By D.Maswahu
At the risk of being accused of pouring salt on fresh wounds, allow me to seek an audience on your esteemed forum. The issue of the numerous pre-election polls that predicted an out-right win for Rupiah Banda lingers ( like a voluptuous woman’s short black skirt) on my mind.
I have a bone to pick and am ravenously keen to see the faces of the organisations and institutions that churned out that information, how they arrived at their conclusions and (most importantly) how they intend to maintain professionalism and public credibility (if this is indeed part of their institutional ethos).
If the producers of those opinion polls had an ounce of professionalism they would have by now come out to reconcile the discrepancy between their prediction and the eventual result. As all of them are now wondrously silent, I will make my own conclusions on their behalf and state what they would never have the guts to state publicly (which same they must thank me for, but never mind)
1.
All those people and institutions that produced wrong opinion polls are a pack of ravenous howling wolves whose only consideration is their own welfare. They should be black listed as unreliable and registered (plainly for all to see) as professionally and politically dangerous.
2.
The pack of wolves should be extended to include any District Commissioners and former MMD party loyalists who are now (of all times) deciding to defect to PF. All these should be seen in their true light as insincere, morally bankrupt and unprincipled in the extreme. If PF are sensible, these fair weather friends and defectors should not be allowed to join the ranks. They belong to the political wilderness. Congratulations from failed politicians should also be taken with a pinch of salt as these are in all probability just jobs seekers running away from the rumbling of their hungry bellies.
3.
The current government sponsored media institutions (ZNBC, Daily Mail and Times of Zambia) should in all fairness be privatised and perhaps leave just one (instead of three) pro-government media houses.The presidential election result has classified these institutions as unredeemable and unrepresentative besides being a criminal waste of tax-payers hard earned money. Tax payers money should never be (ab)used to propagate views divergent from the source of income.
Let us learn from President Barack Obama who surrounds himself and has specifically appointed people to criticise and tell him unpleasant things because it is better that he hears criticism first from his own ranks than from the opposition.
The 2011 presidential election result has vindicated the intelligence of the Zambian people (aka we are not fools). I now have more reason to believe that future elections will be based more on issues rather than on how many bicycles, vitenges, T-shirts, bags of mealie meal or brown envelopes one can pass around. Even having biased reporting via television stations and news papers and (above all) well oiled but erroneous opinion polls will not help future election candidates. The MMD were so blinded in their frenzy to stay in power, they did not realise that they first of all needed to be sincere with themselves before they went out to sell the party. If anyone is looking to find out the simple cause of MMD failure, lack of sincerity hits the spot.
As much as the MMD should carry out an autopsy as to how and why they failed to read the situation, the PF should get on with the task at hand.
I will not thank the PF, but fellow Zambians for taking our young democracy to the next level. If our loyalties remain true to our country and it’s welfare (not to an individual who is here today and gone tomorrow), we have no need to fear anyone or anything and can stand as Zambians truly proud and free. UNIP, MMP, PF will come and go. Zambia remains. Decide for yourself where your loyalty lies – I have no illusions about where mine lies.
I think you need to judge the opinion polls on the basis of the total number of registered voters against those that voted. Many I spoke to said it would be the same old same old and sat back waiting for someone else to make the decision. We still have a minority Government in office and desperately need a good long thoughtful look at our constitution.
Here I have in mind the likes of Lifwekelo, Mumbi, William Banda, Dora Siliya, Shikapwasha, Daily Mail, ZNBC, Times of Zambia, FTJ Chiluba, all Luapulan “Chieves”, George Kunda, Muchengwa, The Litunga, Mwanachingwala etc, just how are these people and institutions feeling now that Sata is in power? If I were Zondwe, I will liquidate them all, one time.
This is a democracy, learn to co-exist with pipo of different opinion. MMD did its part, its now PF’s part.” Do unto others as you want them to do unto you” Politics of vengency won’t take you anywhere, be partrotic….
William is at Chipata Central Police, Shame what a bad end. Like our president, says do unto others what u would like them to do to u
HAAAAAAAAAAAAAA, IT WAS LIKE YOU WERE READING MY MIND! WHERE ARE THOSE BAFOONS THAT WERE BUSY PREDICTING NONSENSE ABOUT BANDA’S LANDSLIDE VICTORY. SSSSSHHHHHAAAAAAAMMMMMMMEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!
