2011 headed for a record number of presidential candidates for Zambia

1. Is zat wat dey call changer?Change came only in 1991 when we only had UNIP en MMD.Sori 2 say zat MMD wil win dis election,weather u like it or not.We only hv less dan 5milion voters in zambia.Share de 5milion btwen de 15 presidential candidentes,u wil find zat MMD wil carry de day.U cant win an election like zat.Viva MMD.Viva Rb de president of all zambians.

   • Why can’t you just write proper words..you’re not sending a  text message to your lady friend!!
     What’s “zat” don’t be lazy.. its really annoying!!

   • Man grow up will you, how can you use such crappy language damn irritating, I suspect you are trying to hide your grammatical short comings, go back to school and fix that!

2. Thisis sad as the mmd will narrowly win with less than 30% and the nopposition will share the other 70%. Greed will make it impossible for change of govt. Its a pity everyone thinks of only plot one. There are many ways that these people could offer their services to zambia.

3. PF should have ‘sponsored’ Mangani, register him a new party and make him stand as a presidential candidate. This would have helped split the MMD electorate slightly.

   As things stand, its not rocket science, RB is sailing through……sad for the snake again.

4. Kona democracy bo ndate! Niti kikuli, kibababeli feela babayema, Sata ni Banda.

5. Sata will win the elections but not with a big margin though as Dr Simutanyi rightly puts it. In Southern Province where PF doesnt have the structures, HH will share the votes with his tribesmate Magande. Other votes will be awarded to RB and HH’s tribal cousin Milupi. This will significantly reduce HH and RB’s votes. In Western Province, Sata will win the popular vote though a good share will go to Milupi & HH. RB’s showing will be very dismal due to anger against his “savage govt” that has done so much harm against the Barotse people. This will push Sata’s votes higher from the previous elections of 2006 and 2008 respectively when PF’s structures were non existent in western province. In Eastern province, RB’s tribesmates including Tilyenji will spoil his votes. 

6. In Northern province, Nawakwi will spoil Sata’s votes in the Mambwe and Namwanga land where PF is not very strong. However, RB will be nowhere nearby in the contest because the second slot in the Mambwe and Namwangas will be given to PF following the influence of Mbita Chitala. The rest of the northern province will be whitewashed by PF. Chipimo’s influence is dismal. This can be seen from the previous parliamentary by-elections held in Mporokoso and Mpulungu. At that time Chitala had not yet weighed in his support for PF still, PF closed the gap from the previous 2006 presidential elections. There is no doubt that PF will slaughter the rest on the c/belt and Luapula. 

7. #5 you did not mention Chipimo and Nawakwi, who will he spoil for?

   Do they have a ‘tribesmate’?

   So we will only be entertained by just 15 and not 17.

8. In Zambia we lock up petty thieves and put the great ones into public office.Thats why some of the candidates on this list should scare us coz politics is the art of looking for trouble,finding it everywhere,giving it the wrong diagnosis and applying the wrong remedies all for personal gain.

9. As in North Western Province, HH will come with a bang but his votes will be heavily split with RB. Sata will still walk away with a good share of votes, thanks to Guy Scot who had camped there for more than a week soliciting votes from the regions which PF neglected in the previous elections. Eastern province which was previously RB’s comfort zone has been shredded following the resignation of Mangani. The Kaundas (Panji, Waza, Kaweche) will also do more harm to deny RB’s popular support. UNIP has also its traditional structures which will hit hard at RB’s support. This is the reason why UNIP’s Mukondo Lungu managed to win the Lundazi seat. The province is traditionally inclined to UNIP. PF will be comfortable in the second position going by the recent political trends prevailing. 

10.  Central Province is a swing province of which the vote can go either way; to the opposition or the ruling party. However, following RB’s rally in Kabwe at which several cadres were bussed from far flung areas is not a good sign for MMD. PF and HH will have a good advantage over RB. Lusaka is unquestionably a PF zone. Even a frog standing on PF can win. This means that Sata would have collected enough from other regions to add to his strongholds to put him ahead of other presidential candidates. Many of the participating candidates cant even hold a single rally neither can they influence their own families to vote for them. They are not even known by the media apart from the registrar of  societies and ECZ.Thus from this random scenario Sata is likely to narrowly win with about 10.5%.

