The financial markets are a web of interconnected elements, but is there a notable relationship between gold and oil prices? While these two serve different purposes, of course (gold as a store of value and oil as an energy source), it’s reasonable to wonder whether their prices influence each other. Understanding the relationship can provide insights for managing a trading account or building a diversified portfolio.

The role of gold and oil in global economics

Gold and oil are two of the most traded commodities worldwide, but they have distinct roles in the global economy. Gold has long been viewed as a safe haven asset, maintaining its value during economic uncertainty. Investors often turn to it when inflation rises, currencies weaken, or geopolitical tensions escalate.

Oil, meanwhile, plays a huge, active role in modern industry. Its price reflects global economic activity, as demand for oil increases when economies expand. Supply factors, such as geopolitical conflicts in oil-producing regions or changes in production levels, also play a significant role in determining prices.

These differing functions mean that the factors driving gold and oil prices often differ.

Historical patterns and correlations

When observing the relationship between gold and oil prices, it’s noticeable that their movements are not consistently linked. Over certain periods, there may be a positive correlation, meaning that when oil prices rise, gold prices increase too. At other times, the relationship weakens or even reverses.

For example, during times of inflation, both gold and oil prices may rise simultaneously. Oil price increases can contribute to inflation by raising production and transportation costs, while gold often attracts investors as a hedge against inflation. This dynamic can create a temporary link between the two assets.

On the other hand, periods of economic instability can reduce the correlation. If oil prices fall due to oversupply, it doesn’t necessarily mean gold prices will follow. Gold’s price may respond more to interest rates or currency fluctuations.

The US dollar’s impact

The US dollar plays a key role in the relationship between gold and oil. Both commodities are priced in dollars on international markets, meaning their value often inversely correlates with the dollar’s strength. When the dollar weakens, gold and oil prices tend to rise because they become cheaper for holders of other currencies.

This relationship with the dollar can sometimes make it appear as though gold and oil are directly related. In reality, the dollar’s movements often act as an intermediary force that influences both commodities.

Geopolitics and market sentiment

Geopolitical events often affect both gold and oil markets, further complicating their relationship. For example, conflicts in oil-producing regions can lead to supply disruptions, driving oil prices higher. At the same time, heightened geopolitical risks may mean investors turn to gold as a safe haven asset.

Market sentiment also plays a role. During financial crises or periods of economic uncertainty, both gold and oil may see price increases due to shifts in investor behavior. An investor may use their trading account to allocate funds toward these commodities as part of a strategy to manage risk or capitalize on market volatility.

Differences in demand drivers

There are some overlaps, but the fundamental demand drivers for gold and oil differ substantially. Gold’s demand comes from jewelry, central bank reserves, and investment.

Oil is primarily driven by industrial use and transportation needs. So macroeconomic indicators like GDP growth, industrial production, and consumer demand tend to have a more direct impact on oil prices.

Gold prices, in contrast, are more sensitive to monetary policy, inflation expectations, and shifts in investor sentiment.

Investment strategies

Understanding the interplay between gold and oil can offer insight for traders and investors. Historical patterns can serve as a guide, but market dynamics often change due to evolving economic conditions or unexpected events.

Some investors may use the perceived relationship as part of a hedging strategy. For example, during inflationary periods, holding both gold and oil could provide protection against rising prices. Others may look for opportunities in diverging trends, such as when one commodity rises sharply while the other remains relatively stable.

Investors often follow news on both gold and oil prices. In mid-January, Yahoo Finance reported that the price of gold rose more than 30% over the past year, and asked their readers whether they thought the “gold price would reach fresh highs this year”. 62% of voters believed gold could reach new records, with 22% disagreeing and 16% undecided.

After Donald Trump won the US election, it was predicted that oil prices would rise in 2025 after three-year lows. 

Takeaway

While gold and oil prices can sometimes move in tandem, their relationship is complex and influenced by multiple factors. Understanding the distinct roles of these commodities, their demand drivers and the external forces affecting prices can help traders make more informed decisions. 

By Kapya Kaoma

The President’s overreach into free speech continues to make headlines as the nation looks forward to the 2026 general elections. The Zambia Police Service and the Zambia Information and Communication Technology Authority recently arrested social media activists for “provocative” statements directed at the president.

The real crime is simply this: posting assertions offensive to the president on social media. If doing so is a crime, we are losing our democracy!

What an irony? President Hichilema rode to power on criticisms and insults directed at his predecessor, Edgar Lungu, but his administration is now arresting citizen employing dissenting voices to engage in the political process. His political opponents are being silenced one by one.

I indeed, the President’s tendency to demean his opponents with vile language, only to silence them when they respond, has exposed the hypocrisy at the heart of his administration. Campaigning means framing one’s opponent in the most negative light to sway public opinion, but when opponents fight back, they’re arrested for “provocative” speech.

