By Chimwemwe Mwanza
The SADC region has barely digested the demise of the Botswana Democratic Party whose vice grip domination of post-independence politics south of the Kazungula bridge is well documented. Strange things do happen in politics. Amidst this pain, the mop haired ‘Teflon Don’ from Mara Largo chose the worst moment to add more grief.
Donald Trump’s victory over Harris was emphatic-he pulverised the outgoing US Vice President. For all the pundit’s prediction of a close race, this was a one-sided contest. It boggles the mind that the poor, including Latinos-whom he has threatened to deport en masse once he assumes office, gave him an overwhelming mandate. That’s Trump for you. He is a political hypnotist who has mastered the art of exploiting the electorate’s grievances. Sadly, the consolation that Harris ran a remarkable race given Trump’s imposing command of US politics is inconsequential. History is unkind to losers.
Never mind that he will become the oldest person inaugurated President in US politics, Trump goes into the history books as the only second US President to return to the White House after Grover Cleveland (1885 -1889 and 1893 – 1897). With a senate and house majority in his grip, he now has the wind in his sails to transform America into his own image. Should we be fearful? The US has one of the most stable constitutions in the world and this is its strongest guardrail to political overreach.
However, a recent ruling by the right leaning Supreme court insulating a President from culpability to any decisions made while in office, means that Trump who is renowned for his autocratic inclinations will arrive in Washington DC emboldened to desecrate all democratic norms.Let’s pause for reflection. Why should US politics matter to a Zambian that is struggling to eke out a living amidst a myriad of socio-economic challenges including load and water shedding blues? Say
what you may, the outcome of the recent US elections is a big deal for every global citizen.
The anticipated shift in the global economic and geo-political landscape which is already in the making will have huge ramifications on Africa and by extention Zambia. Buoyed by a monstrous US$25 trillion economy which constitutes 25% of the global total in terms of nominal GDP, Trump has promised to lob economic grenades on China-his most potent adversary outside the US. Who can forget his characterisation of Covid-19 as a China virus? Five years later, he still faults China for mishandling this pandemic, a factor he blames for his electoral defeat to Joe Biden in 2020.
Don’t forget, there is no 21 st century politician who knows better how to exact revenge on his perceived enemies than Trump. ‘After love, the other word I like the most begins with a T. I will impose tariffs on Chinese goods by 200 and in some cases by more than 300%,’ he railed to an enthusiastic campaign crowd in Detroit, Michigan. If there is anything we gleaned from his previous tenure in the White House, this man barely issues empty threats which explains why XI Jimping is twiddling his thumbs at the prospect of Trump’s inauguration on 20 January 2025.
Implications of looming US/China trade war on Africa
What will be the most likely implications of a US/China trade war on the global economy? According to recent research by S&P global, the probability of an all-out trade war would do serious damage to the global economy as protectionist actions escalate. Countries imposing tariffs and countries subject to tariffs would experience loses in economic warfare while countries on the sidelines would experience collateral damage.
A potential slowdown of growth to China’s economy resulting from the looming trade war would gravely impact Africa. In recent years, the continent has benefited immensely from China’s largesse.
According to the International Monetary Fund, China has over the last 20 years become Sub-sahara Africa’s largest bilateral trading partner. Around 20% of the region’s exports now go to China and about 16% of Africa’s imports come from China. This relationship amounted to a record US$282 billion in total trade volume in 2023.
In addition, China’s voracious demand for mineral resources and other commodities is what’s kept most economies in Sub-Saharan Africa humming. In Zambia’s case mining is the main driver of the country’s economy contributing about 12% to GDP. According to the United Nations COMTRADE database on international trade, Zambia’s exports of copper to China which contributed about 70% of the country’s revenue, amounted to US$1.77 billion during 2023. The Zambian government’s
determination to increase output from the current 480,000 tons/annum to 3 million tons/annum by year 2030 is premised on the anticipated rise in copper demand by China and the US markets.