11. Oh if imutanyi’s analysis is tru, then UPND will win. They won in 2001 and Government stole. If they do not steal the elections this time around since Chiluba the chief beutiful liar is dead, then HH wins! Reason, Northern will be split, C/belt split anf Lusak some what split. HH takes a good chunk in Western, Southern, Central, Northwestern, Lusaka rural and hey he wins. Sad for MMD and the rest

12. Chipimo and Nawakwi will be spoiling for Sata in the North.

13. Chipimo and Nawakwi will be spoiling for Sata but not with enough votes to destroy PF’s standing in Northern Province. Nawakwi’s party is heavily divided with her vice president and many of her immediate MPs having endorsed RB. I wonder if she will even hold a rally beyond her homeland in Nakonde. As for Chipimo, it is not his time. He will be a shadow in the race but a few votes which he will collect in Bemba land will reduce Sata’s count but not enough to break his backbone. The contenders here are RB, Sata and HH. Milupi will be a factor in Western Province. This will significantly rob RB and HH’s votes. RB won the 2006 elections based on the Lozi vote after trailing Sata across the country. However, this time around, am afraid for RB. 

14. Maiamai, i did not see your other comments when i read #5. I have now read your full analysis, good reading i must say but obviously inspired by your fertile imagination. Hope you will be ok to face reality on 21st September

15. CRAP IN ZAMBIA.

16. This analysis is also held by some insiders in ECZ and Central Statistics Office. MMD is also aware of this mathematics, the reason they have brought back VJ in the presidential campaign.I mingle a lot with some MMD officials. There is panic in their camp. Believe me, things are not okay with them. Currently there is a lot of witch-hunting among them accusing each other of being moles of the opposition. It looks like the campaign strategy has not gone according to their plan. RB is openly annoyed with some of the figures around him. 

17. U are correct Maimai there s panic in MMD s camp hence the decision to bring bavk VJ -but alas its too late.RB/MMD ve messed up real big.For a sitting President his campign isnt inspiring,let alone the man s lack of ability to give a campaign speech.

18. Zambia has alot of political drama

19. We need presidential primaries in Zambia. Fifteen is insane. That is not democracy. Let the candidates go on TV and tell us what they want to do for mother Zambia. Then only three can qualify to go to the end.

20. toal cat Rubbish! zrp rrp ccp opc ftc diasporan revolution party wtf is going on?

21. Chipimo and Nawakwi can’t split the Northern Vote. They have no following to talk home about anywhere in the 9 provinces. These and many others are mere jokers wasting their energies and our time. The likely outcome will be Sata 51%, RB 27, HH 17% and rest will share the 5% remaining. Best to respond after the 20th September! Bye till then.

22. Nonesense, We need young blood. these fools need nature to clear them

23. Chickens to the slaughter. This just shows how individualistic zed politicians think. They need learn words like macro and collective …

24. whatever the analyses, sata had more chances of winning in 2008 than he has now for all the apparent reasons

25. whatever the analysis,zambians should vote for real change if the country is to move forward. The old leaders will continue regrouping themselves and hinder the young ones from progressing. Leaders who have been in politics since unip days should be kicked out.

26. Young people should give us a better zambia!

27. Milupi will only win in Luena, no other part of western can vote for Milupi. We all know that he just want show that he is also alive otherwise the battle is between UPND and MMD. There is no PF in western province. SATA will teribly in western province.

28. @ Maimai Thought provoking analysis, most Zambians are crying for change, Who ever wins will have a minority government and parliament will be interesting from this year onwards. We are in serious need of changing our political system either introduce a system of presidential run offs in which case rigging will be easy especially for the ruling party or adopt a situation where in the event of no candidate comes with a clear majority i.e greater than 50% then parliament has to endorse a president. but either way coalitions will be formed in parliament.

29. The government of any country, irrespective of its system, whether capitalist, communist, or any other system–is governed by the collective consciousness of the nation. Whatever the quality of national consciousness, will always be the quality of national government, so whatever a government does, it is the doing of the collective consciousness of the nation, in the same way as anything done by the individual is motivated by the mind.

30. Zambian politics is an absolute disgrace. 15 candidates? Can we please make some changes to the constitution… lets have a primary and limit the number of running candidates to 3 or 4.. then the winner must have 50+1% of the votes to win. At this rate Banda will win this election with only 11% of the vote. I’m embarrassed

31. Zambia’s electoral system is the First Past The Post (FPTP) or in other words “winner takes all”. With this this pathetic system, certainly the winner in this year’s election as you have rightly put it will have the minority govt given the pool of candidates that are participating. However, as much as they appear to be many more than half of the candidates are virtually absent on the political landscape of which they are most likely going to be collecting nil votes in many polling stations. Therefore, they are not a factor even to mention them in this analysis. To narrow down on my assumption, one has to look at how many regions does each one of them command in terms of support. The mathematics narrowly favours Sata with a slim majority ahead of RB. 

