By Gray Soko
The size of a political rally is usually taken as a sign of the party’s popularity. Not quite so, say some of our politicians. When Sata drew huge crowds in Western Province some politicians brushed this aside saying people attended the rallies for their entertainment value or for the opportunity to hear some passionate speeches.This especially after the trauma of high handed police action, some called brutality.
Then of course our “national” TV tells us of mammoth rallies where people are eager to hear about the “good development” that has taken place and will take place under RB. Wide-angle pictures of rally crowds are not unusual in the press. I suspect pictures of small audiences which would embarrass the leader or party are suppressed. Small audiences are called sizeable crowds, scores of people etc. There has been deliberate attempts to attract people to rallies by hiring some musical bands. [pullquote]Iam reminded of BY’s impressive rallies and video footage in the 2001 elections and he got only 4.84% of the presidential votes cast or 3.28% of the registered voters.[/pullquote]
An aspiring presidential candidate, Magande, has said he does not believe in rallies as his message may not be well understood, so he prefers small groups or door to door campaigns to put his message across and more importantly get feedback from the people. Guy Scott urges his members to supplement rallies with door to door campaigns. There is obviously a place for rallies in an election campaign. Rallies may sway the undecided voter to join the “mainstream” and also give encouragement to the politician. The politician is also able to address more people at one time than he would have the time and resources to, in small groups.
It would however be folly for the politician to solely view the size of the rally or the intensity of the campaign as an indication of the voter turnout in his favour. Iam reminded of BY’s impressive rallies and video footage in the 2001 elections and he got only 4.84% of the presidential votes cast or 3.28% of the registered voters. In the parliamentary election his party got 5.43% of votes cast or 3.72% of registered voters . If this did not shock him it certainly surprised me.
This is however not to say that this scenario will necessarily be repeated this time round but to emphasize the point that there should be a stronger message to the electorate to turn out and actually vote for their preferred candidates. Whilst show of public support is important it will amount to nothing if the vote is not cast. At this critical time before the election, politicians and other stakeholders should also avoid negative campaigns , intimidation or magnifying isolated incidences of political violence which could result in voter apathy.
I never attend an political rally, but i am a die hard member of UPND
I decided long ago who to vote for, personalities I agree to, not political parties. In other words, rallies to me are a by-the-way when I want to pass time. And so, if I have the time, I go to see my grand old cobra and enjoy his jokes or share the optimisim of one HH knowing he should work harder. Viva raliies for us with time to spare instead of making money molding bricks or breaking the hard soil in gardens.
Excellent observation
Ba Soko, You left out a crucial 2008 statistic. On the final Day of compaign, Sata a the biggest rally ever seen in Lusaka since the 1991 days and RB has the smallest rally ever held by a sitting president in the history of Zambia.
On the voting day. Lusaka had the lowest Voter turn out in the voting history and that is why PF lost the 2008 elections. If Lusaka alone had a huge turn out as they were at the final rally, RB would have been history.
So here is my Theory, rallies are attended by kids and the unemployed who have plenty of time to waste and they don’t form a huge voting block and these are mostly under 25yrs.
This year this Rally attending group forms only 1/5 of the electorates and it is not looking good for PF that rely on rallies and Guy Scott knows it.
Ask Thomas Nsama how he does it
Enya mwanangwa!!!! I like your name. Kukpmba mupoto yayi!
Can someone from Northern Province confirm that PF did not field a candidate in Lubansenshi Constituency of Luwingu District. The list of validly nominated candidates as published by EZC on their website shows that PF has no candidate in this constituency and I am very surprised that PF can fail to field a candidate in this constituency which they previously held through Lazarous Chota. Is it a mistake of EZC or this a correct position? Can some bloggers from Northern verify this and updates us!
I think it is a mistake on the part of ECZ. I looked out for the PF list of sponsored candidates and Mr Chota was on the list!
no.2 the reason is that most of those who attended rallies in 2008 did not register now we have over 1m newly registered voters most are young and probably the ones who did vote in2008 and who now want to teacher rb a lesson
it may be that they want to teach Sata a lesson, like me.
iwe kapaso stop dreaming how lucky u a … Gbabo spared u fool
I THINK AT SOME EXTENT THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE THAT ATTEND YO RALLY MIGHT SYMBOLISE THE VOTES UL GET BECAUSE SOMEONE WILL NOT WANT TO WASTE THERE TIME LISTENIN TO SOMEONE THE WONT VOTE FOR
sata will never rule Zambia..get it right in those thick heads…!
