
By Amos Chanda
The EIU has never said will win but PF has won twice.
In 2006 they predicted a PF win but PF lost!
In 2008 they also predicted UPND would win but MMD won and PF was second.
In 2011 they predicted a win for RB who they praised as a moderate western trained economist who had shown remarkable leadership during a difficult time of economic recession… RB lost and PF won (https://www.lusakatimes.com/2010/03/30/economist-intelligence-unit-report-zambia-predicts-rbs-reelection-2011/).
In 2015 they predicted an easy opposition victory over the divided PF and that praised the “impartiality” of the acting president in handling the campaigns. The opposition lost and PF won.
At the centre of the EIU analysis is the notion that a western leaning capitalist-thinking candidate must win and for them Sata and EL are less western thinking than RB AND HH respectively.
For them the judgement of a white man Scott and ex banker Miles is better than the judgement say of Samuel Mukupa, Davies Chama, Dora Siliya, Vincent Mwale etc… Zambians voters do not think like EIU analysts?
How would a Scott and or Sampa endorsement of 2016 differ from their endorsement of 2015 though not openly done?
Scott told British newspapers he expected the opposition to win…
How will UPND win elections when it is still clear that they will still fail to get a single parliament seat in the whole of Muchinga North Luapula and Eastern provinces?
How would they win when they have lost by elections in western province in the last one year 11 to 5 for local elections and 1 to zero for parliament that is Mulobezi?
They have lost all by elections in the east north and Luapula that have taken place since 2015? Where would this sudden victory come from?
The EIU seem oblivious to the electoral demographics that starkly suggests that the people of the north are as just as unlikely to vote UPND as those from the are against the PF.
Sadly, for UPND the PF has unassailable support on six out of 10 provinces: East North Muchinga Luapula CB and Lusaka! Even assuming as expected that some support would reduce in some urban areas, how would that drop say from the over 70 percent to below 50?
But all that aside what is most unreliable about the EIU predictions is that they have never predicted a PF victory! And as you read further the report says “whichever party wins” there will be no major policy change… “whichever” is an operative word here not UPND!
The report alleges PF is “deeply divided” between who and who? Sampa and Scott have always been against EL and have done very little to help.
Ever since the so called defections started one can only point to Mwaliteta the rest are MMD MPs who formally joined the UPND.
At the 2015 polls all those campaigned for HH… which divisions is the EIU talking about?