USELESS SELLOUTS!!!
Ask for VJ’s opinion on his opinion poll!
The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) should in particular be taken to task. They repeatedly predicted an MMD victory. One is bound to speculate that they were serving external forces…Western business interests and western countries preferences! They deliberately set out to manipulate public opinion to influence the out come of our elections. This should be a big lesson for us not to trust outside media as being the source of the absolute truth!
I feel for Dr Neo Simutanyi.what is he saying Now? shame
I was fooled by the money MMD was giving me. Poverty had been the older of my day. Am so stupid cry cry cry
Considerint that it was deemed unfathomable that PF and Michael Sata would win and incoceivable that MMD and Rupia Banda would lose, what are the factors that made the difference? Where did the opinion polls go wrong in measuring the election mood?
For interest, which poll was closest to the results?
It seems every one of these opinion polls wished and prayed for Sata to loose. They were no different from our biased media. The EIU and Standard bank too! No wonder RB wept in disbelief that he had lost. How could he loose when all these respectable institutions and top academics had assured him of victory? It didn’t occur to him they could turn out to be charlatans and fake prophets. What a sucker punch!
The language in the first two paragraphs is too strong. This is what we are trying to avoid in the new government, otherwise you are dead right about some of the opinion polls. They were sponsored to manipulate people’s thinking. Opinion polls should be conducted by independent and professional bodies or individuals not those that ies.are funded by interested part
Considering that it was deemed unfathomable that PF and Michael Sata would win and incoceivable that MMD and Rupia Banda would lose, what are the factors that made the difference? Where did the opinion polls go wrong in measuring the election mood?
Those people from Synovate are MMD that is why they were willing to present those bogus results of their very biased poinion poll. My question was how did they determine their sample? People planning to do resaerch using Synovate should be careful. Their business may be affected.
Ikandulwa,
There was an influx of slightly over one million new registered voters who swung the vote in the direction of PF. Secondly, an opinion poll is a semi-scientific publication and as some very smart people have pointed out above, practically all those who predicted an RB win did not declare their interests i.e. that they expected or had already recieved some kind of favour from RB and cohorts like William Banda and the likes.
Nice article, as former president Banda said, MMD became complacent with their ideology of buying votes with no work done. Credit to Zambians for letting them realize that it’s not all about vitenge na unga.
The Campaign Extravagancy displayed by MMD is something we should put to an end as we have a lot of challenges as a country. I took their Approach as Foolish worse of it all, they are lies who lied to their party Leaders, coming up with S.T.U.I.P opinion polls which cost their Party President a re election.
I hope our President SATA will not surround himself with F.o.o.l.s Bootlickers who will not oppose him for the seek of Jobs. All government run media should GO. VIVA Zambian people and keep up your good work, Dochi Talala. We should also fire MPs that can not deliver.
My proposal is that, the new Constitution should include that, who ever MP resigns from his Party loses his/her right to stand in the bye elections which comes forth as a result of that individuals’ resignation. Sata must also abolish the office of DC as there are just party cadres contributing nothing to the nation. Federal system of governing (Nigerian type) should be introduced-that may just quench problems such as the BRE issue.
The Bradford University (Canada!!) was correct. Ha!ha!ha!ha! Someone should establish this Uni in Canada.
@12
Kissing Dust made Simple says:
Mon Sep 26 at 2:47 pm
“There was an influx of slightly over one million new registered voters who swung the vote in the direction of PF. Secondly, an opinion poll is a semi-scientific publication….” Exceptionally good thought. I should further presume that most of those new voters were young people.
They were just opinion polls thats it dont make a big deal out of it… not all of they are correct but now we want to see this PHD mentality in Zambia.
even in business they are there i remember yhe past few months NFP in the US they have been missing big time so you get on with it
Yes boss
These are fresh new voters all below 25 years mostly. They made the difference. No one put these ‘under 5s’ in their equation and the results were devastating.
If this was the reason then the people who conducted the opinion polls are very dull, why did they not take a cross section of the age groups. You can’t carry out a reseach concentrating on old data you should dig dipper including the current situation. To me the reason is that they were bought and were boot licking thats all. I will never buy this reason. Tell us another one.
listern to this as the old man says this is time to move on ala youtube. com/watch?v=iSkodfwxk7c
Fwebakalamba we failed to trash out MMD, imisepela shapanga revolution!
