Political scientist Neo Simutanyi says the August 2016 elections puts UPND leader Hakainde Hichilema as a hot favourite to win the poll.

In a statement posted on his Facebook page, Dr Simutanyi said Mr Hichilema is in the most unassailable position as hot favourite to win the 2016 presidential election.

“Granted the PF has won most of the parliamentary and local government by-elections held since Lungu assumed the presidency, but that may not reflect the true position regarding public opinion towards PF’s governance record,” Dr Simutanyi said.

He observed that incumbency advantages and a perception that it is of no value voting for the opposition has often persuaded voters to vote for the incumbent.

“We saw this under the MMD, that despite a good run in by-elections, the MMD tumbled in the 2011 general elections. This coming election will be a two-horse race, between the ruling PF and the UPND. The real contest will be between Edgar Lungu and Hakainde Hichilema,” he said.
“A kind of political re-match. Of course the election will be held under a new constitutional and electoral regime, in which the winner has to garner at least 50 percent plus one of the votes. If the voting patterns of the last five elections are anything to go by, the PF will need to take the competition offered by UPND very seriously,” Dr Simutanyi said.

He added that while it is too early to know with utmost certainty the intentions of the voters ahead of the 2016 general elections, the fractures within the ruling party point to serious problems that will influence voting choices.

“As I see it, three factors will work to favour UPND. First, without Michael Sata, the PF has a very weak and most unattractive candidate in Edgar Chagwa Lungu. Second, an economic crisis in the form of job losses of over 10,000 on the mines as a result of poor mine tax laws, debilitating electricity shortages/load-shedding; high mealie meal prices coupled with shortage of mealie meal; high exchange rates and high cost of living as a result of high inflation rate of 22.5%.”

“Thirdly, a divided and fragmented ruling party as a result of the succession battle to replace Michael Sata,” he said.

Dr Simutanyi observed that President Lungu’s preference for MMD leaders to loyal PF leaders may have alienated his potential base of support in the Copperbelt, Lusaka, Luapula, Muchinga and Northern provinces.

“Indeed, we have witnessed defections by former MMD leaders to PF, notably, Dora Siliya and Kapembwa Simbao who regained their seats on the PF ticket and are now part of Lungu’s political entourage. To be sure Lungu has completely changed the complexion of the original PF, which may be responsible for the current disenchantment within the upper echelons of the ruling party.”

He said the on-going defections from the PF and endorsements of the UPND are informed by these developments.

“As is customary these defections and endorsements have been dismissed as insignificant. Those who have left the PF have been branded ‘bitter’, ‘tribal’ and inconsequential. But I contend that the defections and endorsements are significant and of consequence if those leaving were influential and highly respected within the party and society at large, if they are leaving on matters of principle and if they have a discernible constituency,” he said.

He said the resignations from government by three deputy ministers within three months should be a matter of grave concern to the stability of a regime.

“Further, endorsements of HH’s candidature in the August 11 general elections from prominent individuals, including former vice president Guy Scott and eleven respected MMD sitting members of parliament is not a small matter which can be wished away. It has eroded public confidence in the PF and President Edgar Lungu’s leadership and suitability to continue in office,” he added.

He also charged that the meeting held on Tuesday 5th April, 2016 at the Cathedral of the Holy Cross and attended by leaders of 18 political parties, including President Lungu and Mr Hichilema has not done anything to stop violent confrontation between supporters of the two major parties.

“This is a bad indictment on Edgar Lungu, as it indicates that he is either unwilling or unable to command law-enforcement agencies to maintain law and order and protect citizens of the enjoyment of their rights as enshrined in the Constitution of Zambia. My view is, there was no need for the inter-party meeting on political violence.”

He said it is within the power of the President of the Republic of Zambia to enforce law and order and to ensure that every citizen enjoys their political and civil rights as enshrined in Part 2 of the Constitution of Zambia.

“For failure to decisively deal with violence, Lungu has breached his oath of office and in some countries would have been liable to impeachment. Since Edgar Lungu’s ascent to the highest position in the land, we have witnessed claims from senior PF leaders of how he was the ‘chosen one’, how the PF won the election with a ‘landside’ and how the UPND was whitewashed, using Dandy Crazy’s rendition kolopa.com. It is important to put these claims into perceptive. It is erroneous and misleading to claim that Lungu’s 2015 victory was a ‘landslide’.”

He said former Vice President Guy Scott described the result as inconclusive and close to a draw in political terms.

“Despite former president Rupiah Banda’s support, PF’s support only increased by five percent from 2011, while that of UPND increased by more than 25%.”

A LUSAKA man who forgave his wife after she committed adultery with a church elder has decided to divorce his spouse citing continued promiscuity.
Danny Sikazwe, 37, of Garden House told the Matero Local Court that despite his love for his wife Brenda Chipuma, he wants his marriage annulled because Chipuma does not love him.
He was speaking before Justices Lewis Mumba and Pauline Newa in a case where Sikazwe sued Chipuma, 25, of Ten Miles for divorce.
Sikazwe said after he caught his wife and a church elder, only known as Muleya, of Seventh Day Adventist (SDA) church having sex on a reed mat, he forgave them both.
He said hoping that, that would change their marriage for the better, he was hurt to see that Chipuma began to neglect him and her house chores.
“I would draw water, boil it for her, bathe her, cook for her, wash her clothes and even take lunch for her at the market where she works,” he said.
Upon hearing this, the gallery burst into laughter while others clapped their hands in disbelief.
Sikazwe said his wife was in the habit of staying out late in bars, adding that when he asked her why she was behaving like that, she told him, ‘In our family, women don’t stay with one man. Even my parents are divorced.’
He said Chipuma also told him she could not live with a man who cannot afford to buy a car or even a house.
And in her statement, Chipuma said after the adultery case, Sikazwe, who she has been married to for 11 years and with whom she has two children does not trust her.
“I complained to my father-in-law who told me my husband was once mad and when he takes alcohol, madness returns to him. He told me that Sikazwe would kill me and that I should leave him for the sake of my children,” she said.
Passing judgment, Justice Newa granted divorce with no compensation and ordered the couple to share all household goods and property acquired together.

