By Kalima Nkonde
I consider this article as the most important Op-Ed I have written on Lusaka Times as it could influence the direction that our country takes for the better if my advice,like that of others on the issue of withdrawing Bill 10, is taken. I have been prompted by the Minister of Justice, Mr. Given Lubinda’s challenge to people who want Bill 10 to be withdrawn to come up with reasons why the bill should be withdrawn.
“Can you show me what they (Catholic Bishops) said is the reason for me to withdraw. Those who are saying ‘withdraw’ must show us the reasons why we must withdraw.” Mr. Lubinda told Grevazio Zulu in a ZNBC Sunday interview.
I have taken up the Minister’s challenge and will come up with economic reasons why it should be withdrawn because it is not in the best interests of ordinary Zambians. I also appeal to Members of Parliament to carefully read this article before they cast the most consequential vote in their lives.
Although the Minister has said that those opposing the Bill have not come up with reasons, from the little that I have read thus far, there have been political and legal reasons suggested by various players. The main arguments against the bill have focused on its threat to Zambian democracy, the flawed process followed, the likelihood of compromising the electoral system and generally, its divisiveness.
One of the architects of Africa’s best crafted constitution (in my view) – the Kenyan Constitution- Zambian Professor Muna Ndulo, a leading Constitutional law expert , is critical of Bill 10 and has described it as too broad, manipulative and overreaching.
“Bill 10 is manipulative and attempts to deceive the people of Zambia and create a dictatorship under the guise of constitutional reform. Bill 10 is designed to remove parliamentary oversight over the presidency and thereby install a constitutional dictatorship. It attempts to manipulate the electoral system to ensure that the ruling party remains in power in perpetuity,” Professor Ndulo, observed.
The Constitution amendment bill has also been opposed by the civil society and law fraternity. There has been a cross section of independent voices in Zambia including the following: Zambia Conference of Catholic Bishops (ZCCB), the Council of Churches in Zambia (CCZ) which is the umbrella organisation for mainstream Protestant Churches, the Law Association of Zambia and many others, for a variety of reasons.
As a patriotic Zambian, having read both the original and re- gazetted bills, I would like to make my humble contribution to the debate mainly from the economic and risk management angles. I will demonstrate why the bill is such a flawed, indefensible and a poorly timed piece of proposed legislation, given the economic problems that Zambia is facing today. I hope Justice Minister, Mr. Given Lubinda, PF MPs and the current administration will seriously reflect on the issues raised in this article as Bill 10 is a double edged sword.
May I from the outset state my caveat regarding my views on the constitution. I intend to be objective. I am not writing to criticize the ruling PF government at all. I am criticizing the contents of the document and its consequences .In other words, I am indifferent as to who is in power now but rather concerned about who may be in power sometime in the future under the new Constitution.
It should be borne in mind that the constitution is a national document and that it should stand the test of time. The motive for amendments should never be short sighted or driven by winning the next election or to serve the interests of a certain section of community but the entire society. In addition, only the most naive will say for certain who will be in power next year or in future? The world including politics are very unpredictable. Who knew about Covid-19 and its impact a year ago?
The issue is that, if bad amendments are made, they may be abused by whoever is in power sometime in the future. In my view, and from the risk management point of view, all parties involved in the debate should operate and consider the worst case scenario. As a democracy, we should assume and imagine the possibility of electing an incompetent, reckless, irresponsible and narcissistic President sometime in the future. And the question we should ask ourselves is: what is the likelihood that he or she is going to abuse a weak constitution which has no proper checks and balances? The answer is certainly yes. It is on this premise of the risk of some of the clauses that Bill 10 proposes being abused for political gain by such a President being almost guaranteed, that I am opposing Bill 10 in its current form and why it should be withdrawn
I have noticed that nobody has argued for or against the bill from the economic angle. In the light of the dire economic situation that we are facing, in my view, the economy should be a top priority in whatever we are embarking on, because it affects all the 17 million Zambians. I am opposing Bill 10 from the economic point of view.
In summary, Bill 10, both in its original and revised form, has two major flaws, if one was to look at it purely from the economic point of view. The first flaw is that the Bill promotes big government. It encourages reckless, excessive and non-value adding government expenditure. And secondly, the Bill encourages excessive borrowing – though not expressly but impliedly. The two weaknesses are the major causes of the current economic problems and the Bill proposes doing the same thing but expecting a different result! I will explain how the bill does this in its proposals.
Excessive government expenditure
In regard to big government, there about five (5) proposals that in effect increases government expenditure exponentially. First, Bill 10 proposes that Deputy ministers be reintroduced. It is not rocket science that government expenditure will go up by the employment of Deputy Ministers through the payment of salaries and other benefits and the exponential growth of the per diem payments. Deputy Ministers have not missed at all since 2016.
There is also the proposal which deals with the creation of Parliament. The composition of parliament will be determined by the Party with the majority in Parliament. The proposal does not specify the limit on the numbers of members of parliament. This in effect means the number of seats of members of parliament will be unlimited. This means that any ruling Party in the future may decide to increase seats from the current 156 to say 500, for example. This will inevitably result in increased costs which the tax payers will be required to fund.
