of the day. If HH can just honor his promises on the USD and I’m proving the economy he will have our votes but otherwise it has been such a betrayal to see how savings have become eroded and the country has proper direction on where it is going with the economy. Even an auto pilot is better than the economic managers who in any kind managerial set up based on performance would be asked to leave their offices for those that are more capable.
The problem with cadres is that they think everyone is a cadre! Zambia is not UPND, and people will vote. If they voted out MMD and PF, what will stop them from vomiting the Liar in Chief? Sorry, I meant Mr. Failure in Chief.
But then who will be our President? When I look at the current opposition noone gives me the impression they are better than HH. Just like when I looked at Lungu’s tenure I saw none of the opposition as being fit for Presidency. And I have been proved right. It has been from one Kawayawaya to another. Right now we have someone in office but we are leaderless. The nation is crying for a leader! Not a ruler!!
I ask IS UPND PUTTING ANOTHER NAME FORWARD ????
Just a question people what if this year we have a bumper harvest that will force the meal mill price go down as per law of demand and already it looks like the prices of fuel is likely to come down by June 2025 due to intervention made which has resulted to half $113 to $ 54 per metric ton.
Suppose also the water levels improves in Kariba dam by June 2025 what message will the opposition have because their campaign has been around this.
Anyway we are watching the space
What if ?
What if Kariba doesnt fill to even 40% What if loadshedding doest end
How will we know the truth with elections next year when it’s obvious all prices will come down
to attract voters only to normalise upwards after elections 2026
People should remember the people who undermined President Sata and make no mistake.
Make no mistake. It is forward.
“…..In contrast, the PF lacks a defined tribal or ethnic stronghold….”
That is not true…….the PFs strong hold is the Bemba line and to a lesser extent the easterners……..
PF only lost some of the bemba strong hold because lungu was one of the worst presidents………ever
As for UPND , as someone says above, the rain and economic gods seem to be favouring HH going forward, though……….
Even as things stand , the majority of Zambians are sensible and remember were we are from with PF , and would vote for HH
UPND now needs to get lungu and the tonse alliance on the back foot by asking them to explain how lungu amassed so much wealth……….
Like the faith musonda millions , the miraculous declared wealth to kw21 million of lungu from peanuts in 18 months
FWD2031
Shouldn’t HH set the trend/example by being transparent about HIS sources of income? such as his [apparent] extensive shareholdings in key companies in key industries?
ECL Lungu;Amidst a pool of trainable; intelligent and high potential ministers such as Chitalu Chilufya, Edify Hamukale; Miles Sampa; Wilbur Simuusa etc Lungu chose seventy year old Nkandu who is older than him as a running mate vice president.. He was not looking for a successor but a timid female wh can never disagree with him on anythin..
Zambia is the real Africa indeed
You are goimg to get a big shock !! whether ECL stands or NOT Big crowds are going to attend the rallies where he is a guest speaker and despite what you or I think millions still love him.
Like Donald Trump?????
The author is gravely mistaken if he thinks there is rising sympathy and support for lungu due to perceived persecution. On the contrary people are wondering why it’s taking so long to jail Lungu’s thieving family and lackeys because this is the only consolation they can get since they can’t jail lungu himself because of his immunity.
Why do people loathe poverty?
EASTERNERS ARE SLOW THINKERS SUCH AS THEY CONTUNED VOTING FOR UNIP. IS IT BECAUSE OF EATING BAKOLWE?