(DailyMail)

Suspended MMD national Spokesperson Raphael Nakacinda says all members of NEC members who will be claiming to still be holding on to their positions after 11th April 2016 will just be masquerading as their tenure of office ends on that day.

And governance expert McDonald Chipenzi says the blood being spilt due to political violence is on the heads of President Edgar Lungu and Police Inspector General Kakoma Kankanja as they are the only people with the powers to stop the scourge.

Speaking when the duo featured on a discussion program on Joy FM radio Mr Nakacinda said the only person with an outside chance to protest against holding of the convention is the party President Dr Nevers Mumba who was elected at an extra ordinary convention in 2012.

He explained that all the other NEC members including those who have been appointed to replace the various members who either were expelled or left the party will not have the mandate to hold on to any position in the party.

He further noted that even the position of the president is up for elections because the constitution of the party dictates that the party shall go to a convention every five years and that all positions are electable at the convention.

He also said the decision to try and defer the convention by NEC is illegal as it is only given powers to make decisions in between conventions which does not include deferring the convention adding that they are certain decisions which are a preserve of the convention and not NEC.

Mr Nakacinda who was a staunch supporter of Dr Mumba explained that he tried to advise the Politburo, an executive body within the party that MMD is not like others parties because the founders left a strong constitution which has to be followed but that there are some members who have been adamant and that proceeding in the way the party is going will only end up destroying the same values which the party was founded on.

Asked if he agrees with members who fought Dr Mumba such as Dora Siliya and others who have been expelled from the party, Mr Nakacinda said that his support for Dr Mumba was based on the constitutional backing that he was the elected President of the party with the mandate to run it up to the end of his term.

On accusations that he has been bought by the other faction headed by Lunte MP Felix Mutati, Mr Nakacinda said he is above being bought and that he does not want to be on the wrong side of the constitution, precedence or be among the people who will be responsible of mutilating the party’s values and principles.

He said he would rather be alone than in group of people advancing an agenda he does not believe in for political expedience and personal gains.

He said if party leaders can try to advance their personal interests when they are outside government how far would they go in protecting the interests if they were giving the mandate to run the country adding that if the party does not adhere to its own rules then they have no moral rights to offer themselves for service to the nation.

And speaking on the same platform governance expert who is also former FODEP Executive Director McDonald Chipenzi said there are two people with the powers to stop political violence in the country.

He said President Lungu has only been issuing rhetorics but that he has not put his foot down saying every time the President issues a statement condemning political violence the opposite happens as members of his party will be reported to have committed the same crimes.

Mr Chipenzi said the other person who is in a position to stop the scourge is the Inspector General of police who he said is in charge of the Zambia Police.

He said the blood being spilt due to political violence is on the heads of the two leaders as they have failed to control the scourge.

He called on the civil society not to relent in their call for peaceful campaigns and elections saying their job will only become harder as the election date approaches.

He also called on the media to avoid falling into what he called Kambwili phobia by ensuring that they help the public with accurate information.

Journalist Chamba Chimba II has revealed that doctors had to castrate him as part of treatment for his advanced prostate cancer he was diagnosed with in 2014.

Mr Chimba who is famed for his controversial television documentary Stand up for Zambia disclosed that since he is medically castrated, he is not able to produce sperms but that he is still able to have normal sex.

He said as a castrated man, he is now having what is known as dry sex.

Mr Chimba was is now the founding President of the newly registered Prostrate Cancer Foundation of Zambia was speaking this morning when he featured on the Hot Seat radio programme on Hot FM.

“You know sex is on the mind, so I am able to have sex but it is just that I can’t produce sperms because the cells that produce the sperms cannot multiply but I am able to have sex normally. I have dry orgasm and I enjoy sex as vigorously as I can. Sex is in the mind,” Mr Chimba said.

Mr Chimba also stated that reports that frequent masturbation causes prostate cancer in men in later years are mere myths.

He said most men above the age of 50 are living with prostate cancer in silence and dying silently.

Mr Chimba said the major challenge in fighting prostate cancer is the silence that most patients and families live with.

“The biggest scare is for most men is that they will be castrated but it shouldn’t be. You can maintain your normal function as a man moreover there are different risk categorisation of patients and that means that treatment approaches also differ,” he said.

He added, “Some patients may just have surgery especially for early diagnosis and those at intermediate stage while some may end up with radiation but they can still maintain their function. Castration is only for advanced cancer which has spread to other parts of the body like the case was with me but I thank God and the medical staff at the Cancer Diseases Hospital for the treatment, I am now feeling much better.”

He said, “the key challenge is about silence. When I was diagnosed I started talking about this and I vowed that I must live to tell the story and that is how we started the Prostate Cancer Foundation of Zambia because there has not been any organisation to openly talk about issues of prostate cancer. I appeal to families to talk about this. I sat down with my wife and to tell her about my situation and I also discussed the issue with my bigger family about what I was going through.”