The current constitution provides that parliament will dissolve itself 90 days before the general election and the Constitution Court ruling even confirmed that even Cabinet Ministers are supposed to vacate their seats. Bill 10 proposes to change this and wants ministers to remain in office until the date of the next election. The economic implication is that Ministers will be misusing government resources to campaign and expenditure in any election year will sky rocket. Who will pay for this? You, the voter will in form of increased taxes including the unemployed and villagers through VAT.
There is also a provision in Bill 10 that gives the President the unrestricted power by parliament to create provinces and districts. It can easily be abused by any President for political purposes without regard to the economic consequences. This sub division of provinces like pieces of land will require duplicated infrastructure and more jobs for the boys and result in higher recurrent and capital expenditure.
The other major provision that will result in increased government expenditure relates to Bill 10 proposal to expand the Cabinet by including Provincial Ministers and government Chief Whip. Zambia will end up a cabinet larger than rich countries like the USA, Nigeria, and South Africa etc. The bloated Cabinet apart from the fact that it will be inefficient, as you cannot have meaningful discussions in a Board Meeting of over 50 people, will result in more money being spent.
I would challenge Justice Minister Mr. Given Lubinda to give the nation the rationale for the above proposals and their economic benefits to the country and to the man on the street apart from promoting political patronage. It very curious that at the time that Zambia is supposed to be implementing austerity measures and working towards debt sustainability, the government is pushing for the passage of Bill 10 which is encouraging more expenditure through big government and unfettered excessive borrowing.
The increased expenditure outlined above will have to be financed from somewhere. What are the most likely sources of revenue for Bill 10’s proposed expenditure generating amendments? Taxation and borrowing.
Increased Taxation, cost of living and cost doing business
There shouldn’t be an argument that all of the Bill 10 proposed amendments mentioned above will result in higher government expenditure with little or negligible tangible value addition to the ordinary Zambian. It also follows that the major source of government revenue is taxation. It is only the most naïve will argue that no additional taxes will be required to finance the proposed changes. Bill 10 will no doubt require all households and business to pay more taxes thereby lead to higher cost of living and cost of doing business. This is simple economics and common sense. There should not be any partisan argument on this.
Excess borrowing
If taxes are insufficient, there will need to borrow to supplement the expenditure. The second major economic flaw of Bill 10 apart from the big government issues above, relates to easier debt contraction. Although the re-gazetted Bill 10 has removed the clause in the original bill which authorized the Executive wing of government led by the President to have unfettered freedom to borrow. The risk of excessive borrowing still exists. This is so because the clause dealing with the power of the President and the ruling Party to determine the number of members of Parliament effectively means Parliament will always be majority led by the ruling Party.
The proposed amendment in Bill 10 for Parliament to create itself is a backdoor creation of a de facto one Party State. Parliament will always be a rubber stamp. The Cabinet will be able to borrow freely without the EFFECTIVE oversight by Parliament. Parliamentary Democracies are based on independent checks and balances between the three wings of government- Parliament, Judiciary and Executive. As things stand, the Zambian Presidency is so powerful that there are very few checks and balances. As we all know, crucial economic decisions are not made at the Ministry of Finance but at State house and so the passage of Bill 10 will result in more power for the Presidency. It is an open question that whoever takes that office will do as he or she pleases with economic policy.
CONCLUSION
I would recommend that as Zambians, we press a re-set button and have a sober debate on the constitution. The debate on the constitution should never be approached in a partisan way. In my view, the constitution and its debate is supposed to be political Party neutral as it supposed to benefit all citizens regardless of Political Party affiliation. The Constitution is not a document of a particular party but for the nation as a whole and it should be able to stand the test of time. It should not be divisive. The amendments should not be based on benefiting a particular administration as elections and change of governments are unpredictable.
It is clear from purely economic arguments that the proposed amendments contained in Bill 10 do not serve the best interests of the majority Zambians. Bill 10 is not in an ordinary Zambian’s interest as it is likely to result in runaway government expenditure and excessive borrowing. It follows that the current problems that we are facing of high taxes, high inflation, depreciating kwacha will get worse as excessive expenditure and government borrowings are the major causes of our economic problems.
May I appeal to Members of Parliament to ask themselves the following questions before they support or vote for the bill. Is the bill 10 going to reduce the cost of living for ordinary Zambians? Is the potential excessive public borrowings to finance big government in the best interests of the economy and country? Are the potential taxes that will be required to finance the proposed big-government going to benefit ordinary Zambians?
For PF members and members of Parliament, they should ask themselves as to whether Bill 10 will save their best interests, if any of the Opposition parties took over power sometime in the future? PF members should remember this English saying “BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR” (For those who are not familiar with its meaning google it).
It is my humble view that Bill 10 should not be a priority given the problems we are facing. It will not put food on the Zambians’ table. I am wondering why the hurry and the desperation to pass the Bill by the ruling party and their supporters. The timing of the Bill is wrong. Firstly, at the moment the priority should be the economy, the creation of jobs for the Youth and uniting the country. Secondly, the PF administration mandate’s mandate is finishing next year and it is better for them to wait for a fresh mandate in 2021 and introduce a well thought out and more inclusive Bill.
In summary, Bill 10 will take more money from Zambians pockets and put it in any future ruling Party’s politicians and their supporters’ pockets.
PLEASE WITHDRAW BILL 10
