By Chanda Chisala
The UPND seems to be trying very hard to decisively lose the upcoming general elections of 2026, through their stubborn insistence of amending the constitution, which is confusing even to some people in their loyal base. The only thing that might comfort their leaders is that the strongest alliance of opposition parties is trying even harder to lose the next elections, through their equally stubborn insistence that President Lungu should contest the next elections!
You would think that the UPND would have learnt from the similar mistakes of the past ruling parties. The Chiluba MMD government became very unpopular when they stubbornly pushed the infamous “third term” bid for Mr. Chiluba by proposing to change the two-term limit in the Zambian constitution. The resulting loss of popularity and the ensuing splits in the party is what led to Anderson Mazoka rising so quickly in popularity that he came within a whisker of defeating the ruling party candidate (Levy Mwanawasa), despite all the government resources that were corruptly abused by the MMD in nationwide campaigns. In fact, some people have persuasively argued that Mr. Mazoka did win that election.
After the MMD, the Patriotic Front party decided to also imitate them by introducing their own controversial amendment proposal (branded “Bill 10”), similarly designed with the idea of favoring the incumbent party. Like the third term push of their predecessors, this naked attempt at dishonestly consolidating power only accelerated their declining popularity and united all kinds of factions of civil society against them. Without rigging, Mr. Lungu lost his election by a near-record margin.
The UPND has apparently decided to put themselves under the same curse, and their inexplicable stubbornness is also energizing and uniting civil society against them (including the usual non-partisan groups like the Catholic Church, Law Association of Zambia, etc). One has to wonder if there is something in the water at State House that just makes people become irrational in a politically suicidal way. Instead of focusing on solving your big problem of explaining why your economic promises did not materialize, you decide to make your problems even bigger by imitating the worst political actions of your predecessors?
Amazingly, when the opposition saw the ruling party making this self-inflicted mistake, they said “hold our beer: we can show you how to make even bigger mistakes.” The decision of the strongest alliance in the opposition to activate their “Plan B” of stubbornly pushing former president Edgar Lungu as their presidential candidate is a much worse tactical blunder than anything the UPND is doing.
At a time when the major weakness of the opposition is not having a credible candidate that is well-known nationally, they decide to show their own lack of seriousness by pursuing a strategy that cannot possibly work. There is no chance that the Constitutional Court will allow Edgar Lungu to stand in the next elections after they ruled against his eligibility to stand under the current constitution. Not only is it the same judges who ruled against him 7-0 still there, there is no real new argument that can even slightly tempt them to change their position.
Those opposition leaders who are promising their followers that Lungu will be allowed to stand are only revealing their character. For example, Mr. Sean Tembo, a spokesperson of the “Tonse alliance” of some major opposition parties, boldly promised their supporters that “Edgar Lungu shall be on the ballot” in 2026 because the Court will overturn its previous ruling. This is a promise that they obviously know will not come to pass, so why are they giving their supporters a false hope?
If they know that this promise won’t happen, then they are being deceitful politicians who are worse than the people they are trying to replace. They are already showing the same habit of making promises that they already know will never be fulfilled. If you can do that without feeling guilty, then why even accuse HH of making false promises?
On the other hand, if they sincerely believe that there is a good chance the Constitutional Court will overturn its unanimous ruling, then it shows they are too unrealistic to be in leadership. A leader has to always demonstrate that he has a firm grip on reality and does not live in a world of wishful thinking.
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The author, Chanda Chisala, is the Founder of Zambia Online and Khama Institute. He is formerly a John S. Knight Fellow at Stanford University and Visiting Scholar to the Hoover Institution, a policy think tank at Stanford. You can follow him on Facebook or X @chandachisala.
All I know is new and understanding leaders are needed in most parties
Politicians never learn and that’s why we should change them often and for the same reasons – like diapers!
A ruling of 7-0 is like Manchester United these days, my goodness! You see how things change and how things fall apart??? It can happen to anyone. Manchester United was the most feared team throughout the 90s right up to some time in 2015! Today where are they??? If they are not careful they will be relegated to division 1. As for our clueless opposition all they need to do is focus on the economy and they will get the votes they need. Look at how Sata did it?
Stop talking about colonial soccer. Where’s Roan United, Kabwe Warriors? Once the producer of stars like Ucar. Nchanga Rangers? Crying for Manchester United is the same as a slave crying “our house is on fire!” When it is his master’s house that’s burning.