Chita is standing the ecz have made a mistake
smelling victory…lets go PF..
People go to a rally just to receive things and enjoy as a group like in the village i used to go there to see friends from the other side of the village chat and have fun.
True dat my brother!
MMD HAS ALREADY 2 VOTES FROM ME AND MY WIFE
# 8. GET IT FROM ME SATA IS DEFEATING YOUR MALAWIAN ON 20th SEPT.PERIOD!
Good piece Mr. Soko! Rallies are not everything and not a good determinant of what will be after the elections. The PF is one party that judges its own popularity purely based on attendance at its rallies. it does not even bother them when more people than the total number of registered voters in any particular area attend their rallies! To them even four year olds are a vital statistic in their quuest to appear to be the most popular and liked party in Zambia. They, for example, are now claimining that eastern and southern province have fallen to them!
Reminds me of Kadansa’s antics on Cairo Road in the 1990s! It was an entertaining spectacle but not one destined to lead even a committee of Kaponyas. People get entertainment in many ways, including seeing political clowns who are huffing and puffing about running a country. Let them dream. There shall be no SATAn in State House for ever!!!!!
As the author says, rallies have their strong advantages and I would say that if you mix that with musical entertainment the better. However the bottom line that wins the vote is the message, and how much trust the politician invokes in the voters. If your message is 90 more money in your pockets, and you consistently tell lies, then rallies can decampaign you.
I totally agree with # 16, no MMD is more prepared this time around than any other time. VIVA RB
I totally agree with # 16, MMD is more prepared this time around than any other time. VIVA RB
VIVA anybody but Sata. VIVA Peace in Zambia and prosperity for all tribes.
When we attend PF rally we where told that we where note going to vote now we have registed as votes belive it or not we use it to remove some one VIVA PF
# 18 I totally agree with you and Rb shall win by a reasonable margin. I expect our coleagues to dispute the results and throwing a few stones to break property. I certainly do not want to see Kabimba in any government, he is such a saddist.
If Mushota held a rally, I would attend!
#19 dzikomo. My friend, MMD have no chance in heil despite their so called more preparedness. They will be fighting the heavy battle with the majority poor Zambians. Most Zambians including professionals in the country are barely surviving. I am a senior engineer in KCM Plc and got paid 4 days ago, and today i am very broke and in heavy debts. I have not even bought toileteries for my home. I don’t drink beer nor womanize. My pay is not just enough to afford me buy even the most basic commodities in Zambia today. It is indeed tough and i wonder why our politicians claim that there is prosperity. I can’t see it myself and that’s why come 20th sept am voting out RB. What a country……….???
Whatever you do, please don’t vote for Sata. Things will get worse not better!!!
If you are broke then you just dont know how to manage your money. This is a problem with many Zambians they are just too selfish. And another thing most people dont know which class of society they belong to. They want to be living like owners of the companies they work for hence the splashing of money they earn anyhow. Tomorrow they are broke. Their juniors that do well in managing their salaries are doing better than them.
By Gray Soko ” The size of a political rally is usually taken as a sign of the party’s popularity. Not quite so, say some of our politicians. ”
Unless of course they are MMD rallies. :)
I totally agree with #22. Things are just too hard for indigeneous majority black Zambians. It is only expatriates and thieves are managing and are very rich.What a country which only favors foreigners and whites. But majority blacks indigeneous are left out.
No wonder there is no MMD in the copperbelt. Last evening, Nchanga constituency MMD aspiring candidate Christon Mwape chickened out of the Muvi tv debate. Only Wilbur Simuusa and some funny sickler woman from UPND managed to atted the debate. The woman had no material what so ever. Wilbur had alot of data. MMD is going out this year-2011. Seriously speaking!!!
Ni donci kubebbeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee ba koolwe…………………..!!! RB, red card……..!! acooke mu State House…………………….!!! kuya beebeleeeeeeeeeee!!! Viva Pf!!
fellow blogers the isue is about mass rallies VS voter turnout.not whose or poor,winning or losing to be rich youu just need to work hard and know conections.
itsnot political
1 million more and new young PF voters. VIVA Badala! PF Yabola
Sianga#29. Waba itweeno!!
Waba intwenu, Sianga#29ga
MMd………….kuya beebeleeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee………….!!! Ala ni donci kubeebbaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!!! Viva pa Bwaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaatooooooooooo!!!