If the opinion polls were conducted even a year before the 2011 elections, they could have predicted a loss to the incumbent unless rigging became a huge factor. The target was too big to miss. The polls were simply biased for reasons best known to the designers and implementers.
An excellent article. A good breather from those long, long, biased articles that dominated for some time for me. The author has balanced his choice of words and thrown them without partiality. His points are well summarised and exposes the hypocrisy of political opportunists and fair weather friends – they belong to the political wilderness… (ouch!!)
What more can I say? The truth is an offence but it is not a sin.
Bane natwikale umutende muno chalo catupa lesa mukulu. MMD, PF, UPND tulibanganda imo. Kubenamupalamano ndeti, mwikala patalale mwine apatalalika. Intulubundi tayawama. eco ndetila natila lesa atupangate bonse.
Yabe! memakombe yafumu, nati ndabeko cimo. Kuli bantala misoka, bamukukulu mwishebe ukuti UMULANDU TAUBOLA. Napwa.
Dejalas Joburg mudala, I totally agree with you. You have made my day.
1.) An MP who resigns should not be allowed to recontest a seat.
2.) DC positions should be abolished. These are useless party cadres getting civil service conditions i.e. tax payers money.
PF MPs abandoned the bogus MMD constitution nonsense. We need to support them to push for changes like these. A presidential directive / bill may be the quick way around it. Too much money has been wasted already on non-progressive conferences.
Most opinion polls were not objective but conducted with prejudice bias for the MMD, sheer propaganda without substance.
#15 an MP that resigns from their party should simply not be allowed to re-contest in the ensuing bye election and must miss that term. Yes the position of District Commissioner has to be abolished for it only served the MMD party draining the national meagre financial resources. A federal system could be feasible and go along with decentralization. The provincial minister position could be turned governor with a new lob description and lean structure
Lesson for all public servants, “don’t get carried away with public office”, especially for those who seek high office. It is unbelievable how some people change once in responsible positions. If you are worth your salt and would like to be arogant and pompous don’t enter public office run your own kantemba where you can do as you wish. Leave public office to those who have a heart for people.
http://www.lusakatimes.com/smilies/yahoo_smiley.gifWittingly enough for MMD-they did not voice possibility that PF might have rigged the polls?? No need to cry over their own follies-spilled milk as it were! Not in the presence of dependable opinion polls of course not the likes of our esteemed Dr S?
We need good and well balanced articles such as above
What is amazing is when MMD where campaining, they used to run adverts on ZNBC TV and radio. Because they knew this is what killed UNIP, they came up with an idea of blanking out the opposition after all they thought they were strong in the rural areas (you should see comments from Bootlicker, and a certain Mr Capitalist).
Whta it hurts me is they were busy and on purpose keeping these villagers uninformed so that they got their vote. Surely this is murder!
But hey in Africa, it is all about keeping them uninformed/poor so that when the time comes all you have to do is give them Sugar, Ifitenge, Vaka kumfumu and a brown envelope, headman ichigayo-Bingo!
I cant stop listening to Donchi Kubeba by Dandy!
@19
Kissing dust made simple says:
Mon Sep 26 at 3:42 pm
”
…. No one put these ‘under 5s’ in their equation and the results were devastating.” Strange you refer to them as “under 5s” when they were capable of inflicting a devastating blow at the ballot box!
those opinion polls were meant to influence pf supprters into believing that there was no need to go and vote since mmd was going to win anyway.
Fake opinion polls given a platform by the public media. My suggestion to PF are,.
1. Appoint professional Permanent Secretaries
2. Abolish the position of deputy minister and DC (District Cadre)
3. Devolve power to Local Authorities after capacity building them
4. Allow all Zambians, not only PF members, have equitable access to opportunities available
5. Avoid the abuse of public resources on party campaigns and never say ” if you want development vote for this PF MP or Cllr ” during by elections as Zambia is a multi_party democracy. I end here for now. Viva PF, Viva Zambia.
