By Gray Soko
In his farewell speech RB posed a few questions about the MMD’s defeat which the MMD postmortem meeting will undoubtedly ponder over. RB posed the following questions:
-had the MMD become complacent ?
-had the MMD failed to hear ( despite its claim to be a listening party)?
– had the MMD become grey and lacking in ideas?
– had the MMD lost momentum ( after 20years in power ) ?
Anyone can be clever after the event and I do not claim to have the best answers to RB’s questions but I feel that the MMD, like UNIP in 1991, suffered from serious intelligence blunders. I suggest these blunders were around the following factors:
Lack of knowledge of the opposition
The great military strategist Sun Tzu said that if you know neither yourself nor the enemy, you are a fool and will meet defeat in battle. The MMD campaign was almost exclusively targeted at Sata as an individual and largely ignored the fact that the PF was an organization with structures and personnel in other parts of the country who were vigorously recruiting or strengthening its membership. Surrogate personalities such as Chimba Chimba 111, Mumbi, Lifwekelo, Chifire and Siulapwa were therefore wrongly seen as assets in the arsenal against Sata and ultimately the PF.
Overconfidence
Having been in power for 20years there was overconfidence of the party’s invincibility. Vice-President then George Kunda even declared that the MMD would rule Zambia for a very long time, if not forever! This overconfidence was also reflected during the election campaign when the MMD leadership declared in Luapula that it would win all the fourteen seats. As it turned out, it lost in all but one of the constituencies. Was this overconfidence based on fact or falsification of intelligence for political or personal purposes?
Ignorance/Failure to comprehend the facts
The economic parameters that were being presented to show that there was “development” and therefore the party was popular with the people failed to acknowledge the fact that there were still very high unemployment and poverty levels in the country. The majority of the people were still living below the poverty line. There is also the dangerous indication of the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer. The country’s elevation to a lower middle income country status does not mean the benefits of the economic growth are trickling down to the majority.
Statistics on unemployment, poverty levels, mortality or the food basket requirements from the government’s own Central Statistical office or credible NGOs like the Jesuit Centre for Theological Reflection (JCTR ) were often downplayed.
Gullibility
Great prominence was given to favourable comments from diplomats and international institutions about Zambia’s economic growth and the public media in particular made repeated headlines of favourable election victory predictions from institutions such as the Economic Intelligence Unit, Stanbic Bank and even on the eve of the election quoted the Washington Post as predicting MMD victory. There was little if any coverage of predictions which stated otherwise.
It is however possible that the correct intelligence was available but was either ignored or worse, spinned to support what the party wanted to hear. UNIP and now the MMD failed to see the writing on the wall. I hope the PF will not fall into similar intelligence blunders.
True True True:((:((
Bitter pill to swallow
MMD,and RB in particular missed an opportunity to transform Zambia’s institutional LEGAL FRAMEWORK-the NEW CONSTITUTION. Now, PF cabinet is today, with lessons learned from these elections, what would be MMD, now in opposition’s view (George Kunda) on the need for the TRUE INDEPENDENCE from executive of the ECZ, JUDICIARY, Legislature ,the police and (all constitutional officers)”to reflect truly, Institutions OF the people BY the people FOR the people” in a NEW CONSTITUTION not forgetting the Bill of RIGHTS? Do u think as aez an urgent need to advocate and advance for this process/CAUSE? I’m mindful that this is not the right time and forum but our current dilemma, (SATA had literally to fight hard to get the presidency from RB’s rigging till last hour) Shame!!
powerful Mr Soko, whatever goes up must come down! Zambians belong to God. So God can not let a few selfish individuals determine its destiny.
The desperation of MMD to beat Sata was just too much. They went any mile just to crush Sata, engaged anybody they find, but they failed. It must be painful. They rejoiced when the pact failed and chose to use HH. They engaged Chanda Chimba, Siulapwa, Musicians name them. It must be painful. I am sorry RB, HH and MMD
Actually it was not desperation to beat Sata, it desperation to give themselves time to cover up their misdeeds and plunder.Who in their normal mind removes abuse of office laws? What did they want to cover up?
Got to agree with you Gray especially about Sata. Remember those headlines about his health and all? How about his education and all?
If I was a villager I would be thinking bloomin hell! So these muppets want my vote yet they are saying all this RuBbish about people who are not educated? Let alone give me ichitenge and disappear?
Am surprised that most of the MMD VUVUZELAS are not commenting…
BANKS EXPLOITING CUSTOMERS
Banks are exploiting their customers by paying low interest (ranging from 4% to 8%) on deposit. This is well below inflation rate. They however lend out such cheap money to business at about 23% (more than twice what they pay as interest)! This should not be allowed. No wonder we have too many banks on the market today.