Gray Soko you are right.PF members’ comfort is based on Rallies turn out.which should never be the case!Pipo like us been Voting for MMD not based on what they will do or have done, but just cause of the Security of the nation.PF is for dictators and we do not want Zambia to become like Zimbabwe,as a result we can attend Sata’s meetings for entertainment purposes.Besides we like the Presure Sata puts on our government to develop the country which is good but will not give him our Votes!
It’s funny how insults start just from a singe headline,nway truth be told the same pipo that attend upnd rallies,are the same ones that go to pf(poorly funded)and the same that go to mmd ones!but the party with credible normal humanly candidates wins!chapwa
KUMMAWA NUMBER IT IS THE Lazarous Chota SATANDING ON PF
The MMD is a sinking titinic, only those who believe in self gain supporti it. Iam a development worker, and every day i encounter abject poverty in the villages. Please have the heart for the poor , remove this selfish part (MMD).
@@@@PERRY###### I DONT THINK SO, AND I ALSO DONT THINK YOU STAY IN ZAMBIA BUT IF YOU DO, THEN YOU MUST BE IN LUAPULA.
The idea of door to door campaigning has been made favourable following Obama’s campaign strategy. Be reminded that Obama began his door to door campaign over a year prior to the elections. There are 20 days to the elections, by the time you walk from Kalabo to Mongu….. I dare say!!
Bane PF is in power come 21st Sept. no delay in announcing vote count we have PVT
Sata is a comedian and how do you allow a come in state house. The man is just fit to be in the opposition and not to lead this country. How do you have an illiterate president? How is going to articulate issues at international foras. If people really want change, then HH is the right person not satan. Personally, i can’t waste my vote on satan.
@ #5, LUBANSENSHI FOR PF IS SAME CHOTAL LAZ…THESE ELECTIONS WILL MAKE A DIFFERENT HISTORY FOR ZAMBIA,WAIT AND SEE WHEN WE GO FOR INOGURATION OF THE 5TH ZAMBIAN PRESIDENT AND ITS ON THE WALL… THE BOAT!!!!
MMM!! BA CHINENA IS THAT A NAME OF ALL NAMES SURE???? BE REAL ,SATA KUTEKA NOMBA
Which impressive rallies by BY are you talking about? I never saw them in the Copperbelt or in any major town.
@Residence Mechanical Eng.KCM
SURELY you need Sata 2 came and make a budget 4u?you mean u cant buy groc. fm 10m?your head is full of sawdust,came 2 chiliz new conc. i teach u how to prepare a simple bugdet failure!Dont blame anyone 4 ur sawdust!
Why vote for Zambians when we have given you a capable Zimbabwean? Zambians please learn to appreciate our generosity! Pamberi na RB pamberi na MMD.
We should not be happy at seeing these “massive” political rallies.They are a bad sign of lack of jobs and they rob our economy of productive manhours.We all get 24hrs each but some are able to squeeze alot more productive things out of their day than others.Thats how Bill Gates is able to be very rich yet he gets the same 24hrs as a peasant in Luapula.
Ba pf mulaibepa that your serpent will win. This is impossible. In Zambia it is possible for a camel to go through the eye of a needle than for snake sata to be voted for president. The man is too arogant, stuborn, cruel, evil, hooliganist and all characteristics of satan are in him. Remember, birds of the same feathers flock together.HH for 2016 while Zambia continues with RB as Zambians permanently retires snake sata on 21 september 2011..
@Residence Mechanical Eng.KCM….Quit if you are poorly paid.Your mismanagement of funds can not be attributed to Govt.Please stop taking out personal frustrations as reasons for change of Govt.If your Zondwa God forbid sneaks into state house,even your K10million may even disappear from your income.
Guys, RB and MMD going through…! Sata and his PF are just political commedians. We can’t be cheated by this socialist vampire. RB has convisingly delivered on his campaign promises during his three years. He has considerable support in the urban areas and the majority rural voters in many provinces are for RB. PF are fantacizing.They have no agenda at all. No wonder they brought in the issue of parentage, ZRA, UPG, ECZ etc in an effort to divert attention. They are escorters!
No.24, the senior Engineer in KCM may be you are broke because of the loans you get from INDO BANK.Having been a KCM employee before I know that you miners fail to manage yourselves.Let me tell you that 75% of the financial problems you are facing are of your own making
Thank you for the auspicious writeup. It in reality was once a amusement account it. Look advanced to far brought agreeable from you! By the way, how could we keep up a correspondence?