The saying of “DONT KUBEBA” also affected the out come of opinion polls. A number of people clad in MMD attire where openly confessing they will vote for the ruling party wen in reality they knew they would vote for PF. Those conducting polls where also blinded by the slight increase in the Economic performance, not knowing that the improvement was only felt in urban areas where unfortunately people had already made up their mind to remove MMD from office. In short, it was not that simple to conduct an opinion poll. These are some of the errors you find in social Sciences, fake assumptions.That is why I respect Natural Sciences, which led man to land on the moon.lol!
Confirmed on QFM news, fugitive William Banda is arrested in Chipata. Yazanda nomba guys!
Maswahu post election evaluation has elements of truth however, opinions were mere speculative perseptions based on happenings at that time. We need not waste energy on that as the truth is before us all. The electronic media and ZNBC, TIMES and DAILY are gvt media that require privitisation but gvt to retain golden shares in 1 or 2 of them. The post newspaper was extremely unprofessional in their reportage and privitised media will add value to private media coverage arena. The path taken by the new govt so far from press release is encouraging and we hope they will match with action not only to be heard but to be SEEN for the benefit of the whole nation.
Just saw lifwekelo on Muvi tv apologizing to Mr Sata, these guys are unbelievable!!!
William banda arrested in Chipata (found with two Prados ABZ and ABR, 3 guns and K143m – balance from campaign money?), Lifwekelo apologises, Chifire resigns, what next? Chanda, Dora, Siulapwa?
Chipimo on ZNBC, VIVA next prez….go barly start making your presence felt. HH say something, where are you? Licking your wounds after ‘one mad man’ as you called him won elections? You would have made a very good Vice president and president come 2016….Alas, u misjudged.
The opinion pollsters where all part of the “Donchi kubeba” strategy. The idea was to fool RB and MMD into complacency and catch them by surprise
@40
To we says:
Mon Sep 26 at 8:50 pm
“The opinion pollsters where all part of the “Donchi kubeba” strategy…” Sounds plausible!
An opinion poll is just as it is termed—“opinion” based on random sample data, therefore it doesnot mean that opinion polls are a true reflection of expected results, there is no need to castigate a fool for being foolish when they realise but rather advise them that in future do a more conclusive survey, read the mood of the people and eventually donchi kubeba..because after shouting loud and cursing..now you have to eat humble pie..
You big bishops with your big pulpits have let us. You should have been honest to tell us that it was more for your ambitions that RB won and not what God was really saying to the church. Shame on you.
A very well written article. The ruling MMD forgot about the youth and the poorest of the poor. They thought that campaigning to the middle class would assure them victory! Well, they were wrong! The people who voted for Sata form part of the 70% that live in abject poverty, the youths who saw a lack of vision and direction in the MMD as well as educated hard working Zambians who had enough of the bullsh!t. I have always voted for the opposition – first it was UPND under Mazoka and then it was Donch all 3 times!! I am not illiterate nor am but I am a Patriotic Zambian and to answer the question posed by the author, my loyalties extend only to mother Zambia and which ever leader promises to put the country first. Power to the people!!
Dr. Simutanyi predicdted a PF win at the beginning of the year. Unfortunately, he allowed himself to be bought by the MMD and he could not resist the kwacha. Alas, like biblical Esau, he sold his birthright for a few peices of Kwacha. Simutanyi has nothing left of him he sold his integrity to RB. Lets hope he will use the kwachas he got wisely.
Opinion Polls were also part of the Donchi Kubeba stratergy. Very Effective congrats guys at last even R.B has shown us that he was also part of the Donchi Crew hence defection before a successor is found welcome aboard the the boat Mr. Ex Presido Dr. Rupiah Bwezenai Yamunyokolo njala Mambala Banda, Dola Slit joined the race a long time ago that is why she was always dizzy during campaigns. Next time listen to Muteteka the natural successor to Levy. By the way Moses is a name also found in the bible not Rupiah, Doolar, Ronnie
“Every generation needs a new revolution” – Thomas Jefferson. The fresh minds that swung the vote were not influenced by past appeasement, or past corruption. They were simply looking to a future devoid of the present deficiencies that they were feeling in their lives. Let’s remember that we are only of repute for but a short time. If we have integrity, however, that lasts a lifetime. I am mindful here of the likes of late Mwanakatwe, Kapwepwe, and in our times, the consistency of Elias Chipimo Jr. God bless our Republic!
It is a pity we will have kaponya ministers now professionals what do you think???
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