The President’s overreach into free speech is greatly concerning; it is inconsistent with democratic ideals. Democracy is about criticizing leaders and holding them accountable; therefore, the President’s actions are a betrayal of the very principles of democracy. Besides, who said the President is above the law or public criticism? Commitment to democracy means allowing people to speak freely without fear of being imprisoned or killed. Calling a president mad, stupid, corrupt, etc., on social media or even in public is only a crime in authoritarian states. In democratic nations across the globe, it is a protected right that each citizen is entitled to! In democratic societies, such as the US, UK, and even in South Africa, people have posted derogatory comments and even false accusations against presidents, prime ministers, and kings on social media, and they are not arrested.

President HH is not the first to be ridiculed in Zambian politics. People have called previous presidents all sorts of names. President HH himself has a long history of using strong language against his opponents, including former President Levy Mwanawasa, whom he infamously referred to as a “cabbage,” Michael Sata, whom he called “Chimbwi,” and he had countlessly called Lungu “foolish” and “stupid.” Now that he is president, when his opponents speak out, they’re met with police brutality and imprisonment. President Chiluba should be crying in his grave to see the value of free expression become a crime in Zambia again, as it did during the Kaunda regime.

This is not a question of whether the President can be criticized but rather about his willingness to engage with criticism and listen to opposing viewpoints. If he can’t handle the heat, then perhaps he should reconsider resigning before he puts most of us in jail. Zambians will always talk and call him names–not everyone is his cadre!

The stakes are high, and the consequences could be catastrophic. In neighboring countries like Congo, Mozambique, and Kenya, leaders have pushed their citizens to the brink of chaos, only to find themselves facing opposition from a united people.

In Zambia, history suggests that men and women in uniform have power because they represent the people, not because they carry firearms. The power of community action lies not in guns but in the collective strength of citizens who refuse to be silenced.

As Zambians, we risk murdering our democracy if we are arrested for what we post on social media.
The president has the power to order the arrests of his opponents. But is this the true essence of power? Is power a means to humiliate and silence opponents, or should it be wielded with a sense of responsibility for the collective good?

Time will tell, but one thing is certain: our democracy is at the crossroads. We can choose to let one man take it away or defend it. Our choice is very future of our beloved country. Future generations are counting on us to do the right thing—oppose the authoritarian attitude of the current administration.

By Isaac C Mvula

Having worked closely with 11 Army Commanders, from General Benjamin N Mibenge to General Paul Mihova, spanning 32 years, I have observed that each one of them had their own style of command, management and leadership. I came to the conclusion that the most effective and successful were those who listened to the counsel of their subordinates, whether sensible or not. I worked with some Commanders that could not be advised. They displayed an ‘I know it all’ attitude. They only served to advise their advisors. Incorrigible.

General Geojago Musengule was the type of Army Commander that listened to you attentively, no matter how small you were. Even if what you were saying was not making sense to yourself, he would not shut you up. He would let you finish talking.

As a former impregnable defender in the Zambia Army Football Club, the forerunner of the former indomitable Green Buffaloes Football Club (GBFC), he knew well that in every competition, one has to carefully assess one’s strengths and weaknesses against those of the opponent, or enemy.

Civilians call it ‘SWOT Analysis.’ This is a strategic planning technique used to help a person or organization identify Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats related to business compensation or project planning. The military call it an Appreciation. It is a worthy tool for young men seeking competitive advantage over others, in a competition over a beautiful young lady.

“You two will get me fired. But be sure that I am not going down alone. I will take you down with me,” General Musengule said to Lieutenant Colonel D M Kauseni (Brigadier General) and me, after going through a paper we had prepared. The previous day, just before cease work, around 1700 hrs, the Army Commander had summoned the two of us to his office and ordered us to burn the midnight oil and present that paper to him first thing the following morning. It was an assignment from State House. We spent the whole night working on that paper.

“Do your very best to produce a good paper that will satisfy the President,” the Commander had emphasized. Lieutenant Colonel Kauseni was GSO 1 in charge of Operations and Training, while I was GSO 2 Intelligence.

The assignment had to do with the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).

Although many people had not heard much about him before he ascended to power after overthrowing Mobutu Sese Seko on 17th May 1997, Lauren-Desire Kabila was a revolutionary of no small magnitude. This was a man who had rubbed shoulders and fought together with world renowned revolutionaries, including the famous Ernesto ‘Che’ Guevara, an Argentine Marxist revolutionary guerrilla leader and military theorist, among many things. About Kabila, Che Guevara had said, of all the people he met during his campaign in Congo, only Kabila had genuine qualities of a mass leader. So highly esteemed.