32. @ BA ZEDI, Zambia’s electoral system is the First Past The Post (FPTP) or in other words “winner takes all”. With this pathetic system, certainly the winner in this year’s election as you have rightly put it will have the minority govt given the pool of candidates that are participating. However, as much as they appear to be many, more than half of the candidates are virtually absent on the political landscape of which they are most likely going to be collecting nil votes in many polling stations. Therefore, they are not a factor even to mention them in this analysis. To narrow down on my assumption, one has to look at how many regions does each one of them command in terms of support. The mathematics narrowly favours Sata with a slim majority ahead of RB.

33. Those of us u a voting 4 the oposition should not vote 4 time wastersThose of us u a voting 4 the oposition should not vote 4 time wasters

    • what are you trying to say!!??

34. Battle lines are drawn; soon we know who is the strongest of the fifteeeeeeeeeeeeeeen. By the way is NADA still alive? Anyone with information?

35. @maimai######## JUST PREPARE FOR A SHOWDOWN ON THE 20TH SEPTEMBER. I HAVE READ YOUR ANALYSIS AND WHILE YOU MAY HAVE A BIT OF OBJECTIVITY, AM AFRAID YOU ARE USING HISTORICAL INFORMATION PURELY TO PROJECT THE FUTURE. THERE MAY NOT NECESSARIRY BE WRONG IN BASING YOUR ANALYSIS ON HISTORY BUT WHERE THERE ARE OTHER FACTORS CURRENTLY AT PLAY, THEY SHOULD ALSO BE TAKEN IN CONSIDERATION. FOR EXAMPLE, YOU ASSUME THAT ITS ONLY PF WHICH HAS MADE INROADS IN OTHER AREAS LIKE WESTERN AND NORTHWETERN AND TOTALLY IGNORE THE FACT THAT OTHERS HAVE ALSO MADE INROADS IN PF STRONGHOLDS. NOW THAT IS NOT AN OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS. THE FACT IS PF HAS MADE SLIGHT INROADS IN WESTERN BUT NONE IN NORTH WESTERN. THERE IS ALSO NO SIGN THAT PF HAS IMPROVED ITS SHOWING IN CENTRAL PRONVICE. THAT WE CAN ONLY KNOW AFTER 20TH NE

36. CONT….XT MONTH. YOU SAY MILUPI WILL DISSADVANTAGE MMD, WELL I WILL TELL YOU THAT THINGS DONT ALWAYS WORK LIKE THAT. WITHOUT MILUPI, PF WOULD HAVE HAD A HIGHER CHANCE ALSO. IN LUSAKA AND COPPERBELT, I WILL ASSURE YOU THAT MMD AND PF WILL NECK AND NECK. OVERALL HOWEVER, PF WILL WIN LUSAKA. ON THE COPPERBELT, PF WILL WIN BUT MMD WILL COME VERY STRONG SECOND. IN LUAPULA, MMD WILL HAVE A SLIGHT ADVANTAGE OVER PF ALTHOUGH IT WILL LARGELY BE NECK TO NECK. I WILL ASURE YOU THAT PF HAS LOST A LOT OF GROUND IN LASAKA TO RUPPIAH AND HH. EASTERN OFFCOURSE WILL BE UNTOUCHED FOT RB, SOUTHERN WILL BE UNTOUCHED TO HH BUT WITH A VERY STRONG SHOWING FOR RB. THINGS THAT HAVE REDUCED SATA’S CHNCES ARE HIS AGE, HEALTH, INCOSISTENCES OF LATE, GENERAL BEHAVIOUR EG AT CHILUBA FUNERAL-THAT DID NOT GO WELL WITH

37. CONT…. ELDERLY PEOPLE. SO OVERALL I SEE RB WINNING WITH AN IMPRESSIVE MARGIN. THE SECOND SLOUGHT CAN GO TO EITHER SATA OR HH BUT IT WILL BE VERY CLOSE. I JUST WISH SATA HAD FOUND COMMON GROUND WITH HH AND AGREE TO SPONSOR ONE OF THEM, THEN IT WOULD HAVE BEEN ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE FOR MMD TO COMEBACK. ABOUT RB PANICKING, HOO, COMEON ITS VERY NORMAL MY DEAR. I WOULD BE SUPPRISED IF SATA IS NOT PANICKING. THE ELECTIONS ARE TOUGH. THANKS

38. where is prof. Clive Chirwa? Is he standing on UPND?