Bank of Zambia should take its appropriate regulatory position and put a cap on the interest chargeable to borrowers. The current practice makes depositors net losers because their money loses value while in the custody of the banks. Meanwhile the banks are making massive profits at the expense of the depositor. Bank of Zambia where are you? Economic Association of Zambia where are you?
Concerned Depositor.
This is spot on!
You forgot another crucial point. They could not differentiate between genuine reporting and mediocre reporting from many organisations. Those that told them the truth, e.g. Post, were villified; those that told them “the massaged truth” e.g. LT, they were praised. I challenge you; this article would not have been published prior to elections. Such is the problem with these politicians. When we commented, we were told all sorts of names; we never voted but you know what, we made calls to all our loved ones to vote pabwato. Even a single vote was necessary. The challenge is: be professional regardless of the changing environment; be objective; maybe you wanted a Don’t kubeba reporting ba LT; but it made a lot us bakaponya very angry.
That being true in many ways, but then again remember politicans say things to wow in the voters, they knew their hour had past,even here Labour knew the british people were fed up, but pretended they were gonna win. Yes MMD & HHs tonga tribal party were targetting President Sata, it really got out of hand people began to see that both RB & under5 were really worried about HE Sata, and thus saw him as a better man. As the saying goes you can,t put a good man down, they ganged up on him, guess what under5 cannot contiune to call the president a mad man or go into an election just to damage Sata,s chances: Under5 will have to address him as HE the president .how bitter a test it will leave in his mouth, Tepano tuli alalila mochi ngombe
Can you imagine; to date i feel so angry each time i open times of Zambia or Daily mail. I may never buy them newspapers again. Even if they were to report something serious, i would wait intil i read it elsewhere. The point is we get affected by mediocre media coverage. That hurts a lot no wonder you are seeing retributions in Zambia coz words hurt and continue hurting even after fake apologies.
So complacent they became, such that George Kunda could not even want people to know how many jobs had been created for the youths saying such actions were meant to embarass the government, yet RB promised Ndola rural pipo thousands of jobs during the by election that ushered him in. Where on earth could a Vice President think like that? Then whats the purpose of being in government if you cant keep track of and make public such an important macroeconomic indicator? Then how do you expect the citizens to judge your performance? I think MMD started thinking we were all fools like they were. Lets move forward country men and women, we’ve no time for useless post mortems over the obvious. Shame!!! They must have seen it coming, or else they were foo.ls.
they have even failed to form a cabinet.
failure nafuti nafuti. Please learn a lesson. Please study the Zambian presidency. How many days did it take Chiluba, Mwanawasa, RB to make a cabinet?
Lets wait and see how they move on from here. There will be power struggle. I can see a few people resigning becasue they can`t get party presidency. Then a few rats jumping ship because they can no longer stand being in opposition.
If they are not careful, they willend up like UNIP which will be a shame really!
Cabnet announced. Willie Nsanda?
@ 15 Wilie is a minister for transport and something…..
Cabinet reduced to 19 from 22. Hello MMD cadres!!!!! Now we will tell you! Was 22 really necessary? And, how about calling for more constituencies? Pathetic people! Down you go like UNIP!
@16 Bragga. That was a surprise in other words. Not sure we needed him to be honest. Thank God there ain`t many rats in there.
# 15 Italian Mafia, or sorry! Sanda is Minister Transport if the very last bit I got is to go by
I hear the conference is cancelled.
Many observers warned the MMD that Rupiah Banda’s UNIP style of governance would lead them to a humiliating downfall. They did not listen for they were too drunk with power and arrogance and thought they owned Zambians.
The other thing is, if RB had kept his word truthfully that he was only going to serve the remaining part of the term left after Mwanawasa’s death he would have earned respect from the people of Zambia, but unfortunately his greed, ego, corrupt and dictatorial tendencies took control of him and today he is a sorry sight and will never recover.
Panji Kaunda , sebastian Zulu ministers my foot! Veep Scott.
Tune in to Qfm. Wina Ministry of Chiefs and Traditional Affairs, Sichinga Commerce
This is what MMD supports fail to understand, they still have the mentality of a one party state. This is a wake up call to any part in the land, the people have the power to get reed of you if you become too complacent. I’m sure majority of us here were MMD at some point until Chiluba started faltering and didn’t want to listen to anyone but his own mind.
