Who will win Zambia’s 2026 election?

By Sishuwa Sishuwa

The answer is that, at this stage, I do not know. There are so many variables that are yet to be determined, though it is fair to say that as of today, many people in Zambia may not know who they will vote for in the 2026 election, but they already know who they will not vote for.

I am not persuaded, however, by the bold assertion being made by some that President Hakainde Hichilema will be re-elected. Such assumptions are, in my view, based on wishful thinking, dressed in certainties, rather than concrete data and a careful consideration of the unfolding political landscape. This is because the empirical evidence, based on the current political landscape, simply does not support such a conclusion.

In a sense, Hichilema recognises the changing political tide against him and this might explain why he has devised several ugly strategies to help him retain power. These include weakening the political opposition through the abuse of the police (e.g. endless arrests, court cases, and repeated denial of their right to public assembly) and destroying the main opposition party using the Registrar of Societies (I am aware that the government recently changed the names of PF office bearers from Miles Sampa to Robert Chawinga etc, with the planned intention of expelling both Miles, followed by a by-election in Matero, and Edgar Lungu).

Other strategies are packing the electoral commission with ruling party supporters to possibly help manipulate the election; and packing the Constitutional Court with regime-friendly judges – Hichilema is about to appoint three more judges after he got rid of three appointed by his predecessor to create room for more of his own appointees – who may potentially uphold a rigged election.

The narrative that there is no alternative to unseat Hichilema is largely peddled by supporters of the ruling party to make themselves feel better and ignores the extent to which the president has gone to destroy the opposition in the last three years. If there is no credible opposition, then why the hell is Hichilema so desperate to destroy the PF?! In my view, this narrative is deliberately designed to achieve two objectives.

The first is to help create knowledge of or identify the person seen by many voters as a suitable alternative so that the ruling party may target such a person for destruction, as they have done with other opposition leaders. Nearly all opposition leaders have been arrested under the UPND on a variety of what appears to be trumped-up charges. If evidence emerged today showing that many voters are gravitating towards a person named HaHa for presidency, it is not inconceivable that all manner of charges or other accusations will be brought against the said HaHa.

The second motive behind the creation of the narrative that there is no opposition is to psyche the minds of Zambians into accepting a possible flawed Hichilema victory. I won’t be surprised if the authorities decided to ban parallel vote tabulation ahead of the 2026 election! Such is their desperation! If the UPND plans to rig the election, then Zambians are being prepared to accept the results using the notion that the outcome was a foregone conclusion since there was no opposition.

It is quite telling that both the UPND leadership and supporters are expressing confidence that voters will re-elect their party not because it has delivered its campaign promises but because there is no opposition. The idea that voters are so in love with Hichilema that they will vote for him, even if he fails to meet their aspirations, is quite insulting. What has he actually done to get re-elected?

In my view, Hichilema is politically insecure, and he and his supporters know that they are in trouble. When it comes to the bigger national issues, such as safeguarding the country’s cherished democracy, getting the best out of Zambia’s mineral wealth, respecting the constitution and the rule of law, fighting corruption beyond rhetoric, genuine promotion of national unity and equitable distribution of appointments to public service positions, sorting out the cost-of-living crisis and the deplorable conditions of life for most Zambians, Hichilema has, so far, lamentably failed.

The frustrating thing for the ruling party is that they do not know, for now, who will be Hichilema’s main political opponent in 2026 and the role that former president Edgar Lungu – yes, he remains a factor, just like Rupiah Banda was in the 2015 election – will play in influencing the outcome.

In a sense, Hichilema is in a dilemma or catch-22: to use the courts to block Lungu and risk being defeated by a candidate endorsed by the excluded former president, or to let Lungu stand and either risk the embarrassment of being defeated by his predecessor or hope that Lungu would split the opposition vote and consequently allow Hichilema to snatch a close victory?

The precarious situation in which Hichilema finds himself today is a self-inflicted problem. Hichilema had a lot of goodwill and all he needed to do was to deliver or make serious efforts to deliver on his campaign promises, and take the people, from whom his executive authority derives, into his confidence where there are challenges. Unfortunately, he has messed up big time.

What might help Hichilema is the disunity of the opposition. If opposition parties are able to put country first, work together, and field a common and credible presidential candidate in 2026, then we might as well start calling Hichilema ‘former president of Zambia’.

Do I regret voting for Hichilema in 2021? No. As I have argued previously, the best thing about electing Hichilema president was that we are no longer distracted by his threat or potential to be better than those who came before him and we can now start looking for suitable, if better, alternatives. If Hichilema did not become President of Zambia, we would have lived with some degree of guilty for not giving him the chance to govern. We could have also succumbed to certain narratives that suggest that some regions of Zambia can provide better leaders than others.

To some extent, it is not regrettable that the man got the opportunity to lead. Now we know that in order to develop, Zambia does not need a given region or an individual from a particular ethnic group in State House. The country simply needs competent men and women who are patriots, have a feasible plan, and are committed to restoring the nation’s dignity, where they come from notwithstanding.

In a certain weird and perverted sense, it is good that Zambians gave Hichilema a chance to reveal who he truly is. The Chewa-speaking people of Zambia have a saying that “The best way of proving the potency of a man who claims that he is able to achieve an erection is for the woman to undress for him.” In August 2021, Zambians undressed for Hichilema after a decade-and-half of claiming that he is capable of taking them to greater heights!