39. Milupi,you are a very short sighted selfish individual.Yes you are undisputedly popular in Luena constituency but this does not guarantee you national popularity.Had you been sensible enough,you would have just joined one of the already existing parties as opposed to forming your future-less party.So please stop blaming others rather blame yourself.My free advice to you is please withdraw from the presidential race and instead stand as an MP in Luena before you embarrass yourself on the presidential platform,its too big for you.

40. I have never seen that man’s wife in pic!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

41. People has President Banda filed his nomination papers for presidential race….he said Wednesday i have not read any article stipulating to that…can someone clear the air PLEASE

42. @ Bitter Pill i agree with you Milupi should just constest parliamentary seat after all he is one of the few MPs who seemed to know what they were doing in parley i would equally urge Chipimo to stand as an MP but unlike Milupi i doubt if he would win. The list is a clear indication of lack of TEAM WORK in this country.It also affetcts how we ran businesses always want to go it alone.

43. Maimai.#.you need to learn to talk senseble things to have any impact here. There is no way SATA to be near to win these elections. Look, how many voters have registered excluding of dead people, I can see UPND winning easily. Looking at what you are saying, then HH has more chance because Milupi you are talking about is not known, People of western are not so dull when they know, Milupi is known only in Luena not any other area in western province, the correct analysis will be out in 40 days time. HH is headed for victory. Remember RB and SATA will be sharing badly and that will reduce SATA’s and RB chances. if RB was not standing yes. HH will have no problems winning western, southern, north-western, central and Lusaka provinces if the elections is held today these voted for RB in 2008.

44. HH and the UPND are set to form the next GRZ Administration of Zambia and “Dr Simutanyi, who is also Centre for Policy dialogue Director, has stated that there will be a split of votes, which will highly disadvantage the opposition” by Dr N. Simutanyi is wrong. I feel sorry for PF who have overrated themselves this 2011 elections although PF’s actions indicate that they have noted that they may not get more votes than President RB Banda of MMD — hence PF’s attempt to bar RB Banda from contesting the elections since PF does not understand democracy. As a matter of fact, PF’s Sata MC presidential candidate is the person who frustrated democracy in MMD in 2001 when he supported late Mr FJT Chiluba’s Thrid Term bid.

    I hope majority Zambians will vote wisely.
    _
    Matt 6:33

45. @Maimai; They are just too many parties participating in this year’s elections giving an advantage to the MMD. MMD has support the whole country including the western province despite the fracas. Sata will never be president of this country because of his greediness. Sata only has 100% support in Lusaka and the Copperbelt. Northern and Luapula the votes will be split. Southern, Western and North Western is for HH and RB will get some votes while Sata will trail behind. Central and Eastern will be 100% RB with HH getting some votes and Sata third. Meanwhile RB will get the votes in all the provinces. So ba Miami, your analysis is wrong. RB is wining the elections. We needed a strong opposition fielding 1 candidate, not 15 candidates.

46. Well to be realistic, the politics in Zambia are just backwards. We cant surely be having 16 candidates for presidency. Our constitution failed to pass because of our failure to reason well. When people with foresight refused to participate, many of us thought they were selfish. Remember how much was spent on that only to be wasted!! We need 50+1 criteria to determine the real winner. why should the country be led by a government with only 30% of parliamentarians!!! shame to s all, if we continue like this, Zambia will end up like Egypt, Tunisia etc. If I were asked, for the past three election, MMD has never won but have stolen votes, this time too they are capable of doing it. They store from Mazoka they have twice stolen from Sata!!!!
     

47. Many of these presidential hopefuls were compelled to form their own parties after they were denied the opportunity to challenge the leader of the party they belonged to. Had the parties been democratic enough to allow presidential hopefuls to participate in some kind of primaries, many of the inferior candidates would have been eliminated at that level, leaving only the fittest to contest the national seat. Unfortunately RB is unchallengeable in his party. Michael Sata is a crowned king who is on throne for life in his own party. The same goes for HH. What channel is there then for anyone else who aspires for the top seat? I guess, it’s only to form another party. Quite wierd, but that is the politics of Zambia… Kaunda wa muyayaya…!

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