Other countries such as Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda and Uganda have emerged as major exporters of coffee into China. In addition to trade, these countries including Zambia have benefited immensely from various Chinese funded infrastructure projects which in turn have contributed to growth. Against this background, the significance of symbiotic trade relations between Africa and China which are enhanced by a strong Chinese bottom pull can’t be overstated. As such, Zambia like many countries in sub-Saharan Africa can ill afford to trade with a weakened China.
Most important, what does the future hold for the Africa Growth Opportunity Act (AGOA) which was passed by US congress as part of the trade and development Act of 2000? It’s anybody’s guess. For a leader that has a penchant for transactional politics, Trump has made public his disdain for the continent and its leaders. Be that as it may, one can’t even begin to quantify the importance of AGOA which provides duty free access to the US market for almost all products exported from more than 40 eligible sub-Saharan African countries.
Should the rest of African states including Zambia surrender to their fate and wait for Trump’s next stormy 4 years to pass? Well, just like the Covid pandemic, Trump’s anticipated stormy reign will pass in no time. However, there is a subtle message in Trump’s victory and developments in Botswana which leaders across the continent must try to decode.
Voter choices are always influenced by socio-economic factors. On the campaign trail, Trump strategically coined a simple question to rile the electorate into action. ‘Are you better off now than you were 4 years ago?’ Harris could barely muster a response. This question ultimately knocked her of her perch. As they say, the rest is history.
*Mwanza is an avid soccer fan and enjoys reading political history. He no longer eats game meat.
Trump’s anticipated trade war with China may just be a blessing in disguise for Zambia and Africa. China may simply increase trade volumes with Africa, which is a good thing!
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Dream on
The Lobito Corridor supported by Biden may be a non starter. It has no support from Trump
But they need the cheap Katanga copper, lithium, and cobalt for Musk’s Tesla industry like never before.
Lithium is actually everywhere; Its been found in Nigeria Ghana, DRC, Zimbabwe, Namibia, Tanzania. Which just means it is in Zambia because nearly all surrounding countries have it.
Agreed. DR Congo, Angola and Zambia need to develop this corridor for themselves and for their own interests. US involvement in this is tantamount to get a hijack!
There are two sides to a coin. Why not dwell on his positive side and move on. I too hate African leaders’ mentality.
The author projects facts precisely with Trump’s unpredictability. The world oder is upside down – who can tell what tomorrow will bring, these are days of smal things.
For the first time in the history of politics, the electorate hope that the winning candidate will not keep his promises. He promises hell but if he delivers heaven, it will be good for US and the world. Many have promised heaven and delivered hell.
Mr.Mwanza
An interesting article you have written. However, you may need to do more research next time you publish an article of this nature.
President Trump never threatened to deport Latinos. Please look it up. He promised to deport those who broke the United States immigration laws by crossing the border illegally. Most of the Latinos in this country got his point, that’s why they voted for him.
Furthermore, it’s not just illegal Latinos who will be deported but everyone…Chinese, French, Africans, Caribbeans etc.
He is simply compelled by the constitution to do so.
Mr Lubasi are you aspiring for the job of Trump’s spokesperson? Why would an African go to all this trouble explaining the intricasies of Crazy Trump’s poisture?
I think Trump will want regime change of his own in Zambia so the only ones feeling the fear are those who thought K Harris will keep them in power come the next elections. We are patiently waiting na ma pop corn pa ka sofa so.
Trump will die in office
He’s no good for the world geopolitically and for the world’s economy.A European paper had the right image of this feeling where Lady Liberty was drawn with a gun pointed to its head.
Trump has previously stated that he sees the State of Israel as small and wants to make it bigger. But how does he plan to achieve that without stopping the ongoing war?
There seems to be a contradiction in his words. In my search for clarity on the ownership of this land, I found myself questioning: Who owned the land first, Israel or Palestine? The history of this conflict is complex and spans generations. This article has been incredibly helpful in shedding light on the long and tumultuous history of the region, providing much-needed context to better understand the situation. Who owned the land first, Israel or Palestine
People opted for an open thief called Donald J. Trump instead of subtle but dangerous robbers called Democrats. Besides why about another country’s president. Mali is managing and so is Burkina Faso…. stop being cry babies.