The Centre for Trade Policy and Development (CTPD) is concerned about the potential negative spillover effects on Zambia’s economy resulting from the ongoing trade war between China and the United States of America (USA). The two countries are
locked in a trade war that has seen both sides impose tariffs of over 100 percent on goods imported from the other— potentially causing the growth of the Chinese economy to slow down. This, in turn, may negatively impact Zambia’s economy which trades in
significant volumes with China.
The USA is the third largest importer of Chinese commodities (importing 14.8 per cent of China’s $3.4 trillion worth of global export in 2023). The US imports major commodities from China include electric batteries, heaters, motor vehicle parts and accessories,broadcasting equipment and computers. China in turn is one of Zambia’s biggest trading partners, only second from Switzerland. In 2024, Zambia’s exports to China stood at 21 percent or USD 2.4 billion. The majority of products that Zambia exports to China are mineral products that include copper, Sulphur and earth stones.
CTPD is concerned that as the trade war rages on, both China and the US will experience a significant reduction in trade volumes consequently hurting the two economies. Consequently, this can affect Zambia exports to China in several ways.
Firstly, China may directly reduce imports of copper and other minerals which it uses as a raw material in the production of motor vehicles and other electronics. Secondly, a sluggish growth in China’s economy has consequences that spill to its trading partners in ways that may not be easily predicted. Zambia’s narrow export profile may further expose it to higher risks. Moreover, the country’s exports is largely composed of raw materials of which over 70 percent are minerals. If China reduces demand for copper, prices will go down and Zambia’s mining sector will be hit hard.
CTPD calls on government to vigorously pursue policies that priorities value addition to minerals as well as agricultural commodities in order to broaden, not only the scope of goods but also the demand for Zambia’s products. CTPD further calls on the government to provide support to farmers and other stakeholders looking to trade through the Africa Continental Free Trade Agreement as this will provide an alternative avenue for foreign exchange earnings.
Issued by:
Barnabas Mwale (Mr)
Trade and Investment Researcher: Centre for Trade Policy and Development
(CTPD)
This is nonsensical and typical of dependency syndrome. China has always been an all weather friend to Zambia until our remotely controlled leader auctioned us to the West and the US. Instead of apologising, they are looking for excuses. You sided with the wrong people and now our economy will fall because of the impact of China on the US not the other way round. Zambia however, could benefit in striking good deals and exploiting the huge vacuum left by the US on Chinese technology which Western countries wouldn’t dare share with the likes of Zambia. I say look at opportunities not charity.
The China-US trade war is nonsense dreams of a clueless man who bankrupted himself six times.Zambia shouldn’t be worried by these delusions.
With or without trade war Zambia has always
Been not doing well economy wise.lets not
Blame the wars for our problems.
This is an opportunity for Zambia and Africa. Invite the Chinks to set up shop in Zambia and export therefrom at low tariffs! A win-win scenario.
Yes,and another upside is that a slump in world production will mean a slump in demand for oil.Low demand for oil translates into lower prices of the commodity.Zambia could get some benefits from the trade war between the US and China
That will be the excuse in 2026
Well written article………
With the slowdown of chinas economy……….
China will be looking to offload over produced goods at low prices , as they adjust their markets……this could be seen as good or bad………
Factories like that new battery factory in Zambia might feel the pressure with out government help…….
Also as both countries currencies are low, Zambia economists should take advantage…….
We are here
FWD2041
No mention of Trump tariffs on Zambia, has the author not considered this. USA is barely a trading partner anyway, just ignore the man. Maybe turn the US Embassy into a hotel, such a great piece of real estate
I think the USA and China will eventually make a deal, too much to lose on both sides………
However , if that does not happen, as Chinese factories close, there will be a spike in Chinese labour to Africa,………
The Chinese labour influence in Africa has been positive, as labour standards are forced to compete with high Chinese standards ……
I also think Chinese integrate better than Indians ????
Should Zambia take advantage of this labour immigration ??
Maybe if GRZ leverages it into creating manufacturing mini factories, which the Chinese are good at , that would definitely be a win win situation for both countries
FWD2041