By Edward Chisanga

Dindi opened the gate and shouted, “Uncle, here I’m. I wanted to surprise you. Those who make appointments to visit you are not really nephews or nieces. Real nieces and nephews don’t. For why should they?”

I too shouted, “That’s fine. You come in. But you will pay for breaking the family rule.”

“How uncle?”

“Well, I have a sizzling economic puzzle in my mind. You know that the President launched the Public-Private dialogue forum this week? And the President believes that the private sector is an engine of economic development. Is it?”

“Yes, I know that he did launch. But I doubt that Zambia’s private sector is an engine of economic growth. I mean, what economic indicators are we using? I think what we ought to be saying is that the private sector is supposed to be an engine for economic growth. But in the past and today, its performance cannot be equated to engine of economic growth.”

“So, what economic indicators can we use to understand our private sector’s contribution to economic development or not? What makes you underrate our private sector so much?”

“Public-private sector partnership has been there the last fifty years. We used to hear about meetings between the two all the time. Kaunda had this partnership, in which the private sector listed all their challenges, expectations and needs. We saw manufacturing in the economy although state-owned blossom. As Figure 1 below shows, manufacturing value added in the economy as a proportion reached its highest peak of about 36% in 1992. Yes, the state-owned enterprises flourished much more than the private sector in terms of championing value addition. In most countries in the world, in particular in Asia with which Zambia shares many things such as culture, economic challenges, etc in common, it is the private sector which champions manufacturing. In Zambia, the private sector has, for many years failed to do that. Zambia’s private sector has failed to take Zambia’s manufacturing back to its peak of 36% proportion in the economy. “

“I agree with you nephew. It is inconceivable that Presidents coming after Kaunda never fostered manufacturing. Since the proportion of manufacturing in the economy fell from 36% in 1992 to 10% in 1996 to 11% in 1996, there has been a continuous downturn, reaching 8% in 2020. Surely, during all this period, the public-private sector partnership has been around. This private sector is always blaming government for its failure to compete regionally and internationally. Does it mean that all previous governments never knew how to support private sector?

“It’s clear uncle that Presidents that came after Kaunda fell short of focusing on manufacturing, hence consigning our country to the level of non-competitiveness. Zambia’s share fell from 36% in 1992 down to 8% in 2020. But look at the other African countries in Table 1 below. Their shares are quite magnificent, implying the significant role of manufacturing in the overall economies. These are the countries likely to benefit much more from the Africa Continental Free Trade Area because they export value added products compared to ours which exports primary commodities. These are the African countries that are surging while ours is backtracking. Although their actual exports of manufactured goods is still low and not as significant as those for South Africa, whose share of manufacturing value added in GDP is only 12%, and exports more advanced manufactured goods, they are potential champions of the future.”

Table 1: Top Sub-Sahara African countries’ manufacturing value added in GDP in percentages

Source: Unctadstat

“Finally, nephew, I see you also have this image of a graph below. What exactly are you showing?”

“I’m trying to translate the manufacturing in the economy into exports, to see the robustness of Zambia’s export value addition drive. Experts like the United Nations (UNCTAD) tell us, ‘A country is dependent on commodities when these account for more than 60% of its total merchandize exports in value terms.’ UNCTAD is not alone. Dani Rodrik and Margaret McMillan, two famous experts on Africa once wrote, ‘The larger the share of natural resources in exports, the smaller the scope of productivity-enhancing structural change. The key here is that minerals and natural resources do not generate much employment, unlike manufacturing industries and related services.’ Now look at the statistics of Figure 2 below showing the share of Zambia’s exports of manufactured goods in total of all product that we export to the world. The bottom line shows the share of manufactured goods while the top line shows that of primary commodities. What do you think?”

“It is clear that Zambia’s share of exports of primary commodities or non-value-added products is a whooping 90%, meaning manufacturing products are minimal. Again, it shows the under-performance of our private sector. Tunisia’s share of exports of manufactured goods in total stands at 81% and Viet Nam’s share is 87%. These are countries whose private sectors are seriously integrating in global value chains while we are not. They don’t lobby for public-private sector forums in order to advance. Perhaps their governments are fully focused on supporting them.”

“Thanks a lot my nephew as usual. Your insights are quite helpful. I agree that our private sector must quickly move from exporting tomatoes, potatoes, maize, eggs, vegetables, etc. Even those that boast of being Kings are only kings in Zambia. Let them extend their kingdom outside Zambia. More importantly to me, where are the indigenous black Zambians in the country’s private sector? What do they produce? What do they do? They spend more time chasing politics and importing posh cars while Indian, Lebanese and Chinese Zambians are selling steel or exporting the few manufactured goods. To me, a private sector that does not export, or sells within Zambia manufactured goods is as good as dead. Perhaps Zambia should open an Embassy in Viet Nam strictly for learning manufacturing. After all, Viet Nam has overtaken Africa in exports of manufactured goods.”

By Dickson Jere

I got an invite for late lunch with former President Rupiah Banda. He wanted to introduce me to “a very interesting” man whom he had met while in Atlanta Georgia in 2012 after he left office.

“You should listen to him attentively. He has great ideas,” President Banda said ahead of the lunch at his Lilayi house last year.

The three of us sat for a sumptuous lunch on the patio.

The “very interesting” man looked ordinary even though he was suited for the event and came with a laptop – ready for the presentation to me and the former President. The topic of discussion was power generation and biofuels in Zambia to help end load shedding.

Chiluwata Lungu is a Zambian professor based in Atlanta. He is a lead Combustion Aerothermal Engineer working for General Electric (GE) Power in the US. He is a genius who is also the man behind the Zambia Robotics – the team of young engineers that has taken the world by storm. Check them on CNN Inside Africa programs and have won awards internationally. Lungu is an expert in the manufacturing of aeroplanes and jet engines. He knows his stuff!

So, his take was that the brewing of Kachasu in Zambia should be encouraged. He believes the “Kachasu Project” can be a game-changer for the country and create employment for the youths and women, especially in shanty compounds.

“Kachasu is composed of ethanol which is a biofuel used for petrol,” he said, adding that it can also be used as fuel for cars.

“We need to change our mindset and perspective. Instead of looking at Kachasu as alcohol for drinking, we should look at it as a biofuel to power our economic growth,” he said.

The professor had figured. A drum of Kachasu is appropriately 200 litres and currently costs about K200, which translates to K1 per litre of Kachasu. But if sold as ethanol, it will cost K5 per litre, which is five times more than what the brewers get in compounds.

“We have a cheaper and greener locally sourced supply of fuel and Zambia can become a biofuel leader and exporter,” Lungu said while giving Brazil a good example of the country making money in biofuels.

As an expert in combustion, he said he is able to adjust most of the gensets in Zambia to start using Kachasu as fuels. It is very simple to do, he believes, given his experience.

“Kachasu is 20% ethanol biofuel, a green fuel alternative for petrol/gasoline,” he said.

“Imagine if our mothers and grandmothers can make Kachasu and ethanol biofuel in their backyards, what more can we do to transform our great nation if we put our mind and collective efforts to it,” he said.

After a three-hour lunch, I was wowed!

“Kana Nzelu Ku Munthu aka…” President Banda said to me after the presentation.

Last week, Prof Lungu got in touch with me even before the current Kachasu debacle broke out. He promised to take me to his farm in the Mungule area once he returns to Zambia to showcase how his genset will be powered by Kachasu.

So, my thoughts are – Just legalize and regulate Kachasu as a biofuel in Zambia!

NB. Prof Lungu is the man behind the Zambian Institute for Sustainable Development (ZISD), which also has a girls’ football team.