By Edward Chisanga
After reading PF Member of the Central Committee, Raphael Nakachinda’s statement, “Zambia’s economy is a national disaster, cost of living is extremely high for citizens,” I turned to my nephew, Kao, economic specialist, to shed light and provide further information for Zambians to understand what is going on.
I began by asking, “Nakachinda goes further to say, “Zambia’s economy is as good as non-existent ever since the UPND took over the governance of the country. Is that a fair statement?”
Kao was quick to respond, “I don’t want to engage in the debate about the so-called UPND’s unfulfilled economic promises. My concern is about the different perceptions that come every day about the economy, including of course the fact that money in circulation is short and living standards are poor. Both the latter are true, that money is scarce and poverty is increasingly visible. What seems to matter less to most protagonists and even those not so, especially common Zambians is answering the question: Who caused the economy to be a national disaster and to be as good as non-existent? Further, even if we find the answer, why are we simply saying that don’t continue blaming PF, simply fix it?”
“That baffles me too.” I answered. “Why are we losing momentum to pillory the culprits that left the economy in tatters and hold them accountable? Of course, UPND is in charge, hence are responsible for fixing it. But, our laissez-faire attitude is extremely dangerous. That is why we don’t punish past wrong doers who steal public funds and simply fail to grow the economy. Why are we expecting a dwindling economy of over eight years to be fixed in eight weeks of UPND rule and improve living standards of our people? Why has the narrative shifted from wrong doers to those who want to fix the wrong as wrong doers?”
Kao then retorted, “One reason is lack of use of, and understanding statistics. Often, we speak in generalizations and ignore statistics. If statistics were an integral part of our lives, perhaps we would understand more. Statistics show that PF’s eight-year rule was characterized by economic backwardness. For eight years of PF’s rule, the economy, measured by GDP growth and GDP per capita growth was absent, to say the least. Per capita GDP is the breakdown of Zambia’s economic output per each Zambian and is found by dividing the GDP by Zambia’s population. Often, Zambia’s economic growth is explained by GDP growth ignoring GDP per capita which stands for the proportion of each Zambian in the whole country’s income and, according to me is a more important measure and at the heart of each one of us. Whycenter.com tells us that it is for this reason that even a seemingly high GDP of a country can mean little if its population is high enough to bring the GDP per capita down.”
I could not help but add, “Under PF rule, the economy was largely immune to growth. President Michael Sata presided over a dwindling economy from 2011-2014 as Figure 1 below shows even when per capita GDP was growing from the preceding government. When Edgar Lungu took over leadership of the PF, per capita GDP growth tried to grow upwards but later confined itself to the downturn trend. More depressing, President Lungu left office with negative per capita GDP growth of almost minus 6% in 2020. How could he expect individual Zambian citizens to vote for him under the ailing economy which translates into less and less money into their pockets? Most Zambians are not having three meals a day. If he thought the construction success he made through roads, bridges, clinics and other things was enough to win him elections, he was shocked by defeat because most Zambians understood the economic trajectory much better than their leader.
“You’re absolutely right uncle.” Said Kao. “Most Zambians hear statements but few of these provide them with numbers to understand better. When numbers are put on the table, most will understand that PF ruined this economy terribly. It was not growing therefore, poverty increased in households. How can a government whose economy is declining each year want to be voted for in the next election? Why wouldn’t President Lungu see this shortcoming and simply terminate his political ambitions?”
“So Kao, please tell me the relationship between the falling PF economy and its impact on Zambians.”
“Uncle, it’s simple. It means that the poverty we see today in the country is a product of PF rule although PF inherited part of it from the past. When GDP per capita is declining during PF rule, of course it means that what each Zambian gets from the economy is diminishing too. That’s why it makes no sense to blame the eight-month UPND leaders for the economic messy we find ourselves in. Zambians are not having three meals a day due to past under-performance of leaders, the latest being PF. It is PF that made the Zambian economy a disaster. When we state these things, it doesn’t mean that we are looking for jobs from UPND. These are statistics speaking. If I were to speak about the Zambian economy five years after UPND rule, I would probably be saying the same things I’m saying now about PF as long as statistics provided for that. PF must own up and tell Zambians that the basis for UPND’s economic recovery is badly dented by itself.”
“But, I also think that it is self-approbation to think that a depressed economy of fifty-years can be fixed in eight months or ten years. Those who use statistics will know that in the last fifty-years, many economic indicators show that this economy is growing dangerously slow – in fact, it is not growing. Dani Rodrik once said, ‘The marginalization of Africa in world trade is entirely due to the slow growth of African economies.’ When the Zambian economy has not been robustly growing in the past fifty-years, and growth diminishing like in the PF era, we cannot cheat ourselves into believing that recovery will take place soon. Even IMF knows this but are not telling us. They’ll praise government when inflation goes down or macroeconomic stability is achieved, as if that is what economic recovery is.”
“Correct uncle,” She said. Economic growth is not only GDP growth. There’re many other indicators we have to take into account. Macroeconomic stability, growth of the manufacturing sector, agriculture, industry, and more importantly, when each Zambian begins to have at least three quality meals a day, good health, quality burial sites, good water, energy availability, pit latrines ended, etc.”
As the sun was going down, and my nephew had to leave, I concluded by suggesting to him that we can have another session for this important topic.”