Bragga Panji is only deputy. No worries with Guy though. Theman has been with Sata all the while. Did you want him to appoint George Kunda? Chwe chwe chwe! Now Kubeba!
we now have Mwanawasa Stadium in Ndola and Mwanawansa General Hospital in Lusaka
GBM Minister of Defence
Panji Kaunda deputy
Joseph Kasonde Healt
Foreign Kashimbwili
Agric Inano Chenda
Labour Shamenda
Cpommerce Robert Sichinga
Mines Simusa
infomation Given Lubinda
Education Dr. Ndwase phiri
Lands Sialuma
Local Gov Prof luo nkandu
Community Joseph Katema
Ministry of Chiefs Mrs. Inonge wina
Transport Willie Nsanda
Central Philp comasamu
RB AND HIS CAMPAIGN TEAM HAD WRONG STRATEGIES. THE WHO WHOLE CAMPAIGN WAS FULL OF NOTHING IT WAS LIKE THEY WERE LAUCHING A NEW PRODUCT ON THE MARKET WHOSE TARGET GROUP WAS NOT KNOWN. EVEN THE GUYS WHO WERE AT THE SO CALLED CAMPAIGN CENTRE WERE NOTHING BUT DULL AND TIRED CHARACTERS WITHOUT ZEAL TO CONVINCE THE WOULD BE VOTERS WHOSE MAIN INTEREST WAS TO LINE THEIR POCKETS. CAMPAIGN MATERAILS WERE JUST BEING DISTRIBUTED WITHOUT VERIFICATION. THERE WAS NO LINK BETWEEN MMD CAMPAIGNERS AND AND THE VOTERS AT GRASS ROOT LEVEL. THE CHAPS WERE JUST DRIVING AROUND STREETS BLURING MUSIC AND HAD NO DIRECTOR IN ADDITION TO SHOWING OFF THE MATERAILS THEY HAD. PF ON THE OTHER HAND HAD NOT MUCH TO OFFER IN TERMS OF CAMPAIGN MATERAILS BUT THEIR CAMPAIGN WAS EFFECTIVE AND REACHED THE INTENDED TARGET GROUP.
WAS IT NECESSARY TO BRING IN THE SO CALLED IMAGE BUILDERS FOR RB? WHOEVER WAS ADVISING ON SUCH CRAZY MARKETING IDEAS WAS OUT OF TOUCH WITH THE REALITY. IT WAS LIKE REBRANDING A PRODUCT THAT HAD REACHED ITS MATURITY. MAWE THE ZAMBIAN ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT CALL FOR IAMGE BUILDERS. EVEN THE DONS WHO WERE APPOINTED CONTRIBUTED TOO MUCH THEY THOUGHT THEY HAD THE MONOPOLY OF KNOWLEDGE. MMD SHOT ITSELF IN THE LEG AND THOUGHT BY DISCREDITING SATA WOULD WIN THEM ELECTIONS. WHAT A WRONG WAY OF DOING THINGS. INFACT THEY MMD EFFECTIVELY CAMPAIGNED FOR SATA AND PF.
I can find senior citizen.Has he gone into exile?
Senior Citizen was an OOP operative. He has now switched sides just like ZNBC. Even Chanda Chimba the fool is likely to change sides.
THEY JUST BECAME CORRUPT AND BELIEVED IN THE INVICIBILTY OF THE INCUMBENT. THEY PLANNED TO RIG AND THEY WERE READY TO DO IT IF THEY WERE ALLOWED. AND TO THINK I WAS SO BLIND AND SUPPORTED THEM OVER H.E. MCS. SORRY.
Please do not give Chanda Chimba the Zelo a chance to convert. The best way to punish him is to deny him the RVs. Make sure you don’t refill is medication.
This Post mortem is a waste of time. Just go to the Copperbelt and you will see the reason why the MMD has lost. All the townships have no access roads, rubbish is never collected. Potholes are in City centres. The Copperbelt used to be a sanitary example for the rest of the country but MMD neglected it so much it now looks like any rural area
Excellent analysis! I’m not sure we should necessarily crucify the opinion poll people as a number us actually were shocked that PF won. Polls depend largely on where who and how many. My view generally is polls were +/- right. MMD failed to manage the critical last 3 weeks which interests the indifferent non-partisan or indecisive electorate. This group moved to PF enmasse after 1. Dora’s Soft-Bum-gate which MMD never addressd unlike PF who noted public outcry on their Manifesto clause for senior public servants to be PF members 2. People were so infuriated with William Banda whom MMD put effectively as a key campaign manager and MMD never apologised or showed remorse in those tense last days
mwaiyitaya ba RB, you chose to listen to your minions instead of the masses. Now you are worried that the walls are closing in and that you might go to jail. Mmmm “nasonta namu manda na nkaaaaaa. Helena nalikwebele yeee”