THE Central Statistical Office (CSO) has expressed optimism that the Zambian economy will grow by more than six per cent this year.
Preliminary estimates of real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) show that the economy is expected to grow by 6.3 per cent in 2009.
CSO director, Efreda Chulu said the 6.3 per cent growth would be attained this year saying the figure might even be exceeded based on the information available at the organisation.
Ms Chulu said in Lusaka most sectors of the economy which were previously not doing well were currently picking up.
“The 6.3 per cent growth will be attainable and we may even exceed it based on the information we have,” she said. [quote]
The projected growth is due to expected strong growth in the agriculture, forestry and fishing, mining and quarrying as well as the construction industries.
In his 2010 Budget address to Parliament in October this year, Finance and National Planning Minister Situmbeko Musokotwane said the projected economic growth for 2009 was pegged at 4.3 per cent representing a slight downward revision to the earlier projection of five per cent announced in the last Budget address.
Dr Musokotwane, however, said chances were extremely bright that the five per cent target would not only be attained but also exceeded should economic conditions continue to improve in this final quarter of 2009.
Ms Chulu expected Zambia to continue recording trade surpluses for some time.
During the month of October, Zambia recorded a trade surplus valued at K299.5 billion meaning the country exported more in the month than it imported in value terms.
In September, Zambia also recorded a trade surplus valued at K302.2 billion.
[Times of Zambia]
That’s good news but why are official figures so apparently inaccurate? Only a few weeks ago, the Minister of Finance projected 4.3% with only 8-10 weeks of the year left. Now, with 4 weeks before the end of the year, the CSO are estimating a growth rate of 6.3%. Either we had a very productive month in November or someone’s figures are rubbish. I’ll leave that for you to decide.
Yeah great news, but why indeed the inconsisitency. I want to see a focus now on poverty reduction in the Sixth National Developmet plan. . I was reading an interesting article yesterday comparing Brazil, China and India. It revealed that China has grown the most and made siginificant improvements in income inequality and poverty reduction while Brazil has experienced the least growth but made the best improvements in income equality and poverty reduction.. India is mid way on both. So all you economic and political planners, there are three models or scenarioes to pick from
Director, tell us what the underlying forces for this 6.3% growth are. I know economic growth ultimately results from the growth in labor input (man hours not necessarily workers) and growth in machinery. For long term sustainable growth this has to be supported an increasingly educated population, better health, adequate financing, good governance (including anti-corruption), stable political and macroeconomic environment. This is just to support the supply of goods and services. The supply needs demand. On the demand side we need local demand from jobs for purchasing power external demand through exports. Give us your projections based on these.
How I wish we had credible data on the economy. We would have the Minister of Finance and the CSO Director give statements that are so far from each other. Let CSO be independent with sufficient funding. We should be looking at monthly or quarterly data. How do we run an economy effectively if you get the data only after a year?
Please increase doctors, nurses and teachers wages then one can brag about increased GDP. These proffessions should have a better living standard like othe countries. Let the wealth trickle down to these hard working people. Take into consideration they spend the money IN Zambia and pay tax.
GDP is meaningless in Zed and to me it is not mark of economic development. There are no real investment plans let alone costs, all are operational costs incurred on top heavy govt officials and our on tourist presido with his contigent of followers. Export sales are for our foreign investors’ respective countries. Look at how poor the vast majority of Zambians andf you will weep to hear of economic development..Less than 5% people are in formal employment and rest who are eligible are traders of some kind who do not pay tax let alone know it. Embarassingly someone stands up praising economic development achievements which are biasly determined using a highly ambigious and debatable GDP figure. 4.3% or 100% GDP growth is meaningless in our country because it is not real nor representative
Zambians please learn to appreciate where it is due and give encouragement rather than just love to talk without sense. Zambia will never develop with senseless talkative people.
The GDP news is encouraging & needs to be supported. Mind you only hard work and committment by individuals will develop this country.
Constructive Talk @ 7 :Tell me bushe tukalya GDP. We want physical values not paper work. Reminds me of what I heard from supposedly Kitwe’s top economist( He is always on Radio Chengelo)in the street. He was asking his friend why PF/UPND are saying we poor when there are so many cars in Kitwe. He cited Christmas eve when he could not enter with his car in the Shoprite parking lot. I looked at and wondered what sort of economics he has studied when he can base the growth on second hand cars from Dubai and forgeting that 80% of our people live in abject poverty. Eifyo mwana we cannot chew your GDP