Kabila was the leader of Tutsi forces from the province of South Kivu, called the Alliance of Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Congo (AFDL), which was supported by Rwanda and Uganda. He became the third president of DRC after Mobutu ran away to Morocco, where he died in exile.

By 1998, Kabila’s former allies in Rwanda and Uganda had turned against him and backed a new rebellion of the Rally for Congolese Democracy (RCD), after feeling that their control of the Great Lakes region was under threat. The RCD forces were advancing speedily when Kabila pleaded for help from SADC.

Zambia has always been a very influential and prominent member of SADC. President F T J Chiluba of Zambia was a close personal friend of Kabila. Speculations were that it was because Chiluba had Congolese parentage, and that he had launched Kabila’s command element through Kasumbalesa, that was why Kabila pronounced his victory in ousting Mobutu, from Lubumbashi, although his major thrust was from the North.

Things were now getting hot for Kabila. Angola, Namibia, and Zimbabwe responded positively to Kabila’s call for help, and sent troops into DRC.

President Chiluba’s order to the Army Commander, was to work out how Zambia was going to help his friend Kabila. That was the order that the Commander passed to Lieutenant Colonel Kauseni and myself. Come up with an Operations Plan.

As we sat brainstorming in Colonel Kauseni’s office that evening, he asked me to provide the strengths of forces involved in the conflict. After a long time of consideration, we concluded to recommend that Zambia should not be involved in the conflict. Totally different from what we had been directed to do. We ‘knocked out’ a detailed paper justifying our position.

The following morning we went to meet the Army Commander.

“No. We can’t tell the President that we can’t go. He directed me to advise him how we will help, not whether we can or cannot,” General Musengule insisted. Colonel Kauseni requested to consider the reasons we had advanced. After reading through again, he looked up to the ceiling, with his head held in his hands.

“It makes sense, but it is not right. I cannot go and tell the Commander-in-Chief that I cannot obey his order,” he said, more to himself, than to us.

We had argued that the countries that had sent troops to DRC had good reasons for doing so. We didn’t. Angola was in it just to protect its already embattled oilfields in the Cabinda enclave up in the North. Also, it was aware that Savimbi’s UNITA forces were using the northern border to transit diamonds into DRC in exchange for arms and ammunition. Similarly, Namibia and Zimbabwe appeared to be interesting in harvesting diamonds and other precious stones and minerals from DRC. As for Zimbabwe, it was also to divert the attention of its people from the ongoing political problems it was going through back home. These were in the public domain. Africa Confidential reported extensively on that. Namibia and Zimbabwe did not share borders with DRC, so the effects of the conflict could not spill over into their territories.

As for Zambia, we noted that DRC shared borders with us in four provinces, namely, North-Western, Copperbelt, Luapula, and Northern. The spill-over effects would be catastrophic, if the conflict escalated. We would not be able to handle the situation since our troops were already stretched by other assignments. Additionally, the government was unable to adequately support local operations. How was it going to support our troops in a foreign land, with an extended logistic tail? Further, war is expensive. It would take away resources from the social sector such as health and education, to apply to the Defence Budget. It could cause much suffering among the people, thus making the government unpopular. Lastly, the arrival of body bags would cause problems among the populace.

The Commander decided to take it before his Generals, who also agreed with us. Next, he summoned other service chiefs, who also agreed with our reasoning.

“Prepare a PowerPoint presentation and the two of you should be ready to make the President at State House. I will ask for an appointment. Let me know as soon as you are ready,” the Commander directed.

We got the presentation ready and rehearsed. We accompanied the Army Commander and the other Service Chiefs to State House at around 1600 hrs. I set up my equipment in a smaller hall, ready for the presentation.

President Chiluba appeared only at 2000 hrs. His Private Secretary kept assuring us that he was around, and would be seeing us soon. When he arrived, he went straight and took his seat. We all stood up and saluted. He did not respond. He just motioned that we go ahead with the presentation. I noticed that his eyes were small, and sunken. The Army Commander introduced all of us. Lieutenant Colonel Kauseni (Brigadier General) had a field day, making the presentation. I had never seen him that confident.

When the presentation was over, the Commander asked if the Commander-in-Chief had any question. President Chiluba just stood up, and walked out, visibly annoyed.

We all remained standing, lost for what to do next, until the Private Secretary came back, about 10 minutes later, to tell us to go. The atmosphere was tense. You could hear a pin drop on that red wall-to-wall fluffy carpet.

As we walked out to our waiting cars, General Musengule joked, “Gentlemen, whoever gets the letter of dismissal, please alert the others.”

I later asked the Commander what the President had said concerning that presentation. He said nothing. Not a word.

Lauren-Desire Kabila survived that rebel onslaught, but was shot dead in his office on 16th January 2001, allegedly by one of his security. His son, Joseph Kabila, succeeded him 8 days later.