By Alexander K. Vomo
How much does it cost our country to run the by-election and the money spent for campaigning? As a concerned citizen I have a right to suggestions. I’m not here to campaign for anyone or criticize the government but I would like to bring up a suggestion and through my suggestions I must mention why we should do this, and it may sound criticizing but that’s the facts that we cannot run away from.
I would like to start with a suggestion of do away with By-election in our country because it has become too much of it and too costly that the country cannot afford, there is no money to run a By-election.
Solution to this should be that, if a President, MP or councilor resigns or anything happen that would require a replacement, if it’s a President that means the ruling party at that time should appoint someone within their party to continue the presidency. If it’s MP or Councilor, it should be that the party the MP/Councilor came from, they will appoint from within. If that MP was with the opposition, then the opposition should also be given a chance to appoint someone from their opposition party.
I would take you back for an instance when Honorable Harry Kalaba resigned, he was an MP for PF therefore, in a case like this PF would appoint an MP to replace Honorable Kalaba, same way another example when the government fired the outspoken Honorable Chishimba Kambwili who was also from the PF, PF still gets a chance to appoint a replacement with no By elections. Same goes to the instance of the Kaoma councilor who was a UPND and resigned, with no by elections the government should have given an opportunity to UPND to appoint a new representative, this could have saved the country so much money plus no one would have died.
I’m a Zambian a nonpartisan but Mr. Edgar Chagwa Lungu is my president I cannot run away from that fact. Mr. President sir, you have the mandate as per our constitution for you to run our nation, please have a listening hear and listen to our suggestions we cannot run the country but can bring up some suggestions.
The country is broke to put it in a simple language. If civil service personnel are not getting paid for months, then we have a problem in our nation that makes me have a right to talk, I know someone is reading and saying I’m mad because when you say the truth now in our country then you are against the ruling government no I’m not I would like to see a better Zambia than us keep on voting for a change instead of a right person. Please Mr. President as long as you are the president in office, I’m on your side and respect that but we must be truthful, numbers don’t lie.
How is a school teacher who has not been paid for months going to perform well and give the best education to our Children, how is the City Council employee going to do the right thing who has been assigned to allocate plots to citizens when this employee has not been paid for months, how is a medical doctor taking care of our lives going to administer proper medication and do well with no pay. In fact, point of correction some new medical doctors are now on payroll since last month although they did not get salary arrears.
Let me give more details and reasons why we should do away with By-election:
- Zambia Debt to GDP is at 59%. Zambia’s external debt at the end of the first quarter of this year had increased to $10.178 billion from $10.05 billion at the end of 2018, the debt pile had pierced the $10 billion level after jumping from $8.74 billion at the end of 2017.
- Food inflation is at 12.4%. This means the Cost of food in Zambia now for a family of 5 is not less than $300 if we factor in the price of mealie meal which a family of 5 may feed on two bags in a month.
- The annual inflation rate in Zambia climbed to 10.5 percent in September 2019 from 9.3 percent in the prior month. This is the highest inflation rate in almost three years, amid rising prices of food (12.4 percent vs 10.3 percent in August) as the country has been struggling with a severe drought which is causing a lack of the staple food mealie meal and a looming humanitarian crisis. Meantime, poor rainfall is affecting electricity generation created mostly through hydroelectric power, a situation that will drive the country to import power from South Africa can we even afford that?
- Foreign exchange reserves have plunged to $1.4 billion dollars (maybe completely gone by now) from a peak of nearly $4 billion five years ago. This Mr. President will put us in a probability of default when it’s time to repay these loans.
- Our Government Budget is at -7.60%. This equates to the deficit of 7.50 percent of the country’s Gross Domestic Product as of 2018.
- We have not remitted over K418 million (USD $31,646,085.00) over the past 4 months towards repayment of civil servants’ loans, this has forced some affected micro financial institutions to suspend disbursements of funds to government workers until payments are made. From these Micro Financial institutions, most employees have gone on forced leave and now fear of losing their jobs as their institutions may decide to downsize on the number of staffs. Various civil servants have loans with different Micro Financial institutions which government is mandated to pay on their behalf but has not done so over the past four months.
Having given these details, I would like to state that we as a country benefited from the World Bank/ IMF-organized debt relief under the Highly Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) initiative. Practically all external debt was cancelled in 2005.
Until 2011, we had limited our borrowing while the economy had grown 6-7% annually since 2002. By the end of 2011, when the Patriotic Front (PF) government won the elections and took power, the external debt stood at only 1.9 billion USD or 8.4% of GDP, according to official and World Bank sources. Since 2012, however, the government has borrowed more than four times this amount.
Most loans in the 1980s and 90s, and even up to 2011, were provided by multilateral banks such as the World Bank/IDA and the African Development Bank (AfDB) and other development donors on concessional (low interest) terms. The new loans, however, are mostly on commercial terms, meaning higher interests and shorter time frames. The main new sources for the Zambian loans are the commercial Eurobond market, and Chinese credits and loans, as well as banks in India, South Africa, Nigeria and the Arab world.
Until 2011, we had limited our borrowing while the economy had grown 6-7% annually since 2002. By the end of 2011, when the Patriotic Front (PF) government won the elections and took power, the external debt stood at only 1.9 billion USD or 8.4% of GDP, according to official and World Bank sources. Since 2012, however, the government has borrowed more than four times this amount.
In 2012, we followed the example of several other African countries and decided for the first time to raise money in the Eurobond market at commercial rates. (this was a mistake Mr. President sir) the response was very positive. The first 750 million USD loan was quickly over-subscribed, and the interest rate was a reasonable 5.6%. However, the loan must be repaid in full within ten years. Encouraged by this relative success, we managed a second Eurobond loan in 2014, this time borrowing 1 billion USD even though the interest rate had jumped to 8.6%. Despite the high price, we still decided to go for a third Eurobond loan in 2015 and borrowed 1.25 billion USD at a 9.4% interest rate. We have thus altogether borrowed 3 billion USD at commercial rates and must start heavy repayments in 2022.
I’m sorry but I must mention that the then Finance Minister (Mrs. Margaret Mwanakatwe) made a statement promising to create a “sinking fund” i.e. savings to enable repayments in time. I believe with the situation we are in, we have not done this so-called sinking fund. She went on to say that Zambia’s increasing debt load is an investment for the future and shouldn’t be a cause for concern, but this is a concern to us as citizens. Some sources have stated that Instead of saving, we have started to look for ways to extend the loan period or enter new loans to be able to repay the present ones. As the year 2022 is approaching, this is becoming more urgent. Sir, there is no way we can borrow more to pay what we have borrowed before it does not work that way.
Mr. President sir, in June 2019. (specifically, June 19th) when you were in Maputo, Mozambique’s Capital, you said that Zambia is not in a position of a crisis. You said and I quote “When you find that you are being strangled by debt, you hold back and see how you can realign your position so that in the end you continue being alive, you don’t suffocate. We have realized where we are, and I think we have taken measures; those measures will see us get some breathing space so that the economy begins growing again. In a few years, we will see Zambia boomerang and rise again to that growth rate which is acceptable.” Sir I would like to remind you that we are now in a crisis and suffocating. We need to start considering cost measures like what I’m talking about here DO AWAY WITH BY-ELECTIONS., as one of them to build the economy back like you mentioned in your interviews in Maputo.
We should only hold presidential elections which is every five years if anything happens to the president before five years, we will only appoint from the ruling government.
We have borrowed from several non-Chinese sources, including bilateral government loans, loans from fuel suppliers, the Arab Development Bank (BADEA), Israeli sources (for defense purposes) and from regular international banks in the UK, Nigeria and South Africa. Most of these loans probably have commercial market conditions.
Meanwhile, our borrowing from Chinese sources has increased dramatically in recent years. Starting from a relatively low figure in 2011, then it reached at least 2.3 billion USD at the end of 2017 according to official sources (Ministry of Finance 2018). The major creditor is China’s EXIM Bank. Other loans have been obtained from China Development Bank and China National Aero-Technology Import & Export Corporation (CATEC). The EXIM Bank and the Development Bank provide loans on partial concessional terms and are thus less costly than commercial terms.
I would like to recommend that we had a relatively healthy macroeconomic position in 2011, resulting from a high economic growth since 2002 and a sound government budget. However, the growth had a relatively small impact on living conditions for the majority. We initiated a high number of construction projects. Numerous road projects were started, some have since been completed, while several have stalled and been left half-finished. Among the most spectacular projects are the expensive Mongu- Kalabo road crossing the Zambezi flood area in Western Province.
Because there is no money a four-lane highway to the Copperbelt region, and the bridge crossing the Zambezi from Kazungula in Southern Province linking Zambia directly with Botswana and Namibia. These projects are on standby.
In addition to road building, we also borrowed for other infrastructure purposes, such as a new terminal for the Lusaka airport and a new airport in the Copperbelt (Ndola), which are also moving very slow because of the same reason if there was money it would not take this long to complete these projects. The truth of the matter is that there is no money we cannot sugar coat it.
Other loans were for hydropower plants including the Itezhi-Tezhi on the Kafue river, additional turbines in the Kariba Dam, and a major new plant to be constructed in Lower Kafue Gorge. Most people agree that borrowing for investments in infrastructure is necessary for developing countries as it makes trade and travel easier, providing improved access. The economy will grow with improved transport and communications and a stable energy supply. Only cost measures will make us end Load shedding.
We are experiencing high unemployment and poverty levels of 41.2 percent and 54 percent respectively, coupled with inequality, violence, corruption and other socio-economic challenges. If we don’t wake up as soon as possible we are going to be worse than our friends next door.
I will end here so that I can give chance to those bloggers who just insult and think when you speak then you are mad